Topic: I didn't expect to see it went below 56k - page 2. (Read 1623 times)

I think this year is not the year of bitcoin, we have seen bitcoin touches 70k $ milestone and then dropped to in between 50k to 57k dollars. Many analyst predicted that by the mid of 2024 bitcoin will cross 100k $ milestone but bitcoin failed to break the 100k$ barrier. As we know the world is facing economic problems so there will be no huge pump this year.

In addition, in the last 2 halvings prior to this this year, we have haven't seen the market getting into a new all time high pre-halving. So this is the first time that we have seen and it might have change the course of this bull run already.

I'm not saying that we won't have a bull run, but it could have been invalidated what the combine (average) data of the last 2 halvings plus this one. We will eventually reach bull run, but we might have to wait a little big longer, like 150++ days or even more in this version of the halving + imminent bull run.

It can still go down just like what happened today. I think another news came in that this has something to do with what Warren Buffett does. He knows something that not the majority knows. He's cashing money and waiting for a great dip I guess and when he's done, we'd see the market to become stable once again.

I'm still believing that we're on the consolidation period and count it, maybe 3-4 months and we'd see how stronger the bulls are. Right now, we're seeing the correlation of Bitcoin to the global market. But when it's done, we'd see how high it can go like no one has ever predicted or probably some and believed that it can be reached for this cycle. There's still more to go for this year and next year but it's true that don't be too overconfident that it cannot go.

We're likely in there but I believe that there's always the uniqueness for each of these bull runs and after halvings.

Do you consider this based on the data of Bitcoin monthly return?
If you take a look closely, we mostly have red market in August-November in the first year of every bullrun season. Kindly check the market trends in August-November of 2020 and 2016! So, it is not really surprising if the price is not rising significantly now. And we must be aware that the ATH has been achieved before halving in this year, we have a bit different pattern with the previous bullrun season.

It is true, each halving may have a different timing. Sure, we don't be pessimistic because it is something normal. There is no certain pattern of the price movement of Bitcoin, it may change at any time. As long as we still have good news about crypto and Bitcoin, we must be optimistic that there will be another peak of Bitcoin price in the remaining time of the current bullrun season.

Sometimes its always that important to look up into the past specially into these similar condition specially in speaking about post-halving thing on which we could really be able to count numbers
and making up some comparison in between cycles on which the days different and on the value that it is really be involving into it. Seeing up those values does really indicate
that this market is really that truly random and there's no way that you could really be able to predict on what would happening next. Take a look for example about those recent dip of 48k and then the price
did make out some recovery and hitting up 60k and now we are going down again. These kind of movements would really be that basically making you thinking on what the heck is happening
into this market?

This is why it would really be that important that you do come prepared for whatever conditions that you might be able to face on when dealing up with this market. Always expect the unexpected
and always prepare for some USDT on which it would really be something relevant on the moment or time that you would really be seeing these market dips on which you could potentially
make yourself have the chance to accumulate or making those good entries on which later on it would really be that giving profits on the time that the market will recover.

We are 118 days after the having.
Looking at the past price actions, if we consider the combined (average) data from the last 3 halvings, we should now be above the price at the halving and in the middle of bull run.
But each halving had a different timing. i.e. in the 2016 one, 120 days after halving we were also below the halving price and it took around 150 days for it to go above that. So I wouldn't worry to much about the price at this stage.

Dangerous words when nobody thinks it can go down.   Like those are famous last words, the market is a tricky beast that wants to snap back and bite us always.

I do see weakness right now and tellingly the volume is not there on positive days to really assure me we are past the worst of selling, I think more scares happen.   However lower prices are what I prefer because Im still wanting to buy into weakness & if anything  lower means a better price in exchange for what Im going to do either way, set a buy order.

Agree on the volatility, but its time to take the tiger by the tail and be ready for that fight.   I think we are going up eventually but should not ignore all negatives such as the 50 day average falling below the 200 day.  There is quite a few signs of weakness but its short to medium term and overall I find 2024 to be positive and accumulative.

If we dont regain 58k by midnight, ring the bell we are bearish [today onwards, weekly also we are negative].  Certainly the weekly bar needs to be above that measure, it seems it wont be.  Last week was a recovery and the hope of more, this week its slipping away right in front of us.

Yeah, could you imagine the price in the next four months the price is going to be on the on the $60k'ish?

I doubt that it will happen though, no offense to your prediction, although the price today is $57k from the highs of $61k we have seen in the last couple of days. As for the OP, yeah, no one thinks that it can go down low at this point.

But this is Bitcoin market, the very definition of a volatile market. In the early beginning of year or prior to the halving, we have a new all time high. Now post halving, the price seems to be tanking.

Of course even though we are optimistic about the bitcoin outlook in Q4 but we also have to understand because the name of disaster is not in anyone's calendar, something that cannot be predicted always comes and it is a mystery in a future journey, we must really understand the possibility of bad even though it is quite optimistic bullish in front of the eyes in order to manage the risks we can take at this time.

Yes you are not alone in such expectations, because if it affects the global economy it will be very painful for any market including bitcoin, hopefully it does not affect bitcoin at large, and the fear is just like a war like the wind.

I also think so, but every different possibility can always happen in the market so everyone must also be more prepared to face the level of Bitcoin price correction in the market when approaching Q4 this year. Although I am still more optimistic about the price increase at the end of this year because there are many parties who are happy enough to buy Bitcoin and continue to hold it until now.

