An interesting subject in itself, you can develop and optimize your idea, but in the end you always need luck to be profitable with betting on sports. You could also choose to look for the gray area so that you always have a big advantage, but bookmakers will act against that. And then I mean as an example a situation in which a goal is scored but the VAR then intervenes. Then you have odds that are initially based on the goal scored, you could quickly bet on that in the knowledge that a goal could be disallowed. But as I write, I think bookmakers can close your account because of this. So it's not worth the risk.
For me luck is another factor of sports betting. because before we bet, the first thing we have to know is, we know for sure what we are doing. in other words, in sports betting especially football. The first rule is that we must know very well about the leagues that will be part of the betting. second, we have to know, the system in betting regarding odds and so on. third, we must really understand about football itself. in this context, referring to the reference the OP's theme created this thread. from what I said at the top of this post, it's all related to the points the OP made a long list. btw, the VAR problem is part of the mechanism that occurs when a match is held or started.
Well, like I said before, that luck is another factor. that means, someone who wants to be a sports gambler like the OP said. to get victory, there are mechanisms that we have to do some of which the OP has outlined in his thread. in short, to minimize defeat. someone who bets, must involve his insight, knowledge, as well as his skills in terms of analysis and research. after going through this mechanism, we will get a conclusion and that is what is considered in the bet. After that, we just leave it all to luck.
In any gambling game, luck is always a factor that is in play for the final results.
But in sportsbetting, the more you know about a specific sports, the higher your chance of winning.
And coupled with luck, you can hit the winning streak. However, don't get too confident that you will win in every bet.
You still have a lot of factors that you can't account for as those are like your blind spots such as actual performance in the field, or their strategies.
However, the longer years you are following the sports, the more confident you will be in placing your bets, you can also bet on other betting lines for better results.