Topic: HyperBitcoinization Coming, Says Adam Back, Do you Agree? (Read 153 times)

Back in the old days, An average Bitcoin user did not know that the price would increase after the halving. So, a few users hold Bitcoin in the hope of making a profit after the halving. But look at today's community. Predictably, Bitcoin Price will increase after the halving. So, it could be different this time. Almost all holders are waiting for the next ATH and waiting for the opportunity to take a profit.

People will start making a profit even before the ATH, so reaching the next ATH wouldn't be easy. This time it may take longer time than usual time. I saw topics like people wanting to invest in Bitcoin by taking loans, selling wife's jewelry etc. This shows how desperate people are to profit after the halving event.

Not really, because one can hold 1 million bitcoin in 1 million bitcoin addresses so increase in the number of address can't be really considered as a sign of adoption happening from new people and I doubt that 1 million people have more than 1 BTC in their wallet, its still under control of few individuals and remaining is just as portions among all the small investors. But that is the real adoption cause we know its only 21 million bitcoin and there are 7 billion people all around the world so lesser the amount of bitcoin and more number of bitcoin address denotes the direct relativity towards actual adoption.

But the recent Bitcoin congestion and transaction fee surge is not caused by the demand in Bitcoin but rather caused by the NFT craze created by BRC20.  I also think that Bitcoin will be going in that direction but the example you have given is proposing the other way.


There should be, I am also anticipating that Bitcoin will increase in the coming months.  I suppose the hype of the Bitcoin halving will occur soon, the catalyst for bull market is on its way, so it isn't news that the price of Bitcoin will surge.


Most of the holders knows that Bitcoin has the history of breaking its ATH after the halving event is done.  So it is obvious that these holders wanted to take the best possible outcome of their investment and Bitcoin holding so they will continue to hodl until Bitcoin market started the series of record breaking ATH as the Bitcoin bull market peak.

Good to know that holders keep holding their Bitcoin. It's not because they just wanted to be the holder and hold Bitcoin. Of course, most are waiting for a good time to make a profit. Nobody is here to hold the coins forever. Let's say someone bought Bitcoin at 60K and still holding. Do you think he will still hold it forever? For sure, he will sell when the price reaches his target price, and they will wait for a correction and buy back again.

Everybody is waiting for a good time so they can make some profits. A company like Microstrategy is going to sell its holdings at some point. Most are trying to buy more because the next halving is very soon, and they might not be able to find BTC at 26K again before the halving.

Oh my buddy! You have explained it very well. That's absolutely the truth even centuries ago people give up on the idea of buying ton of gold and still they are doing their best with ounces of gold and they are more than happy in having that much. Same will be the case with Bitcoin when it reaches the levels where ordinary people might not be able to own it, but by owning Satoshi's they will feel that they own a chunk of Bitcoin!

a tonne of gold has been out of affordability of many for centuries. no one cries that they should have a tonne of gold or deserve to own a tonne of gold.

people just treat it the norm that they buy gold in ounces not tonnes

That's truly an amazing thing to hear but I think most of those addresses belong to the whales who have bought Bitcoin in its early days. Many of those whales prefer to keep their Bitcoin in separate wallets for the purpose of safety and for security of being untraced. If a whale puts this whole bitcoins in single address then there is chance that someone can penetrate it when it goes online. They also won't keep the Btc in one address because they want to hold it secretly to avoid taxes at the time of selling.
 
The HyperBitcoinization is currently a term and it will remain in that way for a long time. Although, I am also among the lovers of Bitcoin but I don't think that we can see that thing as a reality anytime soon. The governments are trying to create their own cryptocurrencies that should be purely the digital version of their own fiat currencies. Although, there is a possibility that Bitcoin might be used as a reserve for those fiat crypto-currencies, but still no body knows that yet.


I think that Bitcoin's price will be too high for a normal person to buy it. Only rich investors would be able to purchase it if its price crosses over $100k, but still poor people can still buy some Satoshi's and that's enough for them. I know that even this day there are thousands of people into crypto world who can't afford to own a whole BTC, so tomorrow there might be more people who desire to own a Bitcoin, but they wont be able to.

