Topic: How similar is this Crash to the 2011 one? (Read 2110 times)

you never really know how many people are running nodes from CHina, because they might be under proxies.

Russia at least has no great firewall

Russia has a government making more unfriendly noises, has a population one ninth of China's, yet runs twice as many nodes.

Their government hasn't made friendly noises and any attempts to make it actually useful have been squashed. There's zero merchant use there so why invest in altruistic infrastructure? They trade the coin itself and that's it.

Why would the Chinese trade but not participate. Other countries do not exhibit this peculiarity.

But if they're mainly trading the coins, why would they need to run that many full nodes? There's almost no incentive for a trader to run a full node!? They are just in Bitcoin for the trading aspects.

True, but it would have to affect China to a vastly disproportionate degree to put it beside America.

some full nodes run over proxy. Numbers might not be accurate

Yet amazingly, China is only running 152 full nodes at this moment. See here: https://getaddr.bitnodes.io/

I know you were addressing someone else, but....it feels similar in some ways. Certainly the sentiment on this forum and in the media is as absurdly bad. But now there's a robust Bitcoin ecosystem, and other places where Bitcoin is discussed (twitter, reddit, zapchain). The mood in these other places is much better than here. No one likes the price crash, or course, but the people actually working to advance the Bitcoin ecosystem every day have more of a long-term attitude. They're the ones who see the advancement and really understand the tech, ideas, and potential, so the price is something of a sideshow.

BTW, this bear market has indeed been longer than 2011, and it's looking like it'll be longer to regain the ATH (it was 20 months after the June 2011 high). But what was scary about 2011 that doesn't exist now, in my opinion, was the existential threat. There's a robust ecosystem of bitcoin companies, investors, users, holders, etc, now; by comparison, there was basically nothing in 2011. It did seem like people might just forget about cryptocurrency for a number of years at that point. Hence the 94% drop: only those of us who had really mentally dug in for the long haul held (or bought more).

By contrast, this bear market could certainly result in a slog through an extended period of depressed prices, but ecosystem activity will continue to be robust for years. So despite the fact that this bear market has been longer (which is expected with more players and more money driving the corresponding boom phase), it's considerably less worrisome.

 

One would have to be crazy to trade bitcoin with any certainty. I never traded something as hard as bitcoin. No, I have a tight stop.

The point is more or less that: many bitcoiners are currently bullish, singing "to da moon", but, perhaps, the party is already over or they are obliviously listening to the last music and having the last dance. And someone will have to pay the bill or clean the dishes. Or, maybe, do both things.

lol the media have destroyed bitcoin since 2010. Does that mean anything?

I think essentially a huge part of it was a mispricing of risk. High-risk assets were being priced like low-risk assets. A+ ratings were given to assets that were a high B, at best. The idea was that if you bundled enough crap together into one big lot, the level of collective risk was reduced. Of course, when the entire housing market collapsed, it didn't matter that the assets were diversified, because essentially all housing went down in value.

Gotta love these fools who been around since 2010 and supposed to be chillin on a $10 mio yacht in bahamas or something but in actuality, they somehow lost money.

Can't blame them though, I'd be pissed as fuck too if I were in their position.

Since you have quoted the example and with what we saw during the 2011 crash, then you should believe that we are supposed to reach the bottom anytime soon and from there will slowly continue the uptrend. If that happens, there's nothing to worry about as it would be a good opportunity to buy coins at cheap price. I've allocated my funds for this.

Well, things do feel kind of different - kind of bullish - this time, after all. I gotta say, I also think the volume and action is reminiscent of old 2013 price action. But I agree that it's too early to call this a definite bull market.

not everyone.

People in the wall observer are in buylish mode right now

You seem very confident. That's a bold step, shorting now. Well, the thing is: If everyone expects Bitcoin to go lower, it sometimes has the tendency to just do the opposite. I guess we'll have to wait and see how this plays out!

Volume is indeed important and the jump in volume can't be ignored, but I'm afraid the 151/166 won't be the bottom. It's no important support, compared to 2011 the price still has a lot to drop and I can't see force in this reaction to the crash: it looks like a retracement.

Disclosure: I'm shorting this, I think the 242 were the top, but if you think my post has anything to do with this, you must considerer that I have my posts in very high esteem. It's absurd to think that an anonymous post can have any influence on bitcoin prices. Bitcoin isn't an insignificant alt coin. Its price is driven by the chineses and most of them can't read english or couldn't care less for what we write here. Trolls trying to influence the price with their posts are as ridiculous as wolfs trying to scare the moon with their howls.

Really? I'm not so sure about that. For all we know we might very well still be ahead of the biggest bubble still! It could very well be that we're about to see the really big money flowing in any day now. Maybe only in a couple of years, maybe never, who knows... I just want to point out that there's no way of knowing what orders of magnitude we're talking about!