I hope this doesn't happen because if it could happen this year it would most likely have an impact on all markets including the crypto market itself. So I just hope that the impact of the war between the two countries doesn't really affect the market if indeed the war cannot be avoided because each country still has an ego in showing their own abilities.

56k is still not that far away and we have to sort out that yet again we made a new low in this sequence.   That I presume must be tested and proven finished before we move on.

However away from that , a new factor is the 50 day average trading below the 200 day.  Since late last October the 50 day has been above the 200 showing the positive momentum and gains that were occurring regularly in the price.  

Even after the recent double digit % gains in one day its not been enough to alter these longer standing averages.  We have slowed down enough to say that BTC is not gaining overall.  Nice start to the year but its become caught up here.

I call this consolidation, I wont opt to say its bearish but without doubt this crossover of 50DMA below 200DMA shows slow down.   This condition last appeared as a trend in 2022 which saw a great pullback.
  I say its consolidating but also pullback  has to be written down & considered as the next period for BTC


Last days of 2023 I wrote in a poll and posted 60k as my guess for 2024 end (Dec).  We're there now but I doubt we'll stay flat for months

I think the market can be predicted, it's just that the exact price is difficult to determine. We can predict what price range will be in a certain time period when doing analysis, but it will be very difficult to say the exact value. The existing volatility should be considered normal and it will always be beneficial for those who are able to maximize it. Investors who have strong capital will buy a lot during price drops, giving them huge returns.

The best thing to do when prices are falling is to hold and continue accumulating. The problem is that not everyone can do it, while some panic and accept the loss. Bullish sentiment will likely come in a few weeks or months, but the market will take time to recover.

Indeed, the price of btc will always be difficult to predict. This was seen after the global market crashed and then caused the crypto market to fall, even bitcoin fell to a price of $ 49k on August 2 yesterday. However, after a few days later bitcoin slowly began to recover and indeed btc seemed to be the spearhead in market recovery. Because after BTC fell to a price of $ 49k with a decrease of % 20 but now BTC has returned to $ 60k, this means that BTC has also recovered and grown by % 20.
After bitcoin broke through the $ 62k mark even though it is now holding for a long time in the $ 60k area, this indicates that the market is improving again and it is not impossible that btc will continue to soar in the next few months. So even though btc is difficult to predict, it would be better if we continue to do dca on bitcoin and continue to hold btc until the desired target is achieved. The price of btc is indeed volatile but we must avoid decisions caused by panic.

Q4 this year might be a special year for bitcoin, there is a lot of bullish sentiment from the economic macro for bitcoin, even if the correction returns in my opinion it will not be separated from the price of $56k, this will not be repeated if you see the current situation.

The biggest fear is the escalation of the war between Iran and Israel, if this involves more countries in conflict it could be the worst negative thing, we know that these two countries have their loyal friends in running their business and strong government, if it comes to blocking the industry it could and become a conflict between two associations or camps will have a bad impact on the global economy.

Bitcoin market price remained an unpredictable thing to do, we may not be precise on the exact rate of how dip it may go and also, we cannot tell on when and how fast it could pump in favour of the investment we are making, as we see some few days back, the market plummet down to $48,000 before pumping back to $62,000 and were it is now, this is part of the expectations with the volatile market because we are going to see it at any direction.

If you find the market fundamentals turn very negative for some bad reason, then you may find the price of bitcoin falling very deeply.
Several factors can be used as a benchmark for analyzing future prices, one of which is circulating news. If FUD about bitcoin increases, the price will fall accordingly, and vice versa when the price will rise.

Exact prices are difficult to predict, but you can determine whether the market will grow or fall by finding several reasons. Currently the market is unstable, I mean not very positive after falling to $49k, but the market is starting to recover where bitcoin is back to trading around $60k.

I hope you're right, Bitcoin_people. We will see it back from vacation, as I expect the last quarter of the year to be the time when we will pass the ATH by large and enter uncharted territory. If price doesn't get it, it will be a difficult situation because the trend of cycles that we have seen  so far will break, and that could be uncharted territory too, but in the worst sense possible.

Anyway, I'm optimistic, and recent news predict a bright future that I hope will come true.

I think bitcoin price will never touch $38k this month is a completely wrong analysis. Because we know that the bull season is waiting in 2025 and at that time the price of Bitcoin is likely to exceed $100k. As the price of Bitcoin hit its all-time low of $49,000 this month, most people were worried that Bitcoin might fall further. But we can now expect hope to return from the upswing in the Bitcoin market and expect the price of Bitcoin to rise further in the coming days. However, since the Bitcoin market is currently above $60,000, we can expect $70,000 by the end of this month. As the bull season is coming soon we can see and look forward to it then the price of Bitcoin will increase even more.

No one knows if bitcoin will back to 38k$ price all we know is bitcoin price is unstable it moves everytime from low to high and from high to low so there is no need to be astonished if you follow bitcoin from year 2016 till present you will see a lot of high and lows and the people who hold will always win or earn profit.

Today the price of Bitcoin is still in the range of $60K even though it had increased to more than $62K in the past two days and in general I am starting to be less worried about market conditions when I see a little price recovery in Bitcoin like now. Because some of the things you said could have a positive impact on Bitcoin and the crypto market this year, and moreover, there is a US presidential candidate who is also very fond of Bitcoin, so there is a better potential if the candidate can win the election in November.