Topic: I am predicting a spike above $3 - page 6. (Read 10622 times)

OK, I'll give a real answer.  I think Bitcoin is an interesting concept, and I want to see how it plays out. I also strongly dislike scams.

If someone could come up with something good enough to replace PayPal or debit cards, that would be a win. Bitcoin, as currently designed, isn't it.

Bitcoin, the software, provides a means for unidirectional, irrevocable money transfer between anonymous parties. This is the scammer's dream. There's almost no risk of the mark coming back with cops or a baseball bat. With no revocation mechanism, no dispute resolution mechanism, no reputation mechanism, and  no enforcement mechanism, the Bitcoin world has been able to replicate, in only a few months, almost every classic financial scam of the 19th century, from John Law's bank to tulipomania to the South Sea Bubble.  That's the biggest problem with Bitcoin on the currency side.

It's worth watching Bitcoin to see how not to do it. Technically, I think the revocation problem could be fixed.  I've suggested using a two-phased commit, where a money transfer takes place with an "authorize" and a "capture" phase. I've described that elsewhere. This thing needs something so that scammers can't scam without consequences. 

The speculation market is a straight pump and dump.  That's why I'm down on the "pumpers".  This is a zero sum game. Bitcoin generates no revenue. Frantic efforts to recruit more investors to pay off the old ones make it a pyramid scheme.  I'm thus suspicious of the "BUY BUY BUY crowd".

Now I'm waiting to see how the endgame plays out.

is Bitcoin dead yet?  oh yeah; still functioning.  yes i believe in Bitcoin.  when it goes to zero or when i sell, then i will have lost.  i've always said i'm giving it 10 yrs.

Nagle, genuine question which I believe others have, but I'll frame it respectably:

Are you 100% bear, ie the bitcoin project will fall to pennies and will never regain stature, or are you just suggesting that for the mid-term?

If it's the former option, why do you continue to spend your time posting?  Your tone doesn't ring of altruistic intent, so what else can it be attributed to?

A futures market requires counterparties you can find and trust, or at least apply pressure upon, when it's time for them to pay up. The Bitcoin community doesn't have such institutions.

Have you seen http://www.spaculator.com/ ?

You mean like a currency futures market? That'd be nice. It would actually help stabilize bitcoin prices.

Actually, I've received several private messages recently thanking me for keeping them from making a big financial mistake.

Now let's have a look at "cypherdoc"'s track record:

• September 3, 2011: "while the falloff has been dramatic, it appears to be stabilizing around this 8-10 range.  i keep accumulating on the way down.  just give it time.  they can't stop it."
• August 4, 2011: "Re: $10,000 Bet that Bitcoins will outperform Gold, Silver by 100X !!! --- i happen to agree and i've staked my money on it!!!!"
• July 9, 2011: "i will also bet any or all of you btc bears/trolls in this thread 100 BTC each to be held in escrow that the USD price of 1 BTC will exceed $20 in one year."

If he's telling the truth, he's lost a lot of money in Bitcoin. Anybody fool enough to listen to him did, too.

what's the difference?

We need a Bitcoin betting website where speculators can actually bet on prices and link their bets.

It is not really a prediction, more of a guess work. 

Looks like it's gradually increasing, but I'd hardly call that a "spike".  Sucks too, I was hoping to pick some up for $1.5-1.6X.

Ok, now you can start calling me wrong, but at least it was kind of close. I'll have to remember to keep my predictions more vague in the future.

http://bitcoinstatus.rowit.co.uk/

Looks normal at first glance but we can actually expect another big drop in price within the next 24 hours if my theory is correct.

I say we will be <$2 by this time tomorrow, feel free to quote me on that.

Yes but you only ever predict ralliies in the near-term, sometimes with amusing inaccuracy.  So you predictions are not very informative.

we also predicted this move in our subscriber service and issued a short term alert about this opportunity, and confirmed this rally potential in our weekly newsletter. the pattern was clear

Thanks for the explanation,Dan.

no one's listening to you.

I played a little game called spot the pattern. Add to that the fact that things seem to always jump or drop near the start of the weekend and I felt good that it would move by Friday. I also lost a bunch when the bottom dropped out so I kind of understand how people are skittish right now. They want to buy back in, but need a bit of time to see that the big fall is over and things will be a little more predictable.

strange...

Buy 10000 BTC for 28448.97 USD

Can't fill complete order!
Sell 9007.01 BTC for 22337.85 USD

Yeah, Dan.  How'd you do it.  Even if we don't reach $3, that was a remarkably specific and accurate prediction.