Topic: I believe theses quotes should now kill BS&T. - page 2. (Read 7998 times)

I cut that part of your post because I didn’t see you making any logical points in it…just some vague speculation that pirate must have lost money because the price of bitcoins rose and because we didn’t hear anything about losses either pirate or his investors are lying? How can you possibly know pirate was in USD at the time when the market moved up? And even if he was, how can you possibly know he doesn’t have sufficient profits saved up from last month to cover it? You can’t know, and that’s why I’ll ask you again:

Some of us also know that it is possible to bet on red 8 times in a row and win every time, while "reinvesting" all the wins.
This does not mean that this strategy has any decent risk/reward expectation.

I also noticed it, again now. We've had the selective derailing before, it has not worked in the past, but they do it again and again and again; just burying the main arguments with repetitions or focusing on the fuzziest part of the topic.

It may or may not be unintentional, but it's annoying. Thanks for keeping it up and consequently pointing out the buried stuff, hazek.

I already did, I can't help you if you cut that part of my post.

No they don’t. Please point out to me where in the above list of facts you see reference to any wrongdoing, scamming, stealing, or any kind of unethical conduct whatsoever. You can’t point to that, because there hasn’t been any.

Yes, you repeated yourself very nicely. However as I already pointed out, you have defamed someone’s reputation and business, on the basis of what exactly? A forum post which allegedly proves you know more about trading then he does? When you accuse someone of scamming, it is a serious allegation where the onus is on you to provide the evidence backing it up. If you cannot do so, you should not be making the statements in the first place. Sure nobody is going to sue you, but it’s ethically and morally bankrupt of you to act this way.


If it’s so easy for you to cooperate with all your friends from the speculation forum, then why haven’t you done so? I’ll tell you why, because there’s a lot of risk in it. The speculation forum is full of sharks, with people often trying to trick others into doing the exact opposite of what they should be doing. If only there was a way to cooperate with other traders without the risk of them screwing you… Oh wait, there is. And pirate already thought of it.

One other HUGE HUGE problem with pirate's story:

Would it not be more accurate to say that it is very likely a ponzi i.e. with probability of that way higher than 50%?

Because there is no any evidence of any value producing economic activity, only evidence of taking deposits and paying "dividends".

It has ALL of properties of ponzi except the default (just yet).

I cannot agree more.

In other words you are perfectly content with people losing their hard earned money if it turns out you did in fact "invest" and defended "investing" in a ponzi scam.

Interesting.

https://bitcointalksearch.org/topic/z-91653 shows that Pirate is holding at least 32353 BTC in a wallet controlled by him and that number is possibly much higher if things like other wallets and offline storage are counted in. If Pirate's business is legit, why in the hell is he holding 32k+ BTC over which he pays 7% weekly?! Shouldn't he be using those BTC for his mysterious business or at least force withdrawals if he can't use that much BTC right now?

Yeah they do. Please explain to me how is he able to "successfully" do what he hints at that he is doing..


.. even after the recent significant BTCUSD exchange rate increase! Why I'm asking you this? Well this is precisely the event he claims he is using other people's money rather than his own as a hedge against losses ergo his "investors" should have lost money since BTCUSD went up about 30% in the last 30 days and even spiked almost 20% in just a span of 4 days.

So either his clients lost money with their "investments" in the last 30 days but they are keeping quiet or lying about it and he is legit, or they didn't in which case it's him who is either lying that he is using their money as a hedge where if he is legit he himself took the loss or he is lying and isn't doing what he hints at that he is doing.

Point is someone is lying, now you tell me who is lying about what.

I can actually conclusively prove arbitrage and daytrading impossible. I can rule out options because they must have negative profitability!

Order book trading and Arbitrage for example: volume is not just too small. Combined with spreads within the week, it keeps him below interest paid, probably rendering everything but private loans lossy trades because of locking up funds, and if not, they have too little fund requirement for making borrowing the money profitable.

Check volume and arbitrage: He's fucked even if he participates in every single trade on Gox, fucked by far! 200k weekly, roughly 2% spread, this locks up enormous resources to get the spiking trades.

Again! This isn't some faint evidence. The guy is lying, he's listing businesses that just can't work profitably with his footprint. We all know he holds at least high five-digits on paper, the market just doesn't cut it for this, and one coin can't do two things at once just like that!

You need outright absurd assumptions like him perfectly predicting everything and being in every trade and it still gets hard! Are you guys calling Pirateat40 a God?

Bitcoin Consultancy is not now, nor have they ever been, involved with GLBSE.

Yep, I have formulated the same thoughts: https://bitcointalksearch.org/topic/btcst-why-many-people-here-are-massive-scammers-and-suckers-91552

Okay, let's just assume that the business Pirate is running is not a ponzi.
I hope we can all agree that nobody can prove it isn't a ponzi.
I also hope that we can all agree on the fact that it could possibly be a ponzi, because it has a lot of its properties.

