it can only go the moon if it gets an 1.extremely high transactional use and/or 2. gets a high stored value (like gold)
re 1 the first world countries (US for example) can already do all the transactions they need without bitcoin. It may well save fees but most people use credit cards for access to the credit so it will never really compete with visa etc. In the third world where bitcoin is touted as the saviour from western union type companies who charge higher handling fees most of that "fee' goes to pay for the final handover of the money eg having an office in the place. It provides the 'security" people need that they are to get their money easily, quickly and in their local currency. so I do not see western union under major threat. if they do see a threat to some market share they will react in some way that lessens bitcoins effect (and therefore uptake)
re 2 it could get some sort of stored value through the use of the blockchain but I see other ideas coming along (eg etherum) that may be better here- at the very least they will eat into bitcoins potential.
also the US dollar I understand moves about 10% per annum. Bitcoin rises and falls fast and in big chunks. Makes it great for speculators but terrifies the people who store things under the mattress as well as institutional investors. Until that stops there is not much chance people will value it as a store of wealth and the longer that goes on as other posters has said bitcoin may just become irrelevant except to the very few who love the concept of it for itself
Your 2 scenarios are reasons why bitcoin will succeed in my opinion.
1. Transaction fees are minimal with bitcoin. Credit cards cost retailers money and I'm taxed €50 a year for my credit card! Western Union need to make money. Cut them out of the equation and the only loser is Western Union which is already happening.
2. Think of it like gold only transportable so easily. Gold has value so why not bitcoin. Point made.
I am not so sure.
1. I do not use a credit card as i do not want to pay the fees nor do I need the credit facility but I use a debit card that comes free from my bank. That allows me to do electronic transactions etc ie much of what bitcoin "offers'. So you can do the same and save €50 a year but presumably you want/need their funds (credit) part as well.
re cutting western union out of the equation - there will always be a place for a western union type operation. Bitcoin will eat into their market but only at the edges. I also think by the time bitcoin becomes strong/large enough to compete with the likes of western unions it will carry some non mining costs that people will want payment for. ie if you want exchanges to be trustworthy they will have to have some sort of regulation and that brings with it compliance costs etc.
2. that something is easily transportable is a reason for adopting it and using it but does not make it inherently valuable.
A lot of people have company credit cards which are paid off automatically and still require the €50 tax. Notwithstanding that, debit cards also incur that €50 annual tax. Damned if you do, damned if you don't.
But you have got to agree that cutting the middleman i.e. Western Union helps everybody except Western Union. Why will there always be a place for Western Union? Why would bitcoin have any 'non mining cost' when it's peer to peer (no middleman taking his cut)?
Gold has as no inherent value either. Only because it's rare. Bitcoin is also rare but far easier to transport so therefore in my opinion a better store of wealth.
It's the internet baby! Prepare for BIG change.