How would a global economic recession affect Bitcoin's price?

Mr.right85

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Quote from: Abiky on June 26, 2022, 07:32:39 PM

It's most probably Bitcoin will decline well below $10k, as the global economy comes to a halt. Or things could head in the other direction, leading Bitcoin towards new All-time-highs. The pioneer cryptocurrency has often been hailed as a "safe haven", so it should be able to serve as an alternative to Fiat during times of crisis.

What are your thoughts? Huh

I think we've had a recession or at least on most countries lately. A recession that followed the Covid-19 pandemic and the result was a slight bearish move that went to a few month and then a full move towards bulls followed. I guess this would be the same result to expect in any global recession as people would look out for alternative means to earn and cater for there daily needs.
This is some of the benefits the online platforms like Bitcoin/cryptos and the FX provides. Hence you'll have people tapping into this too and as well, the online gambling using cryptos.
Which ever way it goes, one thing is for sure and that is, bitcoin have got a huge role to play and it's sure to favour cryptos.

Abiky

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Quote from: Smartprofit on July 05, 2022, 10:45:54 PM

In my opinion, the current economic crisis will last another 1.5 years.

Currently, we see an increase in inflationary processes in the US and Western Europe. We have a recession and stagflation ahead of us. The US Federal Reserve will gradually raise discount rates (refinancing rates) up to 4 percent. This is the factor limiting Bitcoin's upside potential. At the same time, after some time, the world economy will come to an equilibrium state.

From 2024, a new period of economic growth will begin.

I expect the price of Bitcoin to exceed $100,000 in 2024.

I hope your prediction comes true, otherwise the global economy would be destroyed for good. Everything will depend on how long the Russia-Ukraine war and the COVID-19 pandemic will last. The longer we're stuck with these, the longer it'll take for the world's economy to recover. While Bitcoin is not issued by any government or central bank, it depends entirely on Fiat to maintain its value.

If the mainstream economy is in a bad state, you can expect Bitcoin's market prices to go down the drain as people sell it to meet their needs. The same can happen vice-versa. 2024 marks another Bitcoin halving milestone, so it's likely the market will become bullish by then. We've already entered a global economic recession, so we can only hope for the best. Just my thoughts Grin

edgycorner

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Yes, Bitcoin will suffer a huge blow. People stay away from risky investments during a recession, and bitcoin is considered a risky asset by almost everyone. Demand will almost die, and maybe continuous dumping will cause a bear market with no brakes.

We would be lucky if it stays around 10k, if things go south Lips sealed

trendcoin

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Unfortunately, today Bitcoin correlates with tech-heavy stocks like the S&P 500 and the Nasdaq 100. If Covid 19, the Russia-Ukraine war and other global tensions continue, the stock market crash will accelerate. Unfortunately, Bitcoin will also get its share of this collapse...

The digital gold Bitcoin is a tech product, but not a tech-promising asset. People seem to have misunderstood Bitcoin. In fact, it should be accepted as a limited supply commodity (gold, silver, etc). But for now, things are not going that way. Therefore, if the global economic recession continues, the Bitcoin price will be negatively affected.

LUCKMCFLY

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I think that in the mind of every speculator and investor that crypto has passed that event in their mind, and it is not bad, it is good to be prepared for different eventualities, however in the face of possible wars, and in the face of possible falls that have manifested in the USA and Europe where they have published that they are suffering the worst of all their inflations, if BTC has been ahead, the correlation is not exact, in the short term it is very minimal, but if it has a lot to do with investors, they immediately protect themselves with GOLD, but before anything, investors put everything in fiat money or hard currency, over time they will realize that BTC will turn out to be safer, but it is already a matter of the financial education that each investor has.

Smartprofit

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In my opinion, the current economic crisis will last another 1.5 years.

Currently, we see an increase in inflationary processes in the US and Western Europe. We have a recession and stagflation ahead of us. The US Federal Reserve will gradually raise discount rates (refinancing rates) up to 4 percent. This is the factor limiting Bitcoin's upside potential. At the same time, after some time, the world economy will come to an equilibrium state.

From 2024, a new period of economic growth will begin.

