How low do you think the chinese volume will go, now that PBOC is auditing them?

mtwelve

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Quote from: BTCLovingDude on January 28, 2017, 08:23:13 AM

Quote from: Denker on January 28, 2017, 07:55:33 AM

Quote from: mtwelve on January 26, 2017, 11:31:35 PM

Seems like we're either going to try to rest mid-high $900's again. If we keep trying and continue failing, we're bound to go down eventually. But it seems as of right now, all things are well, better even without China.

Yes I can see another attempt coming to break the $1000 again.
If we should fail we will probably go down.How much has to be seen then.
In terms of China it's not like they don't exist anymore.It's just that there role is not that much significant as many thought.I see this as a good thing.Especially for a possible future ETF approval. Very good sign for investors imo.

you speak as if it is a sports game where the athlete tries to beat a record and gives up after a while! Cheesy

price moves up based on the demand and the attention it is getting, and that is rising with new investors coming in and buying more bitcoin and also all those whales who sold a while back to create panic are not accumulating again. and price will go up because of these things.

in case market was not ready to break $1000 and by any chance there were some resistance, it will come down to previous levels (at this point it is $920) and start up again.

If you have see the typical patterns Bitcoin has had in the past, or any altcoin for that matter, if a key level is tested multiple times and met with resistance, the price tends to go down. While yes price is influenced by market demand to an extent, Bitcoin and cryptocurrencies is still highly speculative.

BillyBobZorton

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Quote from: mtwelve on January 31, 2017, 11:16:37 AM

Quote from: d5000 on January 29, 2017, 07:14:59 PM

I think we will see the real Chinese trading volume in about two weeks.

While on the first days after the introduction of the fees the volume was still relatively high (I guess some of the traders had forgotten to turn off their bots, or were continuing to try to make profit) after January 27 it has gone even lower because of Chinese New Year. These festivities will continue until next weekend, so it will be in the second week of February where the situation will normalize and we'll see the real volume.

As for the price, I think it's a bit bearish because some part of the "to da moon myth" was based on the Chinese volume (all media saying "Chinese are moving their money into BTC", what was only true for a very small part of the population). As this has been rebutted, a part of the adoption myth is falling down. For now, I expect the price will be determined by the outcome of the blocksize war - if things continue stuck like now, I expect a drop and a retest of 780-800.

Which makes now a good time to cash out. The only thing that leaves me hesitant is the fact we're seeing a nice price increase right now. Thoughts?

The power of china in the bitcoin market was always overrated. They played a lot with the fake margins and whatnot, but the demand for bitcoin has always been real. Bitcoin can go up to 1000$+ again easily with anglosphere money only, we never needed the chinese exchanges, anglo countries can stablish new ATH themselves.

mtwelve

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Quote from: d5000 on January 29, 2017, 07:14:59 PM

I think we will see the real Chinese trading volume in about two weeks.

While on the first days after the introduction of the fees the volume was still relatively high (I guess some of the traders had forgotten to turn off their bots, or were continuing to try to make profit) after January 27 it has gone even lower because of Chinese New Year. These festivities will continue until next weekend, so it will be in the second week of February where the situation will normalize and we'll see the real volume.

As for the price, I think it's a bit bearish because some part of the "to da moon myth" was based on the Chinese volume (all media saying "Chinese are moving their money into BTC", what was only true for a very small part of the population). As this has been rebutted, a part of the adoption myth is falling down. For now, I expect the price will be determined by the outcome of the blocksize war - if things continue stuck like now, I expect a drop and a retest of 780-800.

Which makes now a good time to cash out. The only thing that leaves me hesitant is the fact we're seeing a nice price increase right now. Thoughts?

d5000

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I think we will see the real Chinese trading volume in about two weeks.

While on the first days after the introduction of the fees the volume was still relatively high (I guess some of the traders had forgotten to turn off their bots, or were continuing to try to make profit) after January 27 it has gone even lower because of Chinese New Year. These festivities will continue until next weekend, so it will be in the second week of February where the situation will normalize and we'll see the real volume.

As for the price, I think it's a bit bearish because some part of the "to da moon myth" was based on the Chinese volume (all media saying "Chinese are moving their money into BTC", what was only true for a very small part of the population). As this has been rebutted, a part of the adoption myth is falling down. For now, I expect the price will be determined by the outcome of the blocksize war - if things continue stuck like now, I expect a drop and a retest of 780-800.

