Topic: How to Recognize a Bubble (for the stock market.... see any similarities?) - page 2. (Read 4441 times)

They say you can tell a bubble when the taxi driver is talking about the stock haha that one always makes me laugh.  don't see how this relates to the current Bitcoin price but that is just an opinion.

This is interesting and useful but as all the others say BTC Is NOT A STOCK and will never be one.

bitcoin can grow forever because there are multiply ways to get it like selling goods and services.... You dont just have to buy it! Think about it!!!! Yes if the onlything i could do with a bitcoin is trade it for cash then yes I would be like hmmm how much higher can this thing go, but when you can trade something for a fraction of it... It has potential to go to the moon and beyond. And goods and services will just keep getting cheaper and cheaper.... Will be like Thiland in the US... and Thiland x 100 in Thiland! Since they will be the last to jump on board. So quit with the F#cking bubble shit already, Sell you coins or the 1 coin you have and leave! I will need a gardner,a butler, and maid in the future so dont buy any bitcoins and sell the ones you have!

The force says: no buyback before $400.

Ardana was never me to begin with.
He's just some other guy. I have no idea why he's using my picture. Huge man crush I suppose.  


Tan tan taaaan!

Since the market took a pleasure in showing me how wrong I was, I decided to learn from Masterluc's teacher (Waveaddict).

No prediction here. Just a warning.
Redditors are throwing money at this hoping to become rich overnight...

I am. (But I profited awesomely form this rise.  )

There's no "burden of proof" because nobody can declare whether bitcoin is a bubble or not, unless they own a time machine. Viewing in retrospect is key here, which we simply can't do yet.

First we have to determine if there is in fact a bubble. The burden of proof is on the accuser.

I think what this tells us is that Bitcoin has characteristics that make it prone to become a bubble. It does not tell is if it has become a bubble yet or not. The bubble might be only starting when it goes above 10k per coin for example.

Also remember that becoming a bubble does not make something a scam or worthless. Real estate markets often bubble, but housing always has value and utility in general.

For cryptocurrencies, I think that list could use another one between 3 and 4:

Idea draws in amateur 'heroes' and 'revolutionaries' from inexperienced backgrounds with delusions of grandeur, imbuing the investor with a false sense of 'mission' or 'camaraderie' that seems to override the 'petty' concerns of personal greed and self-congratulations.


I really wonder, how many of the so-called libertarians and political/economic experts on this forum actually ever held a position of real power in their respective national governments/financial institutions? In fact, how many of them have actually experienced true political, financial and social power that those who move nations and policies employ on a daily basis? Have they actually experienced the position and power of those they claim to 'rise up against'?

I have only seen glimpses of them, and never experienced them personally. I don't think reading Ayn Rand gives me a moral guide to judge what I have not experienced. But throw in a new currency idea that you can use to 'fite da powa' and all of a sudden every monkey on a typewriter is a goddamn che guevarra.

Also, I hope everyone's joking about this 'illuminati' bullshit. I question the motivation of such talk more than the content, but still the content is pretty damn foolish on its own.


On the other hand, as many of stated, I believe the concept of cryptocurrency is a cat out of the bag. Whatever direction in whatever form it goes from this point on, with or without bitcoin, crypto is here to stay and earn its place in the world.

But before that it will have to adjust itself to some realities. Bubbles will pop.

I still believe in new things although bubbles tend to be created around them, mostly because we behave like sheep and we don't really think. It all boils down to good management of expectations IMHO.

Good article though. Thanks!

I will quote this again because it is a good summary.

'Before we relegate a speculative event to the fundamentally inexplicable or bubble category driven by crowd psychology, we should exhaust the reasonable economic explanations. Such explanations are often not easily generated due to the inherent complexity of economic phenomena, but bubble explanations are often clutched as a first and not a last resort. Indeed, “bubble” characterizations should be a last resort because they are non-explanations of events, merely a name that we attach to a financial phenomenon that we have not invested sufficiently in understanding. Invoking crowd psychology—which is always ill defined and unmeasured—turns our explanation to tautology in a self-deluding attempt to say something more than a confession of confusion.' - Garber, Peter M; Famous First Bubbles

I understand the press like to tell the easy story, but we can only truly know a bubble after it has occurred.  For my money the volatility in Bitcoin is very unlike other bubble patterns and may be a good indicator of an explosive technology rather than a bubble.   

True. I keep catching myself being unrealistic in bearishly thinking that it will stay under $1,000,000. Hyperinflation will likely take care of that.

Saying that bitcoin is a bubble is so 2011. There should be a point in your point list:

13. If it blows but never lower than it was before then raises again then it is no bubble, silly

Hi Frozenlock

So ardana is retired now?

Worst

Edit: this guy is a top fud spreader who staunchly said that btc wouldn't see 100$ again this summer. Be careful listening to him.

I used to think that bubbles could be defined by charts that hadn't had corrections to the daily ema to support the price in a while, and the price was just kind of floating up too fast without any support. At $1250 I thought we were definitel'y NOT in the bubble phase yet and that  I was home free because there had already been a strong correction (on Dec 1) and the price was now supported.  Then the whole China thing happened. Due to a lack of support by Chinese buyers, and fear, and exact replication of a bubble pop occurred. It took me completely by surprise. So now I am clueless and back to the drawing board.

"7. Fear of missing the boat takes over. Cloning of the idea occurs as many new overvalued competitors enter the market."

This is the one that makes the most logical sense to me. The others that you bolded can be said of pretty much anything.

Fresh out of wit, I am trying though.   Check my post on the godislove thread...   https://bitcointalksearch.org/topic/m.3912114

I was laughing the entire time.   No love for the joke on the thread though. Has no one seen fight club?

because everything that happens happens exactly the same way

Are you out Frozen?