I am not lucky in trading - what am I doing wrong? - page 11.

Panslav

newbie

Activity: 2

Merit: 0

Many thanks for so many replies.
But still I do not understand how someone can successfully predict btc movement with use of TA. Just look at the situation from 11 of november. In 6 hours price dropped from 9050 to 8600. What showed in the beginning fall of price? RSI not overbought, OBV in line with price... even after fall to 8940 usd rsi showed oversold. And of course we are looking to past, so we know how the situation finished, but in the moment of price fall, how do you know if to sell ( price will keep falling ) or buy ( because it is the bottom) Huh

?
I would really like to understand this.

https://i.imgur.com/kl4rKyQ.jpg

Soots

sr. member

Activity: 1050

Merit: 251

Quote from: Getmon on November 28, 2019, 05:41:51 AM

It is because trading is not about luck, or perhaps mostly not about luck. 99% of trading is about how good you are in using your tools, analysis, and fundamentals. But even if you are good enough, it is still not a guarantee that you will end up right all the time. Most of the time, the market is really beyond the prediction of traders. You can always predict the prices of Bitcoin but your prediction will remain as a guess.

You can't merge luck with reality on trading, because we're doing that for money and this isn't to be associated with gambling. When we say its a lucky profit, then it's somehow the same with betting. Here in trading, it's our skills that matter oftentimes so you should be responsible to make your future great in trading.
If you think it's not a lucky decision, make it a perfect one because it isn't just luck but a sustainable wealth if given a by chance.

clickerz

hero member

Activity: 1414

Merit: 505

Backed.Finance

Quote from: maxreish on November 27, 2019, 11:30:58 PM

Have you tried using other indicators like RSI, Stochaistic RSI, Bollinger Bands other than volumes? Seems that you are misreading your indicator. If you are not sure when to buy or to sell your btc, you can confirm it to the other indicators like I have mentioned above.

On the other hand, I can see you are not that confident to yourself because you always had a bad entry and exit point. Determined your bad entries, it is not necessary to just rely on your own guts or your own prediction. That is why we need technical analysis for basis and to spot where we gonna sell or buy at the right time.

Yes, @OP should learn this indicator. It is better to learn more indicators so that when In doubt you can verify another indicator. Also, be aware that trading has losses too, not all trades are gainful. But, by learning some tools, you can minimize your losses. Study more resources and practice.

Getmon

sr. member

Activity: 1400

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It is because trading is not about luck, or perhaps mostly not about luck. 99% of trading is about how good you are in using your tools, analysis, and fundamentals. But even if you are good enough, it is still not a guarantee that you will end up right all the time. Most of the time, the market is really beyond the prediction of traders. You can always predict the prices of Bitcoin but your prediction will remain as a guess.

DeathProxy

sr. member

Activity: 756

Merit: 251

World's First Crowd Owned Cryptocurrency Exchange

I guess you need to change your approach towards trading. This is my approach that have been working for me maybe you can read and learn from i so you can make your own adjustment .

- dont go in with a FOMO mindset despite project having a super gold status
- dont buy in ico wait to launch and buy at lowa after investors dump
- Buy project with usecase and workable product
- crypto is at least 5 years in adoption so take profit at interval and never love a coin.
- crypto always gives time to buy at low so never go into fomo and buy on high wait for a good entry point

Harriti

sr. member

Activity: 756

Merit: 256

HEX: Longer pays better

Quote from: Panslav on November 27, 2019, 01:19:15 PM

Hello all,

need advise, if any exist

I am trading btc few years - but it seems I havent learnt anything. My plan was to use bitcoin volatility to earn some extra btc, but it seems I am not able to do this.
I am selling/buying always in wrong time. Using volume as only indicator, as others do not make sense for me.

For example I see a series of red candles with increased selling volume, price crossing support line (like today crossing 7040, 7000, 6900 USD) so I sold 0.8btc in expectation price fall to 6500 usd as few days ago.
But 1.5 hour later price changed and went up and my prediction was again wrong. And the same is during increase of price. If the price hits e.g. 10300 usd and starts falling I do not sell, because I am not sure when it will turn again. And then I usually miss fall in price from 10300 to 7300 which is finally 3000 usd, what you can earn on 1 sold btc at correct time.

Am I doing something completly wrong? Or it is not possible to predict the movement of btc?

thanks
P.

You are not wrong, you are doing right. because everyone has their own strategy and unfortunately your strategy is not working right now. You know, the crypto market is full of manipulators and it can cause the price of a coin to rise more than 30% within a few hours. so if you feel too risky, you should not trade immediately. Keep researching the market and come up with a new strategy, maybe you will be more successful.

piebeyb

legendary

Activity: 2296

Merit: 1038

Leading Crypto Sports Betting & Casino Platform

Quote from: Panslav on November 27, 2019, 01:19:15 PM

Am I doing something completly wrong? Or it is not possible to predict the movement of btc?

there is nothing wrong with what you have done so far, you have been trading for a few years, you should have learned a lot like me, before I was like you experimenting in trading and it took me about 3 years to understand the market from looking at other trading volumes, bitcoin is always predictable you need to learn it a little bit, I give advice focus on that trading does not always prioritize profits always prioritizes learning

Landak

hero member

Activity: 1386

Merit: 503

Your mistakes may be due to the emergence of a fear of excessive losses and fear of missing out on a moment (fomo), if you can do an analysis of the candlestick and look for updated news I am sure such mistakes will not be repeated again. And another problem is maybe you put all your money to be used as trading capital, so when there is an increase and decrease in prices like yesterday you started to panic. save fiat and save crypto, this is a good way too. when trading, try to be patient and don't panic.