I expect the price of Bitcoin to exceed $100,000 in 2024.

Abiky

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Quote from: DrBeer on July 03, 2022, 03:24:52 PM

What the crypto market has now shown, in a situation of a protracted, really difficult, and really global crisis (Covid, war), confirms my assumption that bitcoin is not a "safe haven" and an attractive investment asset in times of crisis. You will say - "so, just recently, billions of dollars were poured into it! Many people got rich!..." Yes, it was, but in 2016-2018 there was no real global crisis. There were local pockets of problems, and there was cheap and affordable money. And then, even in the conditions of the cryptocurrency hype, speculation with cryptocurrency looked really attractive.
Now, when many countries do not know how to prepare for winter, others do not know where to buy grain and food now to meet domestic needs, and still others have lost millions of relatives (from illness, from war), they are investing in really demanded areas. These are food, oil and gas, alternative energy and the production of solar panels (the list is by no means exhaustive). But bitcoin has become useless to anyone ... Because it does not represent real value and significance for the real market. No, I even believe that it will cost 1 million dollars, but this is not now, not here, and maybe not bitcoin

Bitcoin has performed terribly during the COVID crisis, but that doesn't mean it's the end of the world. I think the main issue here is that the world is still stuck with the Fiat standard. As long as people use Fiat as a unit of account (mainly USD), Bitcoin won't be going anywhere soon. By itself, Bitcoin is a stable cryptocurrency that's the ideal safe-haven asset for anyone, anywhere worldwide.

I'm hoping the day comes where people pay for things using Bitcoin directly instead of converting it to Fiat. For instance, you'd pay 0.0001 BTC for a cup of coffee without having to worry about how much its worth in terms of Fiat. If people did that, volatility would no longer become an issue. Some say the economic recession has already started, so expect further price drops until the world decides to abandon Fiat for good. Just my opinion

sovie

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Quote from: sana54210 on July 04, 2022, 04:02:01 PM

Quote from: lixer on July 04, 2022, 06:48:29 AM

I think "pretty well" understanding for dollar is not the same with you and me. I mean just because that money is in the banks for the high interest rates doesn't mean that it is a good thing. Think about it, a lot of money is in interest, that means a lot of interest will be needed to be paid, and since recession the return will be very little and banks may fail to pay that back, at least not that high interest rates.

This will result with you getting to a point where it is not going to be a simple thing. Just wait for it, do not get hyped about it, and you could definitely reach to a point where things will be a lot better in the long run but right now dollar is horrible.

This is true, and I believe that it took USA about 150 years or more to reach the first 7 trillion printed if I remember it correctly, probably even more, then took them about 3-4 years to print the next 7 trillion dollars. That should be easy enough to see what US dollar means.

There isn't anything that could be considered at a good rate in the end. Which would be a deal where it could take a good amount of time to reach this place, but then it took very quick to repeat it. This is why I hope that the best thing would be slowing that down, because if they keep on printing like that again, then it would be super horrible and it would lose even more value.

The market is so unpredictable - we have not even in our wildest dream have thought that the whole world will be shut down in Covid and so much losses to businesses will happen in a jiffy. After I have seen that horrible COVID battle I have lost most of my interests in the materials. And also I dont make much plans because during last 2 years none worked out well.

sana54210

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Quote from: lixer on July 04, 2022, 06:48:29 AM

I think "pretty well" understanding for dollar is not the same with you and me. I mean just because that money is in the banks for the high interest rates doesn't mean that it is a good thing. Think about it, a lot of money is in interest, that means a lot of interest will be needed to be paid, and since recession the return will be very little and banks may fail to pay that back, at least not that high interest rates.

This will result with you getting to a point where it is not going to be a simple thing. Just wait for it, do not get hyped about it, and you could definitely reach to a point where things will be a lot better in the long run but right now dollar is horrible.

This is true, and I believe that it took USA about 150 years or more to reach the first 7 trillion printed if I remember it correctly, probably even more, then took them about 3-4 years to print the next 7 trillion dollars. That should be easy enough to see what US dollar means.

