Topic: How things will progress over course of evening. (Read 2194 times)

Assuming (hoping) we hit bottom the other night, I got in at about as decent a time as I really think I could have.  I really didn't think it'd fall below 450 or so (blind luck guessing), but I wasn't going to wait for it to hit that number.  Bought in at around 500.

Really all I can do now is wait to see whether it pans out or not.  

Cheers!

I'm looking at good long-term fundamental indications (increasing infrastructure, increasing awareness, increasing acceptance), and I've been buying steadily for the last couple weeks while the Gox debacle has been dragging it down.  I've acquired coin between $550 and $620, and stayed the hell away from Gox.  I expect its value to at least double sometime in the next three months. 

I don't try to sweat the market day to day and hour to hour.  That way lies madness.  Let the pumpers, technical analysts, and speculators play that game, it has little effect on the scale of weeks or months or years.  I prefer to look at longer-term indications.

It doesn't matter when you buy or sell, there will always be people calling you crazy for doing something. If I'd say I'm going to go all in at 580 right now there will be people like Fonzie or zyk calling me crazy buying these super expensive coins and that we're going down to double digits. Same story if I said I would sell everything right now, only different names. Gotta ignore those fools man. But you should do what you have to do, I just think it's a lot of wasted energy when you could make it a lot easier for yourself.

Bottom line: Matt bought in high $400's and after watching trading activity has picked up his chips after a nifty profit of $50+ per 20 coins and waiting for the next crash into the $400s (in other words he's shorting). The rest is just blah blah blah.
I've got a much simpler method. Take a look at a current chart, I like Bitcoinwisdom because it's easy to read for dummies like me. see the way the price has dropped since a steady couple weeks in the $800s? it's like a ball bouncing down stairs. You get a drop and a bounce back up, each time the drop is lower and the bounce back up is lower than the last bounce up. The trend is continuing, and I agree with Matt about what will happen next.

Sure, maybe we'll go lower. I have Fiat waiting. Point is, I'm hedged against either outcome.

Go tell that to all the noobs that were told by Bitcoin Nutter that $800 Bitcoin was cheap Bitcoin, cos it was going 2 da moon, and that they should dive in with as much 'worthless fiat' as they could possibly muster. I was told that not only at $800, but was called crazy for selling $1000 Bitcoin on this forum.

U should go and take a little look at TERA's thread: https://bitcointalksearch.org/topic/charts-completely-different-ta-than-any-other-btc-reversal-in-history-489756

Neither the 1 day RSI or the MACD of this latest crash are consistent with the reversal of a bear phase. $400 might not be the bottom.

Once you have identified the long term trend (hint: UP) then you just want to get in at a good price. Bottom picking is a dirty business, so just buy when you think you're getting a good deal, and then if it goes lower take advantage and buy more.

But you can't buy at the absolute bottom, only if you're really lucky. Almost always when you buy the price will go lower again afterwards, and probably more than you are comfortable with. So why not just choose a price you think is acceptable based on trend analysis and stuff and simply place buy orders there? I'm pretty sure you will get a better price this way rather than waiting for all your indicators to align and you are 100% sure we're in an uptrend that will continue for a while.

Unless the market continues to bear trend in which case he will be holding a bag full of overpriced vapour, like so many others around here who happened to buy into the HODL philosophy at the wrong time in the market.

You'll probably be just fine then.

If I had 1000 coins to sell off, I would want the best possible price. I would not just place a 1000 limit order into a static market. When someone does that, it can only be because they are trying to knudge and push market psychology in a direction. I have sat and watched these 1000 BTC single orders appear on both sides of the Wall a few times. First time, on the Ask Wall, which resulted in scared Bitcoiners doing a runner from it the instant it went up, and then on the Bid wall, chasing the price up to break out from the mould......Some whale was clearly trying to tip the scales in an upward direction, by first instigating a slight panic run, followed by a much more potent charge.....it never worked out that amazing but my stop loss was certainly triggered.

....what seems to be happening with this one is....

....absolutely nothing.

The market is dead. Nobody wants to make a move either direction. Whatever the planned effect of the Wall is intended to be, the effects will be minimal.

Do you trade Bitcoin at all?

If so, how do you get by with this totally naive assumption that all that goes down in the market place is a big bunch of traders happily and honestly buying and selling Bitcoin?

Do you not get totally fkn shafted all the time?


Correct.

I can't bring myself to imagine a lower low than $400 at this point in time. But one thing that is certain is eye wateringly lower prices than we have currently.

Mat is turning bullish , he sees how strong bitcoin hold despite the gox debacle.

he
he's just making stuff up and losing money in the process it sounds like.  nobody can tell you why a buy or sell wall exists... or tell if someone is painting the tape -- that is buying his own sell orders to increase volume.


yeah the opportunity today was to feed the shorts at .1 to .2 pct per day btc on bitfinex

Or, MAAAYBE somebody with a lot of coins wants USD, and somebody with a lot of USD wants those coins?

Maybe they're trying to squeeze out all those sweet shorts people have going and cause a crazy spike where they can sell into? Not that I know whether this is truly all being manipulated, but if it is I would think that would be their aim.

Man I wish I knew what the hell you guys were saying

I just look for a reasonably low price, try to get in there, and hold on. 

All this technical trading talk is hurting my head, lol

Update.

There goes the whale on Bitfinec/Bitstamp again, with his 1000 BTC walls. This time it is an Ask wall right at spot price...

Ooh the suspense.....is he gonna buy up his own wall thus creating a panic buying upsurge to give impression of impending break out......or is he going to dump a shit load as soon as the organic upsurge support he is looking to create gets into place to hoover up a shit ton of coin he bought down in the $400s?

The suspense is killing me.....

......just not enough to be foolish enough to enter this market, neither short or long.

I was a bull for the whole of yesterday......came out far too soon though, literally 2 minutes before the 6000 BTC mad buying surge at $750, so I let myself off for not seeing that coming.

Right now, far more downside potential than upside all things considered, but that is not to say that it won't be pushed up a bit witnessing current events.

Not a good time for normal Joe's to enter or exit market here.....there be nefarious deeds getting played out here by some whale rat trying to empty everyone elses USD into his koffers. If it breaks out of pennant formation then there is not likely more than a $20-$30 in it, if it fails to break pennant then it is just going to rebound at about $579 again before heading back up.

Shite day, glued to this like a fly to site, all just to lose $250 in the end.


Agreed. This market will break in short term in which ever direction results in the most amount of people emptying USD into this whales pockets.

I am out.

I closed my last short after we dipped to mid $400s, and I don't see myself going short again until I am very confident the down trend continues. I was tempted when Stamp broke $600, but ... too risky at the moment. Order books are still painted green.

MatTheCat, the bear that tried to become bull but couldn't.