BTCLovingDude

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BTC to the moon is inevitable...

Quote from: Denker on January 28, 2017, 07:55:33 AM

Quote from: mtwelve on January 26, 2017, 11:31:35 PM

Seems like we're either going to try to rest mid-high $900's again. If we keep trying and continue failing, we're bound to go down eventually. But it seems as of right now, all things are well, better even without China.

Yes I can see another attempt coming to break the $1000 again.
If we should fail we will probably go down.How much has to be seen then.
In terms of China it's not like they don't exist anymore.It's just that there role is not that much significant as many thought.I see this as a good thing.Especially for a possible future ETF approval. Very good sign for investors imo.

you speak as if it is a sports game where the athlete tries to beat a record and gives up after a while! Cheesy

price moves up based on the demand and the attention it is getting, and that is rising with new investors coming in and buying more bitcoin and also all those whales who sold a while back to create panic are not accumulating again. and price will go up because of these things.

in case market was not ready to break $1000 and by any chance there were some resistance, it will come down to previous levels (at this point it is $920) and start up again.

BitFinnese

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Quote from: Qunenin on January 25, 2017, 09:31:03 AM

Quote from: BrewMaster on January 22, 2017, 01:51:55 PM

things are getting pretty interesting in Chinese markets. the fake volumes are fading away, the zero fee seems to be no more an option on the 3 major exchanges out there and so far there was a pretty significant drop in the volume.

i don't think it can affect the price, but instead it will affect the swings, which means it will make the swings smaller.

Although fake volumes are fading away, still is it making any negative impact on bitcoin volume and price. No, it is not.
As i have learnt this that now bitcoin is not controlled by fake volumes. People are really interested in this and this will make bitcoin more stronger.

Yes it does not give any negative impact instead, I think it gives the opposite. Since huge fake volume is out of the circulation, I think traders will now have a more accurate prediction of the market. Though I don't think that this will effect Bitcoin Price since nothing had change just the fake volume being gone.

Denker

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Quote from: mtwelve on January 26, 2017, 11:31:35 PM

Seems like we're either going to try to rest mid-high $900's again. If we keep trying and continue failing, we're bound to go down eventually. But it seems as of right now, all things are well, better even without China.

Yes I can see another attempt coming to break the $1000 again.
If we should fail we will probably go down.How much has to be seen then.
In terms of China it's not like they don't exist anymore.It's just that there role is not that much significant as many thought.I see this as a good thing.Especially for a possible future ETF approval. Very good sign for investors imo.

panju1

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Quote from: mtwelve on January 26, 2017, 11:31:35 PM

Seems like we're either going to try to rest mid-high $900's again. If we keep trying and continue failing, we're bound to go down eventually. But it seems as of right now, all things are well, better even without China.

mid-high $900s isn't bad at all. We would steel need a step up from current levels.
As long as the Chinese don't decide to dump bitcoins in the changed scenario, we should be safe.

mtwelve

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Seems like we're either going to try to rest mid-high $900's again. If we keep trying and continue failing, we're bound to go down eventually. But it seems as of right now, all things are well, better even without China.

sportis

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Veni, Vidi, Vici

I could be wrong, but after a short period nothing really will change. Of course, at first, is obvious that trading volumes will be affected until traders find the way to adapt. In the end situation shall return as is nowadays because for Chinese there are no many alternative reliable solutions to transfer abroad their fiat money.

mtwelve

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Quote from: Qunenin on January 25, 2017, 09:31:03 AM

Quote from: BrewMaster on January 22, 2017, 01:51:55 PM

things are getting pretty interesting in Chinese markets. the fake volumes are fading away, the zero fee seems to be no more an option on the 3 major exchanges out there and so far there was a pretty significant drop in the volume.

i don't think it can affect the price, but instead it will affect the swings, which means it will make the swings smaller.

Although fake volumes are fading away, still is it making any negative impact on bitcoin volume and price. No, it is not.
As i have learnt this that now bitcoin is not controlled by fake volumes. People are really interested in this and this will make bitcoin more stronger.

Looks like price is testing $890, which seems to be a key support area. If we get below $890 I wouldn't be surprised if we saw price come down to the low $800's.

Qunenin

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Quote from: BrewMaster on January 22, 2017, 01:51:55 PM

things are getting pretty interesting in Chinese markets. the fake volumes are fading away, the zero fee seems to be no more an option on the 3 major exchanges out there and so far there was a pretty significant drop in the volume.

i don't think it can affect the price, but instead it will affect the swings, which means it will make the swings smaller.

Although fake volumes are fading away, still is it making any negative impact on bitcoin volume and price. No, it is not.
As i have learnt this that now bitcoin is not controlled by fake volumes. People are really interested in this and this will make bitcoin more stronger.

cellard

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Quote from: silverbox on January 24, 2017, 08:03:43 PM

Volume is down around 1 to 2% of what it used to be. I did not think 98% of the chinese volume was fake.. But it sure seems that way..

The Chinese are addicted to gambling and money, it was clear that they were fucking around at ridiculous levels with all that fake volume. It would need to be researched what is considered as fake volume tho... margin trading with bitcoins you dont own is not necessary "fake" as long as both parties reach an agreement.

European Central Bank

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They have bots to reprogram on top of getting a feel for how it's gonna behave from now on.

Give it a few days before deciding what it truly looks like.

silverbox

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Volume is down around 1 to 2% of what it used to be. I did not think 98% of the chinese volume was fake.. But it sure seems that way..

1Referee

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Quote from: alyssa85 on January 22, 2017, 05:40:35 PM

They are definitely checking that no more margin trading is taking place, because the exchanges didn't have a licence to lend money. Volumes are bound to come down if there is no margin trading and fees are applied on every trade.

We should find out by the end of the week what real volume looks like on those exchanges.

Trading volumes will get affected directly, but I think the real impact will be visible after a few months. Major traders there will change their trading methods as flash trading isn't interesting anymore due to the fees that they are subject to. It surprises me that this announcement from the PBOC has lead to such a level of dumps while I think it's fantastic news. The price should have moved in opposite direction. But as always, people let the negativity come first while they don't even know what's going on. It's purely blind panic that takes over their entire mind...

alyssa85

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Quote from: darkangel11 on January 20, 2017, 05:17:45 PM

Quote from: ?? on ??

Is the PBOC really auditing them or just saying they are?

I think they are auditing, but it's nothing big. Have you seen the interview with Bobby Lee? He said the government is just making sure the exchanges are willing to comply and are aware of all the rules and regulations. It's just a show of force, they are not trying to shut them down or they would have done it already.

They are definitely checking that no more margin trading is taking place, because the exchanges didn't have a licence to lend money. Volumes are bound to come down if there is no margin trading and fees are applied on every trade.

We should find out by the end of the week what real volume looks like on those exchanges.

BrewMaster

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things are getting pretty interesting in Chinese markets. the fake volumes are fading away, the zero fee seems to be no more an option on the 3 major exchanges out there and so far there was a pretty significant drop in the volume.

i don't think it can affect the price, but instead it will affect the swings, which means it will make the swings smaller.

romero121

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Quote from: darkangel11 on January 20, 2017, 05:17:45 PM

Quote from: ?? on ??

Is the PBOC really auditing them or just saying they are?

I think they are auditing, but it's nothing big. Have you seen the interview with Bobby Lee? He said the government is just making sure the exchanges are willing to comply and are aware of all the rules and regulations. It's just a show of force, they are not trying to shut them down or they would have done it already.

As mentioned its just an audit that makes clear about the transaction taken place through the exchange. This helps to have an accurate calculation of the bitcoin each exchange holds. Its not an effort to destroy the exchange or bitcoin functionalities. Its to have a cross check to keep the economy of the country in a stable manner in relation to the economic change caused by the bitcoin exchanges.

darkangel11

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Quote from: ?? on ??

Is the PBOC really auditing them or just saying they are?

I think they are auditing, but it's nothing big. Have you seen the interview with Bobby Lee? He said the government is just making sure the exchanges are willing to comply and are aware of all the rules and regulations. It's just a show of force, they are not trying to shut them down or they would have done it already.

Topic: How low do you think the chinese volume will go, now that PBOC is auditing them? (Read 2133 times)