I can see a flash crash to sub $2k after the current bulltrap

Samarkand

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Quote from: 1Referee on September 15, 2017, 03:13:13 PM

...
No one initially. Just because miners are minting 1800BTC per day on average, it doesn't mean they will be sold automatically - miners are known to keep holding on to their coins after minting. If they end up cashing out a certain part of their mintings, they do that gradually to not drive the price down too much, because at the end of the day, they don't want to ruin their own game.
...

This is definitely true. Especially, because holding on to the BTC for some time has almost always been the most profitable
play in the last 8 years. Most miners probably need to sell at least a part of the mining rewards in order to pay for
electricity, payroll, hardware and taxes. But most miners have been around for some time and therefore
have accumulated a "warchest", which enables them to hold on to their coins for longer and by this
increase their profits.

Besides, most mining pool operators are big believers in the technology of Bitcoin as well, which makes
it even more likely that they are long-term holders.

kwukduck

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Well that bulltrap wasn't hard to see, here we go. Down 10% already lol

aeternus

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Quote from: waytn on September 15, 2017, 02:34:43 PM

Simply because the lack of Chinese bag holders to buy and hold our bags.

every day 2k of bitcoin created, who is going to buy them?
huge amount of bitcoins gonna be sold by Chinese, no one can buy them and hold the price above $2k, in fact, not even $1k.

Miners are heavily invested in bitcoin, even if that many coins are created everyday, that is not a big amount to begin with when there are already 16.5 million coins and most miners only sell enough bitcoin to cover their costs and they keep the rest in the hopes that bitcoin becomes more valuable.

Catmony

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Quote from: waytn on September 15, 2017, 02:34:43 PM

every day 2k of bitcoin created, who is going to buy them?
huge amount of bitcoins gonna be sold by Chinese, no one can buy them and hold the price above $2k, in fact, not even $1k.

$2k bitcoin is just nothing and it will never make any huge dump on market.

Another round of dump is quite likely right now because current bounce can't be justified by any reasons. Big guys can now make safe exit...

But under $2k is quite unrealistic prediction... Expecting dip upto $3k.

Carlsen

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I think the planned regulations we see in China are kind of on the low side of regulations we could expect.
The market was fearing much stricter rules, many thought of a complete shutdown of all exchanges.
From the informations we have at the moment, it will come differently. And according to that the price has reacted.
There is no bulltrap, the price has adjusted to the current state of informations.
Of course, if the regulative rules will change again, we will see another reaction on the market.

uraharasan

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Quote from: waytn on September 15, 2017, 02:34:43 PM

Simply because the lack of Chinese bag holders to buy and hold our bags.

every day 2k of bitcoin created, who is going to buy them?
huge amount of bitcoins gonna be sold by Chinese, no one can buy them and hold the price above $2k, in fact, not even $1k.

It is impossible to reach 2k $ it is too far when it reaches 3.5k $ course not necessarily can and hope not because I have bought btc when the price is 4k $.

cafucafucafu

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Quote from: waytn on September 15, 2017, 02:34:43 PM

Simply because the lack of Chinese bag holders to buy and hold our bags.

every day 2k of bitcoin created, who is going to buy them?
huge amount of bitcoins gonna be sold by Chinese, no one can buy them and hold the price above $2k, in fact, not even $1k.

Well currently it is doing the exact opposite - climbing its way slowly up.

It could be a bull trap. Defintiely a possibility there. I feel like this current pump is brought by the reopening of BTC-e in the form of WEX, and people able to access their token balances and actually trade again.

Even if it does crash, it won't go down to sub $1k. I think lowest we gunna go this year is going to be around $2k. If we go any lower then it's going to be a great time to buy.

dothebeats

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Bull trap = Chinese? You must be high. If this is indeed a bull trap, then who made this recent climb? The Chinese, which you presume that wouldn't be able to trade? Lol, it doesn't make sense.

What China banned is the exchanges on their jurisdiction, and they have until Sept. 30 to close shop. Aside from that, they haven't banned their citizens in using bitcoin or utilizing any overseas exchanges for their coins, so the Chinese can still trade. If a crash would appear again, I hope it really cross sub-$2k for a long-term hold once more, but it's not gonna hapen since China isn't the largest by trade volume since Japan, India and SoKor lead the eastern markets.

CryptoBry

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Quote

The western market should disconnect itself from China, which is something that should have been happened a long while ago already. Everything that happens in China, is their problem, not ours. If they end up dumping their coins on the western markets, then so be it - only an utter idiot will entirely cash out something with the potential of reaching insane levels in the far future.

It is really high time that we all disconnect from China. For too long the China market has had been that pain in the pass. the government in there is not as open as Japan when it comes to cryptocurrency all because Bitcoin is not compatible with their own political agenda which is global domination...these bureaucrats want to have the control for the world and since Bitcoin is decentralized then they see some problems with it. We can all survive without China officially recognizing Bitcoin. And we have to do it now!

HabBear

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Quote from: waytn on September 15, 2017, 02:34:43 PM

Simply because the lack of Chinese bag holders to buy and hold our bags.

every day 2k of bitcoin created, who is going to buy them?
huge amount of bitcoins gonna be sold by Chinese, no one can buy them and hold the price above $2k, in fact, not even $1k.

Why do you think that the Chinese can't buy them just because their local exchanges are going away? The Chinese have been funneling their wealth out of their Republic for years...into any asset they can stash it (particularly real estate). They'll do the same with Bitcoin.

Perhaps a better question is, what will you do if Bitcoin hits $2,000? Are you going to walk away or are you going double down?

The Sceptical Chymist

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Quote from: 1Referee on September 15, 2017, 03:13:13 PM

Just because the current Chinese exchanges are forced to shut down, doesn't mean Chinese people won't be able to buy and sell Bitcoin through other ways. Wink

Thank you! I wish the idiots who start all these threads about China would realize this. China is not out of the bitcoin game by any means. China has not outlawed crypto, even though I'm not 100% sure what they're doing over there. This last drop was probably just traders getting scared, panicking, and selling.

A flash crash? Maybe. I wouldn't argue against it, especially since flash crashes are totally unexpected. Lol, who predicts one of those??

Anyway, I bought some Dash recently since it got whacked along with most of the other altcoins. We'll see if I make a few pennies on it.

Pursuer

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Where is my ring of blades...

I was sitting here thinking I should go to bitcointalk and seek out advice from someone who doesn't even have the guts to post from his main account and has to create a new throwaway just to make 1 and only 1 comment here.
now I am going to dump my coins because OP gave me a valuable advice on his throwaway account /s

magneto

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Quote from: waytn on September 15, 2017, 02:34:43 PM

Simply because the lack of Chinese bag holders to buy and hold our bags.

every day 2k of bitcoin created, who is going to buy them?
huge amount of bitcoins gonna be sold by Chinese, no one can buy them and hold the price above $2k, in fact, not even $1k.

2k bitcoins is nothing when you compare it to the daily trading volume. It can easily be absorbed by western investors. Chinese people aren't the only ones in the cryptocurrency investing scene.

But yeah, i think right now could be a bear trap. I feel like price belongs to less than $3000, especially after so much tension in the regulatory side of this.

The price may go up to $4k+ again, though i think it'll eventually adjust down to its rightful value at around $2500-3500. I wouldn't call this a flash crash though, it'll be done in stages.

exstasie

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Quote from: waytn on September 15, 2017, 02:34:43 PM

Simply because the lack of Chinese bag holders to buy and hold our bags.

every day 2k of bitcoin created, who is going to buy them?
huge amount of bitcoins gonna be sold by Chinese, no one can buy them and hold the price above $2k, in fact, not even $1k.

But the Chinese account for much smaller trading volumes than other market leaders like Japan and the USA. In fact, several exchanges like Bitfinex, GDAX and Bitstamp had record-setting days for volume traded. That says something about how much this market has matured. Just a 40% correction from the top before massive record-setting volume comes in. And that's at $3000, a price we were only dreaming of last year.

The strong demand for BTC despite the China news is palpable. It could be a bull trap. But even if you're right, this bounce has got some miles left on it. Let's cross that bridge when we come to it. Tongue

hello_good_sir

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Quote from: waytn on September 15, 2017, 02:34:43 PM

Simply because the lack of Chinese bag holders to buy and hold our bags.

every day 2k of bitcoin created, who is going to buy them?
huge amount of bitcoins gonna be sold by Chinese, no one can buy them and hold the price above $2k, in fact, not even $1k.

China is not the only player in the bitcoin market. They are a very big market but if you look at volume you'll see that markets with fees Korea and US based exchanges are far far in front of Chinese exchanges.

A flash crash could be likely if this current rise in price turned out to be a bull trap.

Either way, i don't think that the bullishness that we've seen in the past few months can be sustained any longer. We're reaching a tipping point, and i think price will go to less than $3k and stay there, if not even less than that.

jorneyflair

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Quote from: waytn on September 15, 2017, 02:34:43 PM

Simply because the lack of Chinese bag holders to buy and hold our bags.

every day 2k of bitcoin created, who is going to buy them?
huge amount of bitcoins gonna be sold by Chinese, no one can buy them and hold the price above $2k, in fact, not even $1k.

When BTCChina shuts down there will still be other exchanges like OKcoin if i'm not mistaken. BTCChina does have quite a big market share in China but it's definitely not the only way that the Chinese can accumulate their BTC.

I agree that it's probably a bull trap right now and most likely price is going down to around $2.5k after this. But i don't think it's going to be sub-$2k any time soon, let alone the sub-$1k prediction that you are making.

I would say anyone wanting to enter the market, at least do so without going "all-in".

xFiber

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Quote from: maku on September 15, 2017, 03:14:00 PM

Op, the current rising trend is not a bull trap it is back to the normal rising trend after we were fed with Chinese FUD, like always.
There is high demand for Bitcoin and it is growing every day - don't worry about the situation where newly created coins will 'go to waste' because there won't be anyone willing to buy it.
This is not the probable scenario at all. of course nothing is impossible with Bitcoin, but the pros of having BTC definitely outweigh the coins. Crash to $1000 is not happening.

I think you're too quick in saying that we're back where we left off. Crash to 1000 is certainly not happening but I'm expecting an overall red month. Maybe more will follow (looking looking at the bigger picture).

adzino

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Quote from: maku on September 15, 2017, 03:14:00 PM

Op, the current rising trend is not a bull trap it is back to the normal rising trend after we were fed with Chinese FUD, like always.
There is high demand for Bitcoin and it is growing every day - don't worry about the situation where newly created coins will 'go to waste' because there won't be anyone willing to buy it.
This is not the probable scenario at all. of course nothing is impossible with Bitcoin, but the pros of having BTC definitely outweigh the coins. Crash to $1000 is not happening.

As far as i know, the Chinese regulatory bodies and the government allowed exchanges which weren't involved with any kinds of activities related to any ICOs where given one month time before they are to shut down permanently. This caused the price to rise a bit for a while. Not sure how badly it will crash after 30th September.

Skarner21

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Massive price drop coming...

Quote from: maku on September 15, 2017, 03:14:00 PM

Op, the current rising trend is not a bull trap it is back to the normal rising trend after we were fed with Chinese FUD, like always.
There is high demand for Bitcoin and it is growing every day - don't worry about the situation where newly created coins will 'go to waste' because there won't be anyone willing to buy it.
This is not the probable scenario at all. of course nothing is impossible with Bitcoin, but the pros of having BTC definitely outweigh the coins. Crash to $1000 is not happening.

I heard a good from other members here there was a twitter account from exchanges in china that they will run exchanges again few days or weeks before they get license .. For now better to buy more bitcoins because you are just wasting your time to wait for $2k value that i think its impossible for now to see this price.. Look at the price right now is really increasing high and spec that the price will reach 4k sooner..

classicsucks

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Quote from: 1Referee on September 15, 2017, 03:13:13 PM

Quote from: waytn on September 15, 2017, 02:34:43 PM

Simply because the lack of Chinese bag holders to buy and hold our bags.

Just because the current Chinese exchanges are forced to shut down, doesn't mean Chinese people won't be able to buy and sell Bitcoin through other ways. Wink

Quote from: waytn on September 15, 2017, 02:34:43 PM

every day 2k of bitcoin created, who is going to buy them?

No one initially. Just because miners are minting 1800BTC per day on average, it doesn't mean they will be sold automatically - miners are known to keep holding on to their coins after minting. If they end up cashing out a certain part of their mintings, they do that gradually to not drive the price down too much, because at the end of the day, they don't want to ruin their own game.

Quote from: waytn on September 15, 2017, 02:34:43 PM

huge amount of bitcoins gonna be sold by Chinese, no one can buy them and hold the price above $2k, in fact, not even $1k.

The western market should disconnect itself from China, which is something that should have been happened a long while ago already. Everything that happens in China, is their problem, not ours. If they end up dumping their coins on the western markets, then so be it - only an utter idiot will entirely cash out something with the potential of reaching insane levels in the far future.

It's way too late for that... haven't you heard about "Chimerica"? https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Chimerica

Topic: I can see a flash crash to sub $2k after the current bulltrap (Read 1064 times)