To understand your risk when trading anything you need knowledge. You can't become a currency trader overnight.
Forex has been around for sometime before cryptocurrencies. These people established an industry and have provided plenty of educational material to help people learn to trade.
First off, there is fundamental analysis and technical analysis. Long term traders use fundamentals more and short term traders look at technical (charts) analysis more - but both are needed.
Don't trade news is something you hear often in Forex.
Once you learn how to use the two analysis types above, and test test test various strategies that work, you will become better at reading the market by just eyes and ears.
Know what a bubble or pump and dump looks like. Don't get caught in these unless you are good at technical analysis.
Learn what ceilings (resistance) and floors (support) are. Learn what Fibonacci is and how it's used on a chart... etc, etc.
I'm no expert. I've dabbled with forex for many years with small money, and have won many trades and lost some as well.
Here is a site I used to learn trading:
https://www.babypips.com/learn/forexIt's not specific to crpyto but you can get a bump in knowledge here.
I truly believe forex and crypto are matches made in heaven. I lean towards fundamental analysis based on creation costs more than technical analysis. This has led me to be usually too early in my trades, which I am always striving to improve. In 2017 I was too early on numerous trades by 2-4 months. Now I have generally shortened that to 1-2 months. I have learned that the market moves slower than I originally expected, and I have developed my risk analysis with that in mind.
You can find my crypto fundamental analysis here:
https://www.amsinger.org/sample-analysisMarkets are constantly changing and growing, good analysis is what gives us the power to measure that.
Aaron