There isn't anything that could be considered at a good rate in the end. Which would be a deal where it could take a good amount of time to reach this place, but then it took very quick to repeat it. This is why I hope that the best thing would be slowing that down, because if they keep on printing like that again, then it would be super horrible and it would lose even more value.

lixer

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Quote from: davis196 on June 27, 2022, 05:21:53 AM

1.The US dollar is doing pretty well in 2022. The war in Ukraine helped for the drop of the Euro, so the US dollar is actually stronger than before. The Federal Reserve increasing the interest rates might add more value to the US dollar.
2. Everyone is talking about recession, but the recession might not come. There might be a negative net economic growth, which means bigger inflation and lower economic growth. Stagflation is also an option, but we don't know if the Saudi Arabians won't decide to increase oil production. The disruption of the supply chains is something that creates problems right now, but the global economy will adapt and new supply chains will be created.
3. The Bitcoin price might go down or it might do up. Nobody knows what will happen so all the opinions here are mostly guessing and fantasizing. Grin

If the global economy starts growing with a faster temp, the Bitcoin price will go up. If there's recession/stagflation, the crypto winter will continue.

I think "pretty well" understanding for dollar is not the same with you and me. I mean just because that money is in the banks for the high interest rates doesn't mean that it is a good thing. Think about it, a lot of money is in interest, that means a lot of interest will be needed to be paid, and since recession the return will be very little and banks may fail to pay that back, at least not that high interest rates.

This will result with you getting to a point where it is not going to be a simple thing. Just wait for it, do not get hyped about it, and you could definitely reach to a point where things will be a lot better in the long run but right now dollar is horrible.

mayfair_coin

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I believe most people agree that cryptocurrencies will grow relative to fiat currencies in the long term. As the debt bubble bursts, interest rates cannot fall below 0%, so central banks around the world begin printing money to provide liquidity to the market. This leads to higher inflation, with Crypto declining in value but not necessarily in value (versus gold for example), which will depend on Crypto widespread adoption and institutional investment.

CryptoHeadlineNews

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Quote from: Abiky on June 26, 2022, 07:32:39 PM

There have been talks among experts of a global economic recession taking place soon. The COVID-19 pandemic, the persisting Russia-Ukraine crisis, and several other factors will lead us there faster than you could imagine.

A global economic recession will definitely affect the price of Bitcoin, because come to think of it, What is a recession? A recession is a period of time when there is a temporary economic decline, of which the economy is the driving force of all currencies, be it digital or physical, and Bitcoin is no difference, but thou it may be decentralized but it's price is influence by a simple economic theory of demand and supply. Which simply means, the higher the demand of a limited product will cause an increase in price, and when the the demand is low it was cause a decrease in price of a product, and a recession will definitely case a less demand for Bitcoin, because take a look at the current price of Bitcoin now, that is as a result of Russia and Ukraine crisis.

DrBeer

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What the crypto market has now shown, in a situation of a protracted, really difficult, and really global crisis (Covid, war), confirms my assumption that bitcoin is not a "safe haven" and an attractive investment asset in times of crisis. You will say - "so, just recently, billions of dollars were poured into it! Many people got rich!..." Yes, it was, but in 2016-2018 there was no real global crisis. There were local pockets of problems, and there was cheap and affordable money. And then, even in the conditions of the cryptocurrency hype, speculation with cryptocurrency looked really attractive.
Now, when many countries do not know how to prepare for winter, others do not know where to buy grain and food now to meet domestic needs, and still others have lost millions of relatives (from illness, from war), they are investing in really demanded areas. These are food, oil and gas, alternative energy and the production of solar panels (the list is by no means exhaustive). But bitcoin has become useless to anyone ... Because it does not represent real value and significance for the real market. No, I even believe that it will cost 1 million dollars, but this is not now, not here, and maybe not bitcoin

teosanru

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Quote from: Abiky on June 26, 2022, 07:32:39 PM

There have been talks among experts of a global economic recession taking place soon. The COVID-19 pandemic, the persisting Russia-Ukraine crisis, and several other factors will lead us there faster than you could imagine. Considering that the US Dollar is the world's reserve currency, anything that affects its value (inflation) will have a chain effect over other countries' economies as well. Now this could have profound effects over Bitcoin's price within the short term, as the crypto market "mimics" equity/stocks market's behavior. It's most probably Bitcoin will decline well below $10k, as the global economy comes to a halt. Or things could head in the other direction, leading Bitcoin towards new All-time-highs. The pioneer cryptocurrency has often been hailed as a "safe haven", so it should be able to serve as an alternative to Fiat during times of crisis.

