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Topic: Hypothetically, if a large enough gold deposit was found, could it cause economi (Read 2706 times)

sr. member
Activity: 448
Merit: 250
It's Money 2.0| It’s gold for nerds | It's Bitcoin
If such a deposit was found, companies with vested interests in the price of gold remaining high would keep the news hush hush and hoard what was found, much like what is happening with diamonds today.

In today's 24 hour news cycle it would be very difficult to keep this kind of information private, especially from people who make a living off of trading gold.

The price would not be affected unless the entity mining the gold were to sell it in the open market in mass.

If the company/entity that mines the gold were to hold it as an investment then the price would not be effected, as neither supply nor demand would have changed.
legendary
Activity: 1260
Merit: 1029
In California gold rush, the gold price did not crash hard, instead, the whole west coast were built. It clearly reflected that in people's consensus, gold is money, more gold = more money, more money = richer

But economists say that more money will cause inflation, because fiat money's value purely comes from it being used to trade, it has no other use, more fiat money = more spending = inflation, but more gold will not cause more spending, since it holds value long term wise, the extra gold will just be hoarded



Gold rush is nowhere near to what OP described (gold as much as dirt). That would destroy price of gold to price of dirt (we use dirt too you know...for growing food etc.)
legendary
Activity: 1988
Merit: 1012
Beyond Imagination
In California gold rush, the gold price did not crash hard, instead, the whole west coast were built. It clearly reflected that in people's consensus, gold is money, more gold = more money, more money = richer

But economists say that more money will cause inflation, because fiat money's value purely comes from it being used to trade, it has no other use, more fiat money = more spending = inflation, but more gold will not cause more spending, since it holds value long term wise, the extra gold will just be hoarded

legendary
Activity: 1260
Merit: 1029
Alright, let's say that I find a gold mine large enough that if mined and refined, all the gold in it were enough to make gold about as rare as dirt.
First, what effect would this have on the economy? I heard somewhere that the wealth of nations is based on how much gold each country has.
Second, what if I could mine and sell it, like, really super fast without anyone knowing? Could I hypothetically become rich before anyone realized what was happening?


No world economy is not tied to gold. As far as second part of your question goes, it's not question of "speed", it's question of "spread". If you could spread sales far enough from each other so you do not oversaturate markets too fast, than yes, you would walk away with thitload of fiat. But as you say, "as common as dirt", i'd say that saturation would happen really quickly. But still, you would get shitload of money.
hero member
Activity: 1666
Merit: 513
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Yes and No

Depends how big the deposit, you do notice fluctuations in Gold prices (if you day trade) when SIGNIFICANT deposits are found because new ones of rather small size are found daily.

Currently, the amount of Gold mined in the history of mankind could fill 1/3 of the Washington Monument.  If a deposit that could fill the rest was found then DEFINITELY there would be a significant price drop.  If the price at the time of the find is $1,250 USD per ounce, 2/3 of that is $425 per ounce because the world supply tripled overnight.

However, the chances of such a deposit found on earth now are slim to none.  In the past decade there has been about 3 significant deposits found.

Price of Gold = 1 Ounce = 1 Paycheck

The faster you extract it, the more paychecks you get; just like Bitcoin mining.  Bitcoin Mining, very much like Gold mining is a number's game; but remains a game none the less Wink
sr. member
Activity: 359
Merit: 250
If such a deposit was found, companies with vested interests in the price of gold remaining high would keep the news hush hush and hoard what was found, much like what is happening with diamonds today.
sr. member
Activity: 266
Merit: 250
Gold is inflationary. Technology will always find new ways to extract more and more gold from the earth. Eventually they will figure out how to mass produce it through industrial processes. In the short term it can be a hedge of sorts but eventually the price will keep falling.

The price is also related to quantity of fiat.

Quantity of fiat vs quantity of gold.

Given that the global debt situation requires a lot of new fiat to be issued to cover old debts => it's unlikely gold production will hit the percentage increases of new fiat production.

Gold is generally considered to be a hedge against inflation.

It is... it inflates at a rate of ~1-1.5% in itself (2.500 tons added annually to 180.000 tons above ground quantity). The global monetary supply is inflating faster, so the ratio between fiat money and quantities of gold is going in favor of gold.

