Topic: How probable is a contentious Hard-fork in the next few months? - page 2. (Read 1023 times)
I don't think it will happen until late summer or fall.
I think miners "support" BU mainly to counter segwit. Their idea is most rationally NOT to provide a scaling solution, unless they are convinced that bitcoin's market price suffers *significantly* from that non-scaling, which, as markets show us, is absolutely not the case.
As you say, most traders involved in price speculation are trading off chain IOU's. The real market effect might not have twigged on yet, or might be severely constrained if you look at BTC crypto market cap % share falling.
Miners have all advantage in keeping the number of transactions a scarce resource, as every product with inelastic offer for which there is large demand can rise very high in price. So, miners don't really like scaling solutions. The (idiotic) fact that block sizes have been limited to very small sizes (1MB), hard coded in the protocol, is an unexpected but lucrative benefit to them, especially when block rewards fall.
On the other hand, miners don't want the market value of the coin they are mining, to be affected. They are probably potentially ready to scale the amount of transactions if otherwise the coin becomes worthless. But I think that this is actually not a driving force. For the moment, block rewards are still the principal revenue, but fees are making up about 20% of the miner revenue. As such, a scaling solution that would bring down the tension on the fee market would need to rise the bitcoin price by more than 20% for this to be attractive to miners.
Chances are that fees will only increase over the coming months. Suppose that fees represent similar amounts of income than block rewards. Miners would only be favourable to scaling, if they were convinced that bitcoin's market value would DOUBLE because of the scaling. This is not the case, because bitcoin's price is NOT mainly determined by small on-chain transactions, but rather by off-chain (exchange) trading. So I can't see miners ever be favourable to any scaling solution.
I think miners "support" BU mainly to counter segwit. Their idea is most rationally NOT to provide a scaling solution, unless they are convinced that bitcoin's market price suffers *significantly* from that non-scaling, which, as markets show us, is absolutely not the case.
On the other hand, miners don't want the market value of the coin they are mining, to be affected. They are probably potentially ready to scale the amount of transactions if otherwise the coin becomes worthless. But I think that this is actually not a driving force. For the moment, block rewards are still the principal revenue, but fees are making up about 20% of the miner revenue. As such, a scaling solution that would bring down the tension on the fee market would need to rise the bitcoin price by more than 20% for this to be attractive to miners.
Chances are that fees will only increase over the coming months. Suppose that fees represent similar amounts of income than block rewards. Miners would only be favourable to scaling, if they were convinced that bitcoin's market value would DOUBLE because of the scaling. This is not the case, because bitcoin's price is NOT mainly determined by small on-chain transactions, but rather by off-chain (exchange) trading. So I can't see miners ever be favourable to any scaling solution.
I think miners "support" BU mainly to counter segwit. Their idea is most rationally NOT to provide a scaling solution, unless they are convinced that bitcoin's market price suffers *significantly* from that non-scaling, which, as markets show us, is absolutely not the case.
If BU had the economic majority behind them, they would have forked ages ago.
When you have the power (by power, in this instance, I mean support of the economic majority), you don't need to talk, you just do.
So, how crazy are the pool operators who supposedly support BU? Time will tell.
When you have the power (by power, in this instance, I mean support of the economic majority), you don't need to talk, you just do.
So, how crazy are the pool operators who supposedly support BU? Time will tell.
How probable is a contentious Hard-fork in the next few months?
Are you doing anything to prepare for the coming shit-storm?
Are you doing anything to prepare for the coming shit-storm?
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