OMG
all your IF if if.
your not thinking about risk your thinking of shying away from risks with 'if' statements
you are not even considering malicious intent to double spend.
instead your saying if there is no double spend then you can accept a tx with 1 confirm
Are you ignorant, blind, terrible at reading comprehension, or all of the above?
The only IF that I said is IF A MINER DOES NOT UPGRADE. How about this, it means exactly the same thing: Miners who do not upgrade and continue to operate as they do now will not have their blocks orphaned by those who do upgrade.
the point of FULLY VALIDATING INCLUDING SIGNATURES is to rule out malicious or accidentally nasty data.
untill all pools are running updated software
untill all pools are proven not to be malicious
untill all nodes before yours are proven to not be malicious.
then you should not trust the data you receive.
but in utopia then you can be comforted to not need to fully validate a transaction, because you TRUST the network will do it for you.
in which case validating independently and diversly and decentrally is no longer required..
so think about this:
why do you think bitcoin needs to be independently and decentrally validated..
think about bitcoins