There are also other uses of gold other then as a hedge against inflation. Gold is often used in semiconductors among other thins. This will put somewhat of a floor on the price of gold in terms of CPI as companies can produce things with gold more cheaply if the price of gold falls, creating demand for gold.

If we had ample quantities, there would be no reason having copper-nickel coins. It'd all be gold and silver. So even more demand.

For silver in particular, it would also mean wires are made out of silver, instead of copper. Silver is a better conductor. Especially in electric motors, silver wire coils produce more power than copper coils for the same electricity produced.

Different metals have different kinds of uses and properties. Silver has a lower value (by measure of weight) and is generally is used for things that cost less. If the price of gold were to decrease sufficiently (because of either lower demand or higher supply) then things that are normally use silver could instead use gold.
STT
legendary
Activity: 4088
Merit: 1452
Quote
Gold is inflationary. Technology will always find new ways to extract more and more gold from the earth. Eventually they will figure out how to mass produce it through industrial processes


Technology finds ways to do alot of things faster which is a good thing.    I think the thing you are forgetting there is the gigantic population increase, so there is tons more gold but even more then that is the larger amount of people

So per capita over the world, gold is not inflationary.    It doesnt make much sense to say that, in ancient Egypt the price of a field of wheat was roughly the same as now; if you measure it as exchanged for gold.
That should be impossible it seems, the world is so different and there was certainly far less people plus they made the wheat by seeding with hand tools?  



The answer to the OP is simple, no its not having that radical an effect.    How many people here spend gold coins.      We have already debased any link to gold, right now its meaningless.  The centre of the world economy right now is Washington politics, its not some metal dynamic.
   Technology here is trying to take some power back via innovation and cryptography, convenience but look at bitcoin market cap and its nothing.  BTC is barely even a small NYSE stock size, its a fly on the windscreen of a juggernaut.   Gold is not massive either afaik, oil is big yes and the biggest market is government debt
full member
Activity: 238
Merit: 100
Stand on the shoulders of giants
instead gold, what about petrol ... what do you thing OPEC would do ?
legendary
Activity: 2940
Merit: 1865
...

My first guess is that there are NO big and easy-to-mine gold mines to be found.

Second, most gold miners are losing money right now...

Third, there is HUGE RESISTANCE among locals re new & big Au mines (ref: Conga in Peru and Pebble in Alaska).

***

Buy and hold physical gold in your own possession without worries.  Um, like BTC!


The race is on!  Which gets to $55,000 first (Au (via FOFOA), or BTC from its fans)?
legendary
Activity: 1708
Merit: 1049
Gold is inflationary. Technology will always find new ways to extract more and more gold from the earth. Eventually they will figure out how to mass produce it through industrial processes. In the short term it can be a hedge of sorts but eventually the price will keep falling.

The price is also related to quantity of fiat.

Quantity of fiat vs quantity of gold.

Given that the global debt situation requires a lot of new fiat to be issued to cover old debts => it's unlikely gold production will hit the percentage increases of new fiat production.

Gold is generally considered to be a hedge against inflation.

It is... it inflates at a rate of ~1-1.5% in itself (2.500 tons added annually to 180.000 tons above ground quantity). The global monetary supply is inflating faster, so the ratio between fiat money and quantities of gold is going in favor of gold.

There are also other uses of gold other then as a hedge against inflation. Gold is often used in semiconductors among other thins. This will put somewhat of a floor on the price of gold in terms of CPI as companies can produce things with gold more cheaply if the price of gold falls, creating demand for gold.

If we had ample quantities, there would be no reason having copper-nickel coins. It'd all be gold and silver. So even more demand.

For silver in particular, it would also mean wires are made out of silver, instead of copper. Silver is a better conductor. Especially in electric motors, silver wire coils produce more power than copper coils for the same electricity produced.
sr. member
Activity: 266
Merit: 250
Gold is inflationary. Technology will always find new ways to extract more and more gold from the earth. Eventually they will figure out how to mass produce it through industrial processes. In the short term it can be a hedge of sorts but eventually the price will keep falling.

The price is also related to quantity of fiat.

Quantity of fiat vs quantity of gold.

Given that the global debt situation requires a lot of new fiat to be issued to cover old debts => it's unlikely gold production will hit the percentage increases of new fiat production.

