1. replacement by a better newer cryptocurrency - there must be a formalized cutover mechanism that allows upgrades, this will allow continual improvement and avoid volatility associated with expectations of being killed by a younger sexier currency.
Unfortunately this is hard to do and I can understand why ripple's switch being flipped is being delayed. Updating the protocol once the cat is out of the bag is rather hard, especially for Bitcoin.
That means you should sell out of all cryptocurrencies until it's solved. That is my position. Think about what complaints your girlfriend and all your future girlfriends would have with it that are not solvable without an upgrade.
If your willing to accept very low or zero risk then what you say is true, get your money out of crypto!
However I am taking a risk that I am ok with. Bitcoin has first mover advantage so it seems like a good bet. I admit its a bet and a gamble but I am at peace with this reality.
2. supply must allow inflation - deflationary spiral will doom any transactional economy, any cryptocurrency must either have a perpetual built in inflation mechanism, or banks need to spring up to lend the cryptocurrency
What do you think of PPC?
Don't want to waste any time on non market leaders.
You state that a cryptocurrency with a inflation mechanism could be more viable than Bitcoin, and you dismiss the only serious cryptocurrency that has inflation just because its not beating Bitcoin at this moment? If you really thought that a cryptocurrency with inflation would be a better option then wouldn't PPC overtake Bitcoin eventually?
PPC is a market leader, its the leading inflation based cryptocurrency.
Apart from adoption, what do you think of PPC?
I actually trust the market to eventually be an accurate predictor. Hence the best cryptocurrency should be popular (and stable) if it addresses all the obvious issues the people bring up. Obviously I'm just rationalizing my laziness because the cryptocurrency competitive marketplace is not perfectly efficient which allows for hidden gems...
Anyway, took a quick glimpse now ONLY at PPC's supply description (I ignored all the other sections.) "For many years annual inflation of gold is around 1-3%. In ppcoin there are two types of minting, proof-of-work and proof-of-stake. The proof-of-work minting rate is regulated by Moore's Law, which dictates that our ability in proof-of-work grows exponentially. We are aware that Moore's Law eventually has to end, but by that time inflation in ppcoin is likely already approaching gold's level. The proof-of-stake minting introduces at most 1% annual inflation. Meanwhile ppcoin's transaction fees are destroyed to counterbalance these inflationary forces. So overall ppcoin's minting design is still a very low future-inflation design comparable to Bitcoin. "
My thoughts are as follows:
1) predefining a number by which to increase money supply is arbitrary. The challenge is to match money supply with money demand. This is how monetary value is stabilized. In the past and now, a centralized entity, the Fed, manages this delicate balance. IMO, they are doing a decent job (except being slightly biased toward the stimulative side.)
2) no algorithm can easily predict the monetary demand. If somebody is smart enough to create an algorithm to reflect this and incorporate into the supply algorithm, they solve what is likely impossible and also become the most important person in monetary history ever (even more than Satoshi.)
3) in the absence of #2, the only solutions are to either
a) have a competitive marketplace where external parties modify the money supply by lending in a fractional reserve system
b) have a competitive marketplace to control the monetary velocity of the currency, ie. the rate at which transactions can be conducted. ((b) is likely a naïve suggestion because, it assumes that people's desire and timing to conduct a monetary transaction can be controlled at the aggregate level.)
The equation I am basing my opinion on is here:
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Quantity_theory_of_money