Topic: How to predict the start of a new Bull Market using a data driven model - page 2. (Read 239 times)

Good day. November is still a long way to go but its good news nevertheless. Still hoping the bull run will come early. The market is covering slowly. Well at least we will be having a merry Christmas by the looks of it. Just hodl. Not selling altcoins at a loss.

The date in november is not really the point, no one can predict the exact date. But the reason I shared this is I think many are not aware that the cycles are much longer and therefore the current situation is nothing to worry about.

I think if more people would connect these dots then there was less panic and anxiety in this space.

Well, it would be nice, but last December was so great for crypto, because of the hype, that it will change so many things.
It didn't.
However, it could. There are some genuine great ideas. Howeverm most of the crypto world is just based on wrong ideas in my opinion, and destined to fall.

I mean, I completely believe there will be another bull market at some point, but I can't help but think of the phrase you common hear over and over again in relation to traditional investments:

"Past performance does not necessarily predict future results."

Just because previous bear markets have lasted x amount of time, does not in any way mean this one will be a similar length of time.

your predict in november will be a bull run, so many my friend predict thats november will be a green and green for cryptocurrency...i hope its happen before october

Lot's of people are currently worried and think about leaving the market.

People saying that alts go to zero and it's game over for Bitcoin or the previous atm will never be reached again.

After reading this you will come to the conclusion that there is no reason for that at all.

I am sharing here a model used to calculate the average time between Bull and Bear Markets as well as the percentage of the Bitcoin price increase during the bull run and the decline following the Bear Market.

It is called Predictive Analytics, and based on examining historical data, identify patterns and predict the future.

You can use this analysis to precisely predict the next Bull run and the approximate price appreciation.

Price Appreciation vs Depreciation in Bull vs Bear Markets


In the recent years Bull Runs the price of Bitcoin increased by 2900%, 1000%, 995%, 1950%
On average the price appreciation of Bitcoin was: 1698%

In the following Bear Markets the price of Bitcoin decreased by 93%, 72%, 72%, 68%
On average the price depreciation of Bitcoin was: 76%

Average Timelines of Bull and Bear Markets  

Average duration of Bull Markets in recent years: 420 days
Average duration of Bull Markets in recent years: 315 days

Duration of current Bear Market: 222 days

Mathematical projection of new bull market: 92 days

Based on this model it is likely we will see a new bull market start on 15.11. 2018

Now this is not speculation, but a predictive analysis based on historical data.

The data points to 2 main conclusions.

1. During a Bull Market the prices increase significantly more than they decrease during a Bear Market.
2. Once a cycle changes it takes a lot of time for a reversal, during these times the value consistently increase or decreases

Looking at this model, there is no reason for any panic, we are well with the parameters.

In the past the market has always recovered, in other words after a long bear market there was always a new bull market, It is normal that after a 6 months bear market people are starting to loose hope. But if you look at the data 6 months are not that long.

I hope this helped you to get some hope and a more positive outlook.

(In case it did you give a more positive outlook I would welcome some merit, thanks)