I believe that soon Bitcoin will enter the bull market and the day is not too far when that will happen. I think this bull run will bring a lot of investment in the cryptos and many people would love to own their share of coins in the sphere of cryptocurrencies. I'm very positive that Bitcoin will cross $100k in 2024's last quarter, and if it does then the next bull run might make it to reach highest peaks that we can even dream of. I think after halving things will be different form today. I'm eagerly waiting for that day.

this does not mean 1m people own 1btc each

it means whales are splitting their funds up from being a whale address of 10k coin on one address, to being 10k of addresses of 1btc each

yep one whale has MANY KEYS

EG alot of people think Satoshi has 1m btc in one stash.. when in actual fact he has thousands of addresses of 50btc

many people use "seeds" now, whereby they have thousands of addresses all funded with small amounts each

..
what you can also notice is that the count was only temporary. becasue the amount of addresses holding more then 1 BTC has died down again

whats seen is the whale holder of mass amounts have now dropped to small holdings per address.

also what you can now see is now there are many many millions of addresses holding under 1btc. because yep you guessed it the main whales(exchange custodians) have split their hot wallets into smaller amounts per address and many users of even smaller amounts have withdrawn. so temporarily it caused alot of temporary addresses showing lots of 10k btc+ becoming lots and lots of 1k addresses and lots and lots of <10btc amounts.. but this was just wallet shuffling of many addresses per wallet

and now its settled down showing less coins on exchanges

this is due to things like binance doing a temporary withdraw close while they mess with their wallets.

in very short version:
a significant of the addresses holding 1-10btc are exchange custodian hotwallets yet to sweep or withdraw balance
a significant of the addresses holding 1-10btc are whales not wanting to have more then $250k of value per address

meaning alot of those addresses are owned by the same individual. thus no where near 1m individuals

For someone who has been around for a long time and doesn't have a short memory, I can only say that this is another cheap PR for the man and the company he represents. Unfortunately, if someone thinks that we have 1 million people who own 1 BTC and is happy about it, then they are really living in a big delusion, because one person or one company can have 10 000 BTC located in 10 000 addresses, so this whole methodology makes sense as well as the fact that millions of BTC were lost because they did not move from the specified address for x years.

I can only agree that such data cannot help us to objectively see the true picture, no matter how much some try to convince us otherwise.

Although I can say I am bullish about that, but come on, it's just too much overimagination for me. Practically, there are other factors that can help the bitcoin price shoot so high that buying it will be very expensive, but I still don't see that happening any time soon. Even if Bitcoin has to hit $100k in the coming Bitcoin halving and bull market, it's not so much that people can't buy, and even if it's so, the bear market will come and the price will still go below $100k. When talking about the hyper-bitcoinization, what's the actual price we can expect? People think it will be very expensive. Is it $500k or $1 million for one bitcoin? If that's the case, then it's not just going to be a sudden thing that Bitcoin will shoot up to that high so soon; that will take a long time.

I have always been bullish and such analysis like this is certainly giving the positive vibes for everyone that thinks that there's nothing happening in the market lately. And that is because of the price of Bitcoin don't move a lot and instead of moving forward, we get some corrections.
It's real that there are more people that don't want to sell their Bitcoins and want to hold it instead. That is because everyone have learned already on how the market cycle goes, with this, everyone is anticipating a better value for bitcoin in the coming years and even for the upcoming bull run. It's known that many do like to hold even at least 1 BTC but it doesn't stop there and having the word of hyperbitcoinization, he or they can address it depending on what they see in the market. But I like it when he said that it's gonna be a luxury to obtain 1 BTC soon while many are saying that buying it now is expensive.

Maybe the definition of hyperbitcoinization is different, but if we define it as "increased adoption and high price" then yeah that is going to happen. There is a lot of reasons for it too. We have the current centralized financial system that is slowly falling apart with banks that keep going bankrupt and the fiat currencies that are being printed nonstop causing high inflation rates. It is bound to push people into thinking about alternatives like bitcoin.
Regardless of the current market situation the onchian analysis shows that the adoption is rapidly increasing.

Not exactly 1 million but close to it since there’s a lot of whales that splitting their holdings into multiple wallets for a better privacy also there’s the existence of Mixer wallets which obviously holds multiple Bitcoin on multiple addresses.

Confidence on Bitcoin is increasing by having multiple wallets that have 1BTC and above balance. It only show how people now use 1BTC as a goal amount for Bitcoin investment. But let’s see how these wallets will react in times when Bitcoin already recovered.

I wouldn't say this is hyperBitcoinization because this is make Bitcoin more centralized. The increasing of addresses holding more than 1 Bitcoin means it's controlled by whales. I'd like to see less than 1 Bitcoin spread more widely, this mean many people regardless it's low, middle or upper class are want to adopt Bitcoin.

This will make the Bitcoin price is more expensive and not affordable for low class to buy Bitcoin if it's keep continue.

