3. Sit on ~40k BTC wait for the ASICs to show up or not. At some point in 2013 (or even 2014) when that industry finally is mature buy ASICs at a fair price (probably less than 1/10 what they claim now).
"When the industry is finally mature", ASICs are not going to be paying for themselves in two weeks, or even 200 days. They'll approach the same average interest rate as everything else in the Bitcoin economy. So you are actually giving up on a unique opportunity by waiting for things to settle down. But if low risk is what you want, then I guess it is the right option.