Gold is generally considered to be a hedge against inflation.

It is... it inflates at a rate of ~1-1.5% in itself (2.500 tons added annually to 180.000 tons above ground quantity). The global monetary supply is inflating faster, so the ratio between fiat money and quantities of gold is going in favor of gold.

There are also other uses of gold other then as a hedge against inflation. Gold is often used in semiconductors among other thins. This will put somewhat of a floor on the price of gold in terms of CPI as companies can produce things with gold more cheaply if the price of gold falls, creating demand for gold.
legendary
Activity: 1708
Merit: 1049
Gold is inflationary. Technology will always find new ways to extract more and more gold from the earth. Eventually they will figure out how to mass produce it through industrial processes. In the short term it can be a hedge of sorts but eventually the price will keep falling.

The price is also related to quantity of fiat.

Quantity of fiat vs quantity of gold.

Given that the global debt situation requires a lot of new fiat to be issued to cover old debts => it's unlikely gold production will hit the percentage increases of new fiat production.

Gold is generally considered to be a hedge against inflation.

It is... it inflates at a rate of ~1-1.5% in itself (2.500 tons added annually to 180.000 tons above ground quantity). The global monetary supply is inflating faster, so the ratio between fiat money and quantities of gold is going in favor of gold.
sr. member
Activity: 266
Merit: 250
Gold is inflationary. Technology will always find new ways to extract more and more gold from the earth. Eventually they will figure out how to mass produce it through industrial processes. In the short term it can be a hedge of sorts but eventually the price will keep falling.

The price is also related to quantity of fiat.

Quantity of fiat vs quantity of gold.

Given that the global debt situation requires a lot of new fiat to be issued to cover old debts => it's unlikely gold production will hit the percentage increases of new fiat production.

Gold is generally considered to be a hedge against inflation.
legendary
Activity: 1708
Merit: 1049
Gold is inflationary. Technology will always find new ways to extract more and more gold from the earth. Eventually they will figure out how to mass produce it through industrial processes. In the short term it can be a hedge of sorts but eventually the price will keep falling.

The price is also related to quantity of fiat.

Quantity of fiat vs quantity of gold.

Given that the global debt situation requires a lot of new fiat to be issued to cover old debts => it's unlikely gold production will hit the percentage increases of new fiat production.
sr. member
Activity: 406
Merit: 250
Well perhaps maybe the person that found this would be the richest man alive. Finding this I don't think would decrease the price of everything more so just have him money.

If you find it just keep it a secret. You can tell me of course.  Grin
legendary
Activity: 1522
Merit: 1000
www.bitkong.com
Well perhaps maybe the person that found this would be the richest man alive. Finding this I don't think would decrease the price of everything more so just have him money.
sr. member
Activity: 406
Merit: 250
Gold is inflationary. Technology will always find new ways to extract more and more gold from the earth. Eventually they will figure out how to mass produce it through industrial processes. In the short term it can be a hedge of sorts but eventually the price will keep falling.
sr. member
Activity: 266
Merit: 250
Alright, let's say that I find a gold mine large enough that if mined and refined, all the gold in it were enough to make gold about as rare as dirt.
First, what effect would this have on the economy? I heard somewhere that the wealth of nations is based on how much gold each country has.
Second, what if I could mine and sell it, like, really super fast without anyone knowing? Could I hypothetically become rich before anyone realized what was happening?


No.

Gold miners would still need to invest in equipment, manpower and other capital in order to extract the gold from the mine. This is similar to how BTC miners still need to invest in electricity when they receive a high powered (when compared to other mining machines) miners. 
sr. member
Activity: 453
Merit: 254
It depend on how much cost mine it and how much gold there is.
Without these numbers it is impossible to give a sensible answer.

Supposing the price to mine it would be in the 100$/once and there is enough gold to increase the amount globally mined 10x per one year, it would crash the price (if all would be released in a continuous stream).
But, if it is finite (as it should be) miners would keep the gold and sell enough on the market to finance their operation.
Then, they would slowly sell it for years buying undervalued assets.

There is, also, the problem with refineries: there are not enough refineries to smelt the ore and refine it at an industrial financial level if you have too much ore production.

The lower value of gold would increase the uses as an industrial good.
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