Topic: Huge drop happening within 48 hours! (Update: BTC Price on Sept 5th) - page 3. (Read 1224 times)

He will pussy out at $5k... He will get scared.
As you say all his predictions are based on feelings. Feelings get in the way of good trading decisions...

He's talking about the general sentiment of the BTC market.

When the market is bottoming out and experiencing capitulation, there is usually extreme fear and pessimism in the air. Like when we were trading in the $3,000s and everyone began to expect the $1,000s. If people are only a bit scared, that suggests we're still in the middle stages of a downtrend and haven't experienced capitulation yet.

I don't understand why you make predictions like this, you made a mistake, even though your title still claims otherwise. Currently there is no indication that $9000 can be so easy broken, but you're pushing it to the greater extreme by saying "maybe $5k".

Your predictions are based solely on your personal feelings and wrong assumptions such as "People are getting a bit scared", but from what, new economic crises maybe? So put your money in Bitcoin, and price will go up if a high enough demand is created.

What I see here is your personal wish for huge drop, for one purpose only, that you can increase your stock. I say before that I give you 10% chance for first prediction, and I give you only 5% for this one.

this is the internet, where the most important thing is being right.


in a broad sense, yes. the monthly uptrend is very healthy.

but shorter term, we just broke down from a 2-week long bear flag, so we should expect more downward pressure IMO. i wouldn't say i'm expecting it but $8k is plausible over the next couple weeks. it would be a hell of a buying opportunity!

Quite evident, by the way the market at present is experiencing marginal fluctuation within specific price range. If I'm not wrong there is possibilities for the price correction to reach the $8500 range within a short period of time if the $9500 resistance level gets broken.

I cant, Ive still no idea what China or most of Asia is thinking.    They could be going into Bitcoin because of a requirement due to rising capital controls for all I know.  China is hard to read because their news is fake, their directives are authoritative but its also not actually what happens, their culture or thinking is really not familar and its opaque because they dont have free press, etc.  The problem in Hong Kong could be ironic in leading people to greater BTC use, not sure.    
   Generally we have a rise in stupid government and interference in economies from politics, too much debt and instability but thats a decades long trend.    Sentiment is kinda simpler to see that but still cant say for the whole world, the west seems to be the minority of what drives BTC .



This chart looks like the truck that drove over the side of the road on a steep hill and is now hanging.   However the chart can be marked in a number of ways but this was at least one trend lost.    I would like to short the recovery attempt rather then chase the previous fall expecting simple continuation.

It could be that way but I generally expect the market to upset everyone, all the carefully placed stops and orders get knocked over.   If thats the case we should be going down more then this, its too predictable to just repeat previous lows.

If I'm going to take my bullish hat off, I believe the OP might be slightly correct in that $9,000 will be tested again. But a "drop", and within "48 hours", no. Slow 14 day decline maybe.

I do not think what is happening and will happen in the near future a drop in the price of bitcoin. Now traditionally at the end of summer there is a relative calm in the markets and a drop in business activity. Therefore, regardless of how Bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies behave, I expect that in the fourth quarter the cryptocurrency market will rise significantly. Specific figures can already be announced with the onset of October.

a lot of things can easily happen. price could fall down to $100 in the next 48 hours or it can shoot up to $100k. but we have no reason to believe they are possible as there is no indication of market moving in either direction.
so far entering the $9k levels as i said is what happened before and has been happening ever since $13k was reached and could not be broken.

ps. if you don't trade then why are you getting excited about this dip?

you mean after 2 months of sideways we will see 4-5 more days of the same thing?

According to this news https://cointelegraph.com/news/bitcoin-price-hovers-around-9-500-following-sudden-price-drop worldwide analysts come out giving numbers and statistics, but of course, they do it later of the facts, not before the facts, in this case OP made a very good prediction with a much higher success rate, and you say that you feel that such a movement will come, that is something respectable, because you rely on your intuition It is something like what Jesse Livermore had (Great and Famous Speculator of the 1800s), where in his books he recommends that there are times where intuition should be followed.

Of course this is something that differs in people, in my case I rely on his teachings and following Wyckoff's theory, and doing my personal analysis, observing the market at Days I get this:



Given my analysis if it falls from the range of 8,978 USD, I find it very difficult to return to the range of $ 6k or $ 7k, since there are many people defending their positions, we are in the beginning of the bullish trend, of course it is my way of seeing trading.

When do you think we'll break $20,000?

I think we have reached the bottom for now. 4-5 days of sideways action. Maybe recovers a few hundred but stays under 10K

NEXT PREDICTION: By September 5th...bitcoin will be between 8200-8600 range. I know it’s a big range. But that’s still a huge drop from here.

My feeling is that euphoria is over for now.  We will see 8k, 7k, 6, maybe 5k.  On our eventual way up to 60k

Again, I’ve been in this game since 2014 and I can SENSE the general mood out there. People are getting a bit scared. Good buying opportunities are coming soon.

will it drop further below $8000? what's your advise on this... buy now or wait then?
your prediction can't be more conservative than that basic TA
either it bounces back and testing the last resistance ~$10.5k-$11k
or it drops a bit more and testing the next support line

lol    of course it's always 50%, either you're right or wrong

If someone had to claim they did predicted it then they have to explain how and why it did occur just like how OP explain it. It seems that OP was just right this time then i guess it's time for another 48hours prediction if everything would follow as predicted.

How about the next 48hrs, do we feel that it will dump again? We can't still predict exactly what will happen and I could say that predicted it right today but I don't feel that you can make it in the next 48hrs.

With all this market flows, it sounds like that bullish seems to be impossible to show up, not in the bearish season also. If the market will still be like this until the year-end, it'll be fined for me.

Yeah, and it looks like more prediction like this will begin to appear claiming that there are right. The drop is obvious because of the market situation. If we go lower than $9k again then it wil continue for a short period of time.

The simpliest conclusion is often the most right when it comes to markets because consensus moves the price.    Its hard to argue with this one but Im not rich enough or clever enough to throw the basketball over my shoulder as I walk away and expect to score.     Many times before its reached this point or similar and the smart thing was to go long, Ive even thought as much but generally not had the guts to do so especially.    Could have made some bucks if I expected such a strategy to play out a few months back.
 Instead I went short and made some pennies today, big whoop     Going from the 50DMA would have worked better but still its not much of a move, main conclusion is sideways we move like a snake.




Lets be totally boring, weekly bars and 50 week MA.     Its yet done anything especially significant, if anything if it rises from here its bullish and probably worth even a leveraged long on the breakout from whats been some negative trend.   I hope I can keep that in mind

Well, to be honest, 10 experts (although I hate using this term when it comes to bitcoin) can't compete with 1 million amateurs making guesses.
I'm pretty sure if we held a contest like the one mic is running each day after a month there would be some 'amateurs' who would nail the end of the day price at least twice or three times. But I would put that more on luck than actual skillz.
No offence  , since I know you nailed the price once or twice (?) in those contests


Another 48h? 
You got close but the last step was still miles away.

Close enough for me. A 20% drop that quickly (48 hours) was unlikely anyway since we're not in a parabolic run-up anymore.

We broke down from a pretty big consolidation so chances are pretty high that we're going lower. Anything below $9K and I'd say this was an uncommonly good prediction.

In 48 hours...Bitcoin will be somewhere between 8000 and 11000.

I’m on a role...I want to keep my next prediction conservative.

Besides...50% of the time my predictions are right every time!