Well I agree with getting to 1 BTC will very soon be unattainable for people. Except for those no-coiners with high incomes who get into Bitcoin soon, or for those who are already most of the way to 1 BTC, it's gonna be real hard for anyone to accumulate 1 BTC from now on. In a year the price will probably be double what it is now, and next bear market the price may bottom at double today's price.

So maybe there is 12 months left of <$55k-$60k price, and that's it. And after these next 12 months, maybe there is only another 18 months of under <$100k price after that (when you count time it'll take to from May 2024 until it goes through 100k during bull market, plus time it spends under 100k during the next bear market). So we're talking likely only ~2.5 years of total time from here on out that the price of 1 BTC is under $100k, and most of that period it's gonna be over $50k. At $50k - $100k it is already very hard for a middle class person in a rich country to accumulate 1 BTC over the course of years. At over $100k price it's gonna be near impossible. At $200k and up there will basically be no new whole coiners being added to the community outside of wealthy no-coiners who finally pick up some Bitcoin.

It's crazy to think about but there will probably never be more than 2 million whole-coiners at any point in history. There might one day be a billion people with 0.01 BTC and another billion or two people with less than that, but only a million or so people with 1 BTC.



Anyway, as to the hyperbitcoinization. Maybe one day, but I'm 40 and I don't expect to see it in my lifetime, or anywhere close to it. If it happens I think that is a far off future thing. Hyperbitcoinization means living on a bitcoin standard essentially. It means Bitcoin being the primary money. Maybe in a number of generations fiat currencies of today fail so badly and Bitcoin remains so strong that hyperbitcoinization happens as the only alternative to the failed system, but it ain't gonna be in the next few decades. I mean hell, it'll probably take at least a decade before its even easy to spend Bitcoin on a fairly regular basis and before most people think Bitcoin is something other than a pyramid scheme.

I like what Adam Back said, "Should the existing trend continue, BTC price growth would soon make buying it not only a luxury but something altogether unattainable". Because I think what he said one day will indeed come true. Because even with the many bankruptcies that have occurred in large banks in developed countries. I think this will drive faster and more bitcoin adoption. And yes I agree that nowadays it seems that people have started to realize that keeping bitcoins for a long period of time is the best.

So if more and more people choose to keep their bitcoins for the long term and have no intention of selling in the near future. then buying bitcoin one day will become something beyond luxury because it will indeed be increasingly difficult to obtain when people have started to choose to be Holders more.

And are you aware of the recession issue? and what makes many economists make statements from the results of their research that a recession can indeed occur. And a recession can occur due to people's awareness to save more and become higher. And the current economic crisis has actually had an impact on all of us thinking that we must start preparing from the beginning so that we can avoid a return from an economic crisis that may be even worse one day. So that people's awareness about investment and savings is currently increasing rapidly.

Now when awareness about the importance of investment and savings is increasing in everyone. and coupled with the many banks that went bankrupt, guess where they will go in the end to choose a place that they will make as investments and savings. My answer is Gold for savings and Bitcoin for Investment.

When this happens the $200k price for BTC is likely to be reached sooner than expected.

Which is nothing we didn't know in 2021, that was already said then and the price behaviour since then has been quite disappointing. It is clear that demand will tend to grow over time, and supply will tend to decrease, so the price of bitcoin can only go up, but I do not trust that it will do so very quickly, especially given how the price has evolved this cycle.

When the market cap is large, it is more difficult to raise the price and we will not see the returns of the first couple of cycles again.

Not entirely. Assuming that exchanges don't have wallets with a balance of <1 BTC, then if this number starts declining then it more or less means that it's going to exchanges, or otherwise alternatively people are breaking up >1 BTC wallet quantities to domination >1 BTC. If you simply want to know about the amount of coins on exchanges though, then CoinGlass is a good place to start.

As someone else pointed out, in the same way it's quite common Bitcoiners to break up 1,000 or 100 BTC into smaller amounts, it's also possible that users with say 10/100 Bitcoin are breaking them up into dominations of >1. As it's generally recommended to split funds across different accounts, even if ultimately the private keys from the same seed phrase.

this makes me happy.

this means about 1 million people own their own key. we can track it if their Bitcoin is put in exchange, right?

~ Not your key, not your BTC ~

The growth of address number means about growth of addresses and somewhat means about holders in person.

With the price of Bitcoin becomes higher and higher, people will be more careful to store their coins. If I have 100 bitcoin in 2013 or 2014, I did not mind to store those coins in only one wallet. Now and in future, I am sure that it's not only me but also others, will diversify their 100 bitcoins to different wallets.

It is risk diversification that will become more popular when people realize better about risk and indirectly affected by higher price of Bitcoin.