why a smaller block with weight of 5100 and age of 10.08 stakes first and another one (twice so big) with age of 11.9 and weight of 13500 struggle for 3 days to stake and........nothing?
the coins with 13500 weight have 2.6x more chances of staking than the coins with 5100 weight but luck still plays a factor
id like to think of it this way... you need to get a score of 25000
you roll a 10sided dice and the weight is the multiplier
the smaller block rolls a 5
5 * 5100 weight = 25,500
the bigger block rolls a 1
1 * 13500 weight = 13,500
the smaller block get a score > 25000 and finds a block
Exactly. This is where the lottery analogy helps explain it a bit. If there is a lottery with 10,000 tickets and I have 7,500 of those tickets, then I have 75% chance of winning that lottery. But since a lottery is random, someone that only has 1 ticket can still win.
So statistically you have the best chance to stake with a large weighted block, and 7/10 times this will stake before the other blocks, but like istvandv said, there is luck involved.