Scotslass

jr. member

Activity: 37

Merit: 1

Quote from: topbitcoin on November 28, 2019, 01:45:11 AM

Maybe not too confident with what we speculate make you more careful when pick an action. Especially if you said you only use Volume as indicator. Actually i see only from what i learn, not too hury to sell your bitcoin if you see bear trap. I mean in bear market, it is better to take a rest and start do trading when you see bull run come.

I'd say your tactic can work only if you are long-term player.
For short traders there is no way to blindly buy/sell and still be in profit.
As I said you can choose simple tactics for long trading - for instance you buy 1 btc on $6800 and write down on paper that you'll sell if: 1. btc gets lower than $6600 2. btc gets higher than $7100.
Basic stuff, I know.

Negotiation

sr. member

Activity: 1148

Merit: 268

Many people already suggest you i just adding something you learned about cryptocurrency trading minimum 2-3year more than you start trade in ream market place not follow only indicator follow must technical analysis with news trade not shortcut man it's very hard.

crossabdd

legendary

Activity: 1316

Merit: 1145

trading is not only about trading volume. there are other indicators, such as patterns, EMA, RSI, etc. about reading charts. and also fundamental analysis (looking for information and news about bitcoin. Some time ago I made a chart pattern for my friend who asked, when prices fell at $ 6700 then went up to $ 7100, after that I sent pictures and told me that the increase would reach $ 7500. And today this is proven by a pattern that I drew, so do an analysis at least about a pattern.

topbitcoin

hero member

Activity: 1694

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Leading Crypto Sports Betting & Casino Platform

Maybe not too confident with what we speculate make you more careful when pick an action. Especially if you said you only use Volume as indicator. Actually i see only from what i learn, not too hury to sell your bitcoin if you see bear trap. I mean in bear market, it is better to take a rest and start do trading when you see bull run come.

KnightElite

sr. member

Activity: 924

Merit: 275

For me I do not consider luck in trading. I'm using technical analysis for me to forecast the price. You keep losing your money in trading because you are just basing your decision in pure luck. You need to learn the 3 analysis which is fundamentals, technicals and also sentiment analysis.

alisonwonder

sr. member

Activity: 882

Merit: 251

Quote from: Mia44 on November 27, 2019, 10:39:22 PM

Quote from: Panslav on November 27, 2019, 01:19:15 PM

Am I doing something completly wrong? Or it is not possible to predict the movement of btc?

No one can fully predict the price behavior of any asset. I think that instead of focusing on predicting the price of bitcoin (something you can't do exactly) focus on building your own trading method.

that's what happens to me, I'm always wrong when buying and selling, when I buy the prices is dump, but when I sell the prices is pump, this makes me a little weird. what a building trading method?

maxreish

sr. member

Activity: 1330

Merit: 326

Have you tried using other indicators like RSI, Stochaistic RSI, Bollinger Bands other than volumes? Seems that you are misreading your indicator. If you are not sure when to buy or to sell your btc, you can confirm it to the other indicators like I have mentioned above.

On the other hand, I can see you are not that confident to yourself because you always had a bad entry and exit point. Determined your bad entries, it is not necessary to just rely on your own guts or your own prediction. That is why we need technical analysis for basis and to spot where we gonna sell or buy at the right time.

Mia44

full member

Activity: 412

Merit: 101

Quote from: Panslav on November 27, 2019, 01:19:15 PM

Am I doing something completly wrong? Or it is not possible to predict the movement of btc?

No one can fully predict the price behavior of any asset. I think that instead of focusing on predicting the price of bitcoin (something you can't do exactly) focus on building your own trading method.

BigBoy89

legendary

Activity: 1512

Merit: 1011

Well, not all people could be successful traders. I'm the live example

You could try, try harder. Reading more, playing with demo accounts, etc - to boost your confidence and error rates. My favorite book is old, but gold - Trading for a Living (Alexander Elder). Then, if it still not working for you, starts looking for other options like investing and lending.

nydiacaskey01

legendary

Activity: 1834

Merit: 1036

It looks like its not about luck, its about patience and you have to educate yourself in reading charts and graphs. You cant rely only on volume. RSi will tell you if the coin is overbought or oversold, expect changes if either of that reaches its limit. Learn to use Bollinger Bands, it will help you decide if the trend will continue. And patience, learn to have a lot of patience, if price drops and its not what you expect, just hold and dont panic.

1Referee

legendary

Activity: 2170

Merit: 1427

Quote from: leowonderful on November 27, 2019, 02:30:33 PM

Fakeouts sometimes through what seems like strong support are also somewhat common with Bitcoin, even when it seems like volume's accompanying a strong break through a level.

I always wait for one or a series of candles to close before I take on a trade during low volume breakouts. It yields less percentage gains, but at least you reduce the odds of being suckered into a trade you will very likely regret.

The good thing about this market being so active is that you will always have another opportunity to take on a trade at some other levels, as so, you do not have to force yourself to take on trades every single time. I see it happen all too often that people just take on trades for the sake of trading, but that's a quick route to empty your balance. A good trader knows when to skip a trade.

Jating

hero member

Activity: 2842

Merit: 772

Obviously something is wrong with your personal indicators so I would suggest you better try a different method. I wouldn't say that you are not lucky, everyone here started their bitcoin trading journey losing money. But then they adjust plus the experienced they gain make them a better trader.

If I'm in your shoes so better hardened your TA, someone already pointed out a good thread to start with, so I advise you to go back and read that thread and equip yourself with knowledge. So best of luck to you.

Topic: I am not lucky in trading - what am I doing wrong? - page 11. (Read 2112 times)