So under the assumption that it _isn't_ a ponzi, isn't it still a very bad thing people are defending it? What's to stop people from defending a real ponzi once it comes along, if people are defending Pirate's operation with ponzi-like properties without any real evidence to debunk the ponzi claims? In my opinion this is far worse than Pirate's operation possibly being a ponzi. People are defending a possible Ponzi Scheme, without any evidence to prove that it isn't one!


Disclaimer: I have a trivial amount of BTC invested with Pirate, because I honestly don't know what to believe.

coin_toss: I get now that I can't show it without a trader that sounds trustworthy. But I said that from the start! Get someone who knows what he's talking about.

• Arbitrage has insufficient volume as explained above, in addition to it being clear from his comments he doesn't have the skill.
• Local transactions should cause price fluctuations as explained above, which I don't see. Pirateat should have enough Gox trading experience from arbitraging the dark trades alone to never make the mistake in the OP.
• Local transactions on this volume should leave a footprint somewhere. Where the hell are they, who is borrowing at such unethical rates and who says they're not just an excuse for a default?

I have just posted two of these with little change! Do pretty much copy-pasted arguments I just refuted without changing them! Flooding tactics on my threads will get you blacklisted and put to question after the default.


On the trading money: the Gox order book is not that big, and gathering traders to cooperate on the speculation forum is possible. the manipulation can only be of the visible size in the order book, remember? What did we see, 40k walls? Yea, I don't have that, but together with all the traders I know? Take a guess.

I'm not saying it is especially bad you share a common false belief, but in this case you'll have to drop it. Manipulation is not an infinite money source. It works at times, but only so long, and spreads vanish the longer it does. I actually eat manipulators in my trading (I do volatility dampening at times), so would I see it, I'd be getting the funds in the end.

Sadly, I don't get a super huge amount of manipulation to prey on, and competition is rather stiff.

Allow me to remind you of what pirate says he does with this money: local transactions, market arbitrage, and private loans to network members. Last time I checked ‘market arbitrage’ includes the possibility of buying and selling on exchanges as required. And this is somehow worse than running a ponzi scheme? You have funny ideas about right and wrong Vandroiy.


When did he implicitly confirm a theory that's bullshit from the start? On the contrary, if it turns out he's buying and selling coins on the exchanges, as well as engaging in local transactions, that would be entirely consistent with what he said he’s doing. And whoever said he was doing it without losses? All traders make losses. It’s part of the deal. But unless you are operating hand to mouth, you don't pass on your losses on to your investors unless you absolutely have to. If your profits are high enough, you simply absorb the losses and get on with the job.


You’re putting words into my mouth which I never said. Perhaps you missed the part where i said 'large number of bitcoins.' Do you have access to the (possibly) largest bitcoin wallet of them all? Do you have access to one of the top five wallets? If not, then I do not think it would be easy for you to make 1% a day. Its doable, but certainly not easy. I'm sure you're a competent trader, but you don't have access to the same pot of resources pirate does. Don't feel too bad, you're in the same boat as just about everyone else.

Some of us know those returns are possible. During my best I made 40% per month return for 8 months. Made a killing and haven't had to work a day since then. But the thing that makes absolutely no sense is sharing those returns with strangers. Even with a small amount invested by now if he was running anything legit he would buy back most of the investments and just keeping profits for himself. It has passed the point where the explanation of "hedging risk of volatile btc market" makes any sort of sense. As the interest payouts far exceed what would have been lost by now. When you get these types of returns you keep it private, because it won't last long, and you make a nice life for yourself. You don't payout to strangers.

I can, man, and yea, I can't deny it is pretty damn hilarious. Really, sometimes feels like I'm on the wrong side. I can't even back out now, because of all the slander accusations and bet offers. I mean, lol this is at least the third time you're openly talking about this. It's a farce.

I don't get the "anything sentence" thing though.



coin_toss, imsaguy:

Yes, it might not work in court. But it's true. And your version of it is much much worse, because any real application of it means Pirateat is frequently shorting BTC with customers' money! Going deeper into these "theories" make things worse, not better.

Keep on this "exercise" for me. Last full week volume was low around 250k BTC, with overall price drifting on the order of the 2% in question. This week already saw 200k at no overall price change (using bitcoincharts weekly OHLC, http://bitcoincharts.com/charts/mtgoxUSD#rg150zigWeeklyztgOzm1g10zm2g25zv). 20k give or take? Hell knows what the market will do, but this isn't deciding it. And in whatever case, Pirateat40 has to buy back these coins, so all he can do is a temporary delay of the price-change!

It's not just about the "exercise" content. He implicitly confirmed a theory on his business that's bullshit from the start, and now he's shown that he probably couldn't do it without losses, let alone 3300% pa! Magical arbitrage? You did not ask a trader. That or you just took the first guy with posts on the speculation forum and half his coins in BS&T.



Read this again. Dude, what. So everyone with lots of BTC is a colossal idiot, and traders especially? You're aware we could just add our funds together, right? Gee, thanks for telling me I'm a fucking idiot at something I've been doing effectively for years, right to my face. I missed out on a factor 6 this year already, one that was relatively simple to get? Are you serious?

You're insulting me far more than psy could with any amount of "jealous son of a bitch" shouts.