Betting 80% of your bankroll on one outcome of a match is madness. It is a direct path to poverty. Let me remind you that a draw is only one of three outcomes of a football match in a single bet. In some cases, a draw has a more favorable probability if, according to statistics, such matches end in a draw more often. There is a conspiracy theory that bookmakers influence the outcome of a match. And, in their opinion, there are certain game scenarios in which a draw is highly likely. These are games in which equally strong opponents play and both clubs have many fans. At the same time, fans of their clubs bet on their favorite team not because they predict their victory, but because they support their favorite team. It is believed that in such matches a draw is more likely.
Yes, I confirm, this scheme works in situations of fixed matches. The main difficulty is how to determine whether the match in the situation under consideration is fixed or not?
Here, in my opinion, you need to study the reputation of the coach. Here it is necessary to conduct a small detective investigation. If it turns out that the coach is a dubious guy who has already been involved in similar bad stories, then there is a high probability that the match is fixed.
The next step is to assess the popularity of both sports teams and roughly estimate the number of their active fans. Such an assessment will certainly be subjective, but it must be done. In general, the method is quite effective. Unlike such gambling games as roulette, a player who is well versed in all the intricacies of the sports industry has every chance of making successful predictions and making a profit.
The main problem here, in my opinion, is how, being a successful player, to look like an ordinary player to an outside observer. This is quite a difficult task.