About the second question. Trading the ETF directly will not have effect on bitcoin price,
the foolish game of asking "what will happen to price if".... is that if everyone asks it and comes to same assumption. they then pre-plan their trades to get ahead of the "what will" thus then affecting the "what will" to then become the opposite
using historic events pattern of similar hype to estimate future pattern, is only as good as the limited users that recognise/plan for the pattern
if everyone knows it.. it wont occur because everyone is trading against it
EG
if everyone expects the price to get to say $70k this week
what actually happens with this expectation is. less people actually buy now and instead start getting into a selling position from $50k plus, meaning that less buyers and more sellers means it then never gets to $70k
this is why if bitcoins max premium for ATH estimate for 2024 is $140k. many influencers shout $300k-$500k to keep buyers interested in buying upto $140k so that influencers can sell upto $140k
otherwise if everyone shouted $140k max. people slowdown buying at $100k+ and it never reaches $140k