What are your thoughts? Huh

It can affect bitcoin in both the ways. I feel if there is a recession in the equity markets generally the crypto market gets boosted as this signifies distrust among people on equity markets. However on the other hand many times it has happened especially in Covid times that Bitcoin's fall is exactly linear to the fall of equity markets like it happened in March 2020, equity markets around the world were at all time low and so was bitcoin. So either of the two things can happen in Bitcoin.

vv181

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Quote from: Abiky on June 26, 2022, 07:32:39 PM

~Now this could have profound effects over Bitcoin's price within the short term, as the crypto market "mimics" equity/stocks market's behavior. It's most probably Bitcoin will decline well below $10k, as the global economy comes to a halt. Or things could head in the other direction, leading Bitcoin towards new All-time-highs. The pioneer cryptocurrency has often been hailed as a "safe haven", so it should be able to serve as an alternative to Fiat during times of crisis.

There are a time when the bitcoin price correlation with equity/stocks are high and also when it inversed. Currently, it is very likely that when the recession begins, I don't think bitcoin will have its own way instead it will mimic every other else. The idea of save haven has been idealized by some people, but as of now, we haven't seen any of it since I believe the market hasn't been mature yet.

2stout

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Bitcoin is a true global/universal currency and by this virtue, it will be affected by global events. Market panic seems to be transcendent, just look at the stock market and crypto markets and you will panic selling isn't limited to either. Unofficially, IMHO, the global economic recession has already begun.

kryptqnick

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Honestly, I've been waiting for a recession for a couple of years now, and maybe we'll just ease into it eventually with all that's going on (btw, war, not crisis, when it comes to Russia and Ukraine). In that case, I don't think Bitcoin will notice the difference. Or, maybe, it's already happening, and we're already seeing the negative impact on the price. In any case, I think that Bitcoin bear market is a matter of a few months, normally, while a global economic crisis can take much longer to recover from and no sudden rapid positive movement that can happen with Bitcoin. I'm judging here largely on how Bitcoin price reacted to the pandemic.

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Quote from: stadus on July 02, 2022, 10:20:59 PM

I heard it many times again, the global economy might struggle but bitcoin will always surprise us in a positive way.
What will happen is, if the stocks are dropping, investors who believe in crypto will put their money as it's not directly related to the global economy, and I will not even be surprise if that time we will again see a new bull run.

I feel like any institutional investor who has alliances with other companies sees Bitcoin as a hotbed of business, not strictly as an act of adoption to grow Bitcoin. In general, it might be said that way, but the essence is that institutional investors will leave the bear market just like that if they start to be exposed to financial liquidity.

Basically, the global economy is triggered when inflation is not contained and the resistance begins to penetrate every point of the economy, even the microeconomic sector feels this way. Bitcoin is still fixated on the level of financial circulation and when we see interest rates rising, it puts both stock and crypto market prices under threat. For a while investors will withdraw, and after a certain amount of time buying Bitcoin at low prices makes them more and more in control of the market.

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Quote from: stadus on July 02, 2022, 10:20:59 PM

I heard it many times again, the global economy might struggle but bitcoin will always surprise us in a positive way.
What will happen is, if the stocks are dropping, investors who believe in crypto will put their money as it's not directly related to the global economy, and I will not even be surprise if that time we will again see a new bull run.

When the global economy is experiencing difficulties I think it has an indirect effect on the crypto market,
like at this time the global economy which can be said is not doing well and with problems that occur such as inflation and so on of course this makes us worry,
to be more clear, just keep following the progress

stadus

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I heard it many times again, the global economy might struggle but bitcoin will always surprise us in a positive way.
What will happen is, if the stocks are dropping, investors who believe in crypto will put their money as it's not directly related to the global economy, and I will not even be surprise if that time we will again see a new bull run.

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