Topic: How Will The Upcoming Recession Affect Bitcoin? - page 2. (Read 490 times)

If a day comes when nations around the world are printing excess piles of fiat in an effort to tax, print and spend their way out of debt. Bitcoin will do a far better job of maintaining its value and stability in comparison to government issued cash, due to it being deflationary.

In past recessions, we've witnessed consumers purchasing big screen TV's, electronics and physical goods due to those things being expected to hold their value better than devaluing cash. Necessity being the mother of all invention, it is possible future recessions and currency devaluation could do more to foster crypto mass adoption than anything we've yet witnessed.

How well crypto performs during recession/depression depends upon policies and legislation adopted by governments.

If world leaders are sympathetic to 99%'ers and wish to protect their economies, they will make it easier for consumers to transfer wealth to crypto in order to preserve their savings. Devaluing fiat can eventually destroy all wealth denominated in it, which can wipe out decades of accumulated savings. If however world leaders want their people to suffer and for their economy to be destroyed, they will place heavy bans on crypto, gold and other assets which consumers utilize to protect their wealth against hyperinflation.

People often cite gold as a good investment during recession/depression. Watching current news, its very common to see banks and governments buying up stocks of gold at an alarming rate. It might be depressing to consider banks/states expecting a big crash in the near future which would explain them cornering the gold market before severe economic downturn sets in.

Bitcoin boomed in 2009 exactly same time when stocks begin his bull run after sell off
Reason of that rebound was massive printing. With tons of printed money emerging markets was going up very fast.But emerging markets and emerging asset were after huge sell off
If answer for recession will be yet another printing then part of that printed money will goes in to btc
But Bitcoin price will rise even without printing because of halving

When the time of recession comes, there will be a variety of change in terms of finance or stock. But it will not have a big impact on crypto currency.

Digital economy is by using crypto currency and not everyone understand that so we need to enlighten people the benefits and good effects of this platform. It takes time and effort but it'll be worth it when they are already knowledgeable about it.

For some people who experience regression, they said that it just a simple conflict but people should think wisely and smart to overcome this kind of hindrance or circumstances in BTC.

Well, it could be positive, in the sense that bitcoin - with the impossibility of creating inflation - becomes the only safe haven, in addition to gold, or goes to zero because there will be nothing left to exchange it with. Certainly, something dramatic will happen.

Come on, guys. Let us be more consistent the next time around and not just post for the sake of posting.

eaLiTy is saying that if there is a major global recession then the entire market will bleed and nothing will escape that. And then he goes on saying that the entire market starts falling. But then he suddenly isolates Bitcoin by saying that Bitcoin is not going to have the same issues as the rest of the market. But then he wrapped it up by saying that there is no safe market when there is a major global issue. This man is joking.

And you are responding with another joke.

Recession is normal. It happens to the market. There is always a cycle in the market and recession is part of it. And even if you wish that it will not happen, it will still happen.

Recession will happen but there will always be recovery that comes afterward.

It is true that capitalist economies have entered a period of arrest every 10 years and have had a heart attack at regular intervals. One of the main reasons for this is injustice in income distribution. Therefore, the capitalist order is doomed to collapse in the long run.
If there is a major recession in the world, the blockchain and cryptocurrencies will prevail.

There are many predictions, some positive, others negative, and some concern a real recession, if not a global collapse of the economy.
But no one knows for sure what will happen, so - while it is important to use caution - it does not seem to me a good idea to be paralyzed and scared.

That's the reason why investors are in a hurry to sell all their bitcoin and with that the market will bleed. I am not wishing that this will happened in the future because a lot of us have been affected so let us wish the recession will not happened. We need to work more to keep the our economy goes up.

Not so sure about that assessment. Satoshi was probably the only miner on the network when the 2008 recession officially ended. By the time Mt. Gox launched in mid-2010 and efficient price discovery began, the recession was way in the rear view mirror:

Eh...bitcoin was introduced to the world right at the beginning of a huge recession and existed and thrived all the way through it.  By the time the economy had recovered in 2013 or so, bitcoin was hitting a huge high.  So that statement isn't exactly true.  What's true is that it hasn't been through the next recession, which I guess is what this thread is about.

Now, this "upcoming" recession thing: I have no doubt that the stock market and economy can't continue to boom forever.  We've been in one of the longest bull markets in history, but as they say the laws of gravity apply to economics too.  What I'm not sure of--and what no one can be sure of--is when the economy is going to start heading south.  Right now things still seem to be pretty good, though I confess I don't stay abreast of financial news anymore.

My best guess as far as bitcoin is concerned is that it might crash right along with the stock market.  When stocks start to slide, investors tend to move their money to more stable assets like bonds, metals, real estate, and the like.  I have a feeling that money isn't going to move into crypto--it's just not safe enough (and that's a serious understatement).  As it stands, there are probably a lot of people investing in bitcoin who can't really afford to do so.  What do you think is going to happen if unemployment numbers start to increase?  Yep, they'll sell their bitcoin for whatever they can get. 

But hey, I could be totally wrong.  As I said, bitcoin did boom right through the housing/banking crisis of 2008-20XX.  In any case, I'm hoping the next recession doesn't come soon and that bitcoin will at least retain most of its value.

where do bitcoiners get this idea that crypto markets exist in a bubble?

people are buying and selling bitcoin for real fiat currency---where do you think that fiat money goes/comes from? the economy. buyers have disposable investment capital from their jobs or other successful investments.

but what happens when investors are losing their jobs and their investments are tanking like in a recession? new investment capital dries up. and those job losses might hit bitcoin investors too. if forced to choose between starving and selling bitcoin, most hodlers will choose the second option.

all in all, that spells increased supply and decreased demand. that's an obvious recipe for lower prices.

I honestly feel like there would be a bit of difference between selling your bitcoins for extra money to pay for stuff during recession. For example, the first one would be easily covered by the whales buying but at the same time we will still have miners selling which whales usually cover.

Second one is not that easy because they already lost money on stocks and they would want to recoup that money quickly and gold will not make that money that quickly, they really will stay in bitcoin. Third one could be true and I believe those people who have excess money and not even care about how much bitcoin they have might so that is true. I have no idea about the fourth, the truth is I actually have no idea what parabolic runs means . That is why I find 1 correct, 2 wrong and 1 indecisive on these.

It's all about what happens in the world during this recession. There are many risks, fears, and uncertainties in the markets that make investors flee to cryptocurrencies as they make better gains than the stock market.
We have a lot of stable currencies and a lot of platforms that will try to make the price above $ 1000 at normal levels and thus will be more keen to buy, especially as prices allow it.
If the price collapses below $ 1000, we may lose a lot of hodlers and move slowly or die quietly.
Generally, over the next decade, we will see either a great boom or a crash in stages.

It can happen that recession come after the bull run and next ATH. There is less and less chances for that but it still is a chance. Also. Biggest chunk of wealth is in hands of small elite. They dont need to sell anything since have plenty of everything already or most likely dont have any Bitcoin now.  When they see things crash they might consider it. Of course Gold will be strong contender here.  If recesion strikes next year, that will for sure postponed the bull run of current bitcoin cycle.

That's what people hope for. Bitcoin however is a risk-on asset that investors generally buy into for its up side, but are prepared to let go of it when the tide turns against them.

When people lose their jobs their priority won't be to buy either Gold or Bitcoin, they'll sell assets they don't necessarily need to comfort themselves with a stacked bank account that will get them through the forthcoming months without having to worry about bills they can't pay. It happened in the past as well, so it's not that it hasn't been put to the test yet.

I'm happy to be proven wrong and see Bitcoin go up, because that's great for me too, but I wouldn't really put too much confidence in it.

I hope this does happen.

I'm prepared for both outcomes though.

My view is now quite simple about the recession period, because bitcon was born to reduce the severity of this recession.
people will gather cash to buy Gold and Bitcoin, they will hold it to go through recessions.
That is the strategy of most countries in the world and bitcoin is doing its job very well.

I don't think the recession will have a significant effect on cryptocurrency. Why? Because talking about cryptocurrency talks about the digital economy, whereas the digital economy map is now only concentrated in the United States and China.

The United States and China are far from recession. As for developing countries affected by the recession, most of the people are blind about the digital economy, so to educate the benefits of the digital economy takes considerable time and energy.

Based on the experience of a country that has been hit by a recession, the impact of recession is felt in all walks of life but the simple language is that people only need to live very frugally not like the end of the world drama.

One thing I disucssed in the video (time stamp below) is an anecdotal example of a thread created by someone looking to sell their BTC to free up cash for expenses, rather than dip into their emergency fiat cash.

https://youtu.be/faAjgUZJu0k?t=121

If users from Bitcointalk (who are going to be more clued up than the average retail investor) are selling their BTC to pay for stuff instead of spending their fiat, and at this stage.

Then think about how many people are going to be selling their BTC when the recession is in full force and people are really feeling the pinch.

You clearly have a long term perspective, but most retail investors are quite fickle and have a short term mindset when it comes to investing.

They don't really learn. That's why we see the same cycles every 10-15 years.   

While one can’t find fault with the scenarios you have listed, but in your own words you have admitted that no one knows how bitcoin will react when recession hits hence I believe we may see different scenarios.

1) Retail investors are not as foolish as they were in the past they know recession periods can last long, hence they won’t sell the only currency that has proven time after time that it can outperform the market.

2) Any institutional investors who chooses gold over bitcoin really needs to stop investing, but there’re hardly any institutional investors who’ll do that even when gold prices were rising we hardly saw bitcoin money being cashed out for gold.

3) Whales may just continue to hodl their coins, and will only sell if prices hit new peaks.