How long until the "we're in a bear market" people admit they were wrong?

brainactive

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Quote from: GelatikKembar on June 03, 2021, 02:20:18 PM

The pattern is the same as in 2017, the correction was 50% and then increased to more than 200% at the end of 2017,
and made Bitcoin hype, yes many bought it at that time including me, and until now I still hold Bitcoin, because I believe Bitcoin can reach $100000 in future/
collect Bitcoin before Bitcoin price gets more expensive Grin

The pattern is also the same as at the start of 2018, when it corrected more than 50% and then decreased steadily for the next 2 years.

So there are two potential scenarios:
1) We're in a mid-cycle correction (similar to what you mentioned)
2) We're at the start of a longer term bear market (the scenario I mentioned)

At the moment, it's not clear which scenario will play out, but most of the technical indicators are pointing to the 2nd scenario which is why the "we're in a bear market" people are pointing out the possibility.

The people who are using a DCA strategy don't care which scenario will play out because their investment strategy will stay the same, but the people who try to time the market are considering these two scenarios closely as it will determine their next move.

Whether Bitcoin is considered "expensive" now depends on your time frame.

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Quote from: thecodebear on May 25, 2021, 09:46:07 PM

Lots of people saying the bull market is over and we're in for a crypto winter. I think this is plainly obviously not true for numerous reasons.

How long until these people realize we're still in a bull market and market sentiment shifts from "oh no bear market" to "oh that was just a major correction"?

The pattern is the same as in 2017, the correction was 50% and then increased to more than 200% at the end of 2017,
and made Bitcoin hype, yes many bought it at that time including me, and until now I still hold Bitcoin, because I believe Bitcoin can reach $100000 in future/
collect Bitcoin before Bitcoin price gets more expensive Grin

proudhon

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Quote from: Kittygalore on June 03, 2021, 06:34:48 AM

Their ego are too big to let a simple admittance of defeat slide their mouths. Plus, I think it's too early to call the market has officially exited the bear market, maybe we can let it marinate for a while and see what happens to the market next.

It's not ego. It's certainty from of a perfect mathematical model.

Kittygalore

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Their ego are too big to let a simple admittance of defeat slide their mouths. Plus, I think it's too early to call the market has officially exited the bear market, maybe we can let it marinate for a while and see what happens to the market next.

proudhon

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Quote from: Jating on June 03, 2021, 04:53:21 AM

Quote from: Wind_FURY on May 31, 2021, 04:52:24 AM

OP, they were right. It was a “bear market”, but fast forwarded to 10x. In a normal state of the market, if Bitcoin fell from $60,000 to $30,000 from April this year to April next year, that would have been one year of bear market cycle. Thanks to Elon Musk FUD and everyone who panic sold, they made it 10x faster.

Yeah, but still early to conclude that we are still in the bearish cycle, the coin can still be flipped in the next quarter and see a bullish cycle again. $30k-$40k for now, still high from the our last bullish cycle in 2017.

We will forget about Elon Musk in the next 6 months for sure, his FUD will not be as effective as what we are, he could have some anti-bitcoin arguments, but for sure majority of investors are getting tired of him toying and creating a lot of FUD.

Instead of going $60k to $30k over a year, we did it in a week. And now the never ending, years long bear market bleed out will take us below $10k.

Jating

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Quote from: Wind_FURY on May 31, 2021, 04:52:24 AM

OP, they were right. It was a “bear market”, but fast forwarded to 10x. In a normal state of the market, if Bitcoin fell from $60,000 to $30,000 from April this year to April next year, that would have been one year of bear market cycle. Thanks to Elon Musk FUD and everyone who panic sold, they made it 10x faster.

Yeah, but still early to conclude that we are still in the bearish cycle, the coin can still be flipped in the next quarter and see a bullish cycle again. $30k-$40k for now, still high from the our last bullish cycle in 2017.

We will forget about Elon Musk in the next 6 months for sure, his FUD will not be as effective as what we are, he could have some anti-bitcoin arguments, but for sure majority of investors are getting tired of him toying and creating a lot of FUD.

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Quote from: magneto on June 01, 2021, 05:50:11 PM

Quote from: thecodebear on May 25, 2021, 09:46:07 PM

Lots of people saying the bull market is over and we're in for a crypto winter. I think this is plainly obviously not true for numerous reasons.

How long until these people realize we're still in a bull market and market sentiment shifts from "oh no bear market" to "oh that was just a major correction"?

I honestly think that both cases are pretty much equally likely.

The market sentiment has shifted to bearish whether you want to admit it or not. Depending on whether the $30k support or the $40k resistance gets breached first, the price action can vary significantly.

We simply don't know how the market is going to pan out in periods of extreme volatility like these. The level of FOMO but also fundamental growth are both in uncharted territory, and anyone who claims that they can predict the future is likely speaking out of their arse.

Market sentiment for short - medium term might be bearish, but long term it’s still bullish. Zoom out and check that Bitcoin’s price has never crashed below, and stayed below the 200-weekly SMA/EMA. If the price goes down near it, it has been a golden opportunity to buy more and HODL. Will that change in the future? Maybe, but I believe that probability for now is low.

magneto

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Quote from: thecodebear on May 25, 2021, 09:46:07 PM

Lots of people saying the bull market is over and we're in for a crypto winter. I think this is plainly obviously not true for numerous reasons.

How long until these people realize we're still in a bull market and market sentiment shifts from "oh no bear market" to "oh that was just a major correction"?

I honestly think that both cases are pretty much equally likely.

The market sentiment has shifted to bearish whether you want to admit it or not. Depending on whether the $30k support or the $40k resistance gets breached first, the price action can vary significantly.

We simply don't know how the market is going to pan out in periods of extreme volatility like these. The level of FOMO but also fundamental growth are both in uncharted territory, and anyone who claims that they can predict the future is likely speaking out of their arse.

Oasisman

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Quote from: thecodebear on May 25, 2021, 09:46:07 PM

Lots of people saying the bull market is over and we're in for a crypto winter. I think this is plainly obviously not true for numerous reasons.

How long until these people realize we're still in a bull market and market sentiment shifts from "oh no bear market" to "oh that was just a major correction"?

People have different definitions of bullish and bearish market, and they also have their own analysis and reference/market cycle to identify in what market we are in. But most of the time these people who call the market "bearish" everytime the price declines are nothing but here to spread a FUD to take advantage of the weak hands, and accumulate at the dip.
There were also those who back their words up with some reasonable explanations why they come up to such bearish market predictions.
Well, I myself as well believe that Bitcoin is just having it's major correction.

Wind_FURY

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OP, they were right. It was a “bear market”, but fast forwarded to 10x. In a normal state of the market, if Bitcoin fell from $60,000 to $30,000 from April this year to April next year, that would have been one year of bear market cycle. Thanks to Elon Musk FUD and everyone who panic sold, they made it 10x faster.

Back to the mean. Buy the dip, and HODL.

Dr.Osh

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After seeing bitcoin ATH hitting the $ 60k range, and making the altcoin price also go up so high, then the price suddenly dropping by almost% 50 the current price, I think it's natural for people to think that we are in a bear market. Well, that's if people look at the high prices. although our situation is different when the bitcoin price is still in early 2020 or 2021, but I think people tend to think this is a bear market after seeing very high prices. well, they will probably continue to think of a bear market if they see the prices continue to fall.

bittick

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Both scenario could play out but even if bitcoin able to climb up to $55K after the dump or based on your post it's a "major correction" then it's already enough to make those people admit they were wrong after all hitting that amount isn't some measly achievement
but trust me, they keep saying we're in a bear market for reasons and one of them is to accumulate in the very bottom of the dip, I mean what else right? they keep making statement like that because they are in cut loss position and trying to recover their money by scalping and buyback.

Argoo

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Quote from: thecodebear on May 25, 2021, 09:46:07 PM

Lots of people saying the bull market is over and we're in for a crypto winter. I think this is plainly obviously not true for numerous reasons.

How long until these people realize we're still in a bull market and market sentiment shifts from "oh no bear market" to "oh that was just a major correction"?

In practice, I don't see much difference between a deep and long correction and a bear market. The fall in the price of bitcoin from $ 60,000 to $ 30,000 is very impressive, especially since two weeks have passed since such a drop, and the price of bitcoin is now still at the level of $ 35,000. If the price of bitcoin does not recover in the next few weeks, then most likely this will not happen until the fall. I think that in this case, the next wave of cryptocurrency price growth can already be expected in the fall, from about October. How this period can be called - a deep correction or a bear market, does not matter much anymore.

goaldigger

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Quote from: thecodebear on May 25, 2021, 09:46:07 PM

Lots of people saying the bull market is over and we're in for a crypto winter. I think this is plainly obviously not true for numerous reasons.

How long until these people realize we're still in a bull market and market sentiment shifts from "oh no bear market" to "oh that was just a major correction"?

Monthly chart says its a bull trend but if you’re going to look at the price, you should think again because its starting to go down. Its ok to see this as a bear trend, is just that we are open for every possibilities and we all know the bear trend is inevitable, and many will surely be trap on top again, time can tell.

elziw

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Quote from: Silberman on May 29, 2021, 04:49:01 PM

Quote from: ultrloa on May 26, 2021, 05:41:54 PM

Quote from: Hypnosis00 on May 26, 2021, 05:28:25 PM

Quote from: thecodebear on May 25, 2021, 09:46:07 PM

Lots of people saying the bull market is over and we're in for a crypto winter. I think this is plainly obviously not true for numerous reasons.

How long until these people realize we're still in a bull market and market sentiment shifts from "oh no bear market" to "oh that was just a major correction"?

Actually, these people are just playing their minds. They tried to manipulate their own and themselves believe that the market is already in the bear season. Okay, let's say that these people are premature and they only realize once they become mature...that it takes so long, I don't know.

Until such a time that there is no criteria or chart to know if we are either in the bull or bear season some people might blindly see it and think in a different way. Have someone could show it? coz I'd never found it, maybe other members here have already seen it.

The past days bitcoin drop can be called a bear market season already but what good thing there is it happen on short time period. Maybe the amazing adoption happening this year help bitcoin to recover fast thats why we see it now slowly pumping up and maybe we will see it touched at $50k this year again.

I really think that many people do not even know what a bear market is, a drop in the price no matter how big cannot be considered to be a bear market, a bear market means a negative tendency, with the keyword here being tendency, we need to see several months of downward movement before we can even say this is a bear market, for all what we know this could have been just a heavy correction and if the price goes up once again during the next weeks then any chances this was a bear market will evaporate at that moment.

Well in fact the bear market term is borrowed from stock market however crypto currency has its own rules and I personally don't know what defines a bear market in crypto. What I do know though that if you look to the chart of bitcoin (and almost all other altcoins have skyrocketed) the price has gone from 10K to 50K between September 2020 and April 2021 this is the biggest increase so far by price volume. Which means that if this correction did not happen the whole crypto market could have crashed very violently. This correction was a bit late in my view and this could be explained by the euphoria around crypto. Now to get the price going up again we do need an important demand, good news from crypto projects and money pouring in by investors. This will happen but it will take time. I hate feeling the gamble sensation when investing... So far what is happening is logic so let it be.

Silberman

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Quote from: ultrloa on May 26, 2021, 05:41:54 PM

Quote from: Hypnosis00 on May 26, 2021, 05:28:25 PM

Quote from: thecodebear on May 25, 2021, 09:46:07 PM

Lots of people saying the bull market is over and we're in for a crypto winter. I think this is plainly obviously not true for numerous reasons.

How long until these people realize we're still in a bull market and market sentiment shifts from "oh no bear market" to "oh that was just a major correction"?

Actually, these people are just playing their minds. They tried to manipulate their own and themselves believe that the market is already in the bear season. Okay, let's say that these people are premature and they only realize once they become mature...that it takes so long, I don't know.

Until such a time that there is no criteria or chart to know if we are either in the bull or bear season some people might blindly see it and think in a different way. Have someone could show it? coz I'd never found it, maybe other members here have already seen it.

The past days bitcoin drop can be called a bear market season already but what good thing there is it happen on short time period. Maybe the amazing adoption happening this year help bitcoin to recover fast thats why we see it now slowly pumping up and maybe we will see it touched at $50k this year again.

I really think that many people do not even know what a bear market is, a drop in the price no matter how big cannot be considered to be a bear market, a bear market means a negative tendency, with the keyword here being tendency, we need to see several months of downward movement before we can even say this is a bear market, for all what we know this could have been just a heavy correction and if the price goes up once again during the next weeks then any chances this was a bear market will evaporate at that moment.

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Quote from: thecodebear on May 25, 2021, 09:46:07 PM

Lots of people saying the bull market is over and we're in for a crypto winter. I think this is plainly obviously not true for numerous reasons.

How long until these people realize we're still in a bull market and market sentiment shifts from "oh no bear market" to "oh that was just a major correction"?

If they look at price graphs from the beginning in 2010 they can realise that we are always in bull market from the starting.But what can we accept from immature market traders who just shift their sentiments from one to another and keep on speculating wrong prices prediction.Every market has bear and bull so is the case with cryptos but you need to more calm in this crypto world.Another ATH is going to be achieved this year crossing $64k mark also and then they will be like we missed investing at $40k or even lower.

ice18

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Haha right OP most holders are shakin out in the last 2 weeks I strongly believe that we are not in top yet of the bull market we are still in uptrend those retail investors who sold their btc into whales will buyback again at high price for sure.

maydna

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Quote from: Twinscoin2017 on May 27, 2021, 12:44:01 AM

Quote from: thecodebear on May 25, 2021, 09:46:07 PM

Lots of people saying the bull market is over and we're in for a crypto winter. I think this is plainly obviously not true for numerous reasons.

How long until these people realize we're still in a bull market and market sentiment shifts from "oh no bear market" to "oh that was just a major correction"?

Those who says we are in a bear market maybe the bitcoin price reach thier limit, i think they set a limit and when the price of bitcoin fall down and reach the limit price they will quickly say that bull market is ended, in my part i can say that the bull market is still up, and my limit price is below 20k$ if the price of bitcoin fall down below 20k$ that was the time that I will say that bear market is starting btc is now still 37k$ that was still high price so I don't think bear market is starting.

It is normal to see people say that we are in a bear market because we see bitcoin price drops too deep, and they think that bitcoin can't increase to the last high price at $64k. Perhaps, they desperate because of losing their money from the bitcoin investment, so they say that the bull market is ending and change into the bear market.

Hopefully, this situation will change soon, and the bitcoin price can increase to the high price and make a new ATH. I agree that the $20k will be the sign of the bear market because that is the last ATH in a few years ago, so if the price does not drop to that price, we are still bullish.

tertius993

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Given this is from the person who said we were never going below $50k again ... Huh

... I think more interesting to ask when are we “no longer in a bull market?” It has been six weeks since the high, if the next ATH is, say, 6 months away is that still a bull market? Or is it actually the next bull market?

And more to the point does it matter anyway?

Topic: How long until the "we're in a bear market" people admit they were wrong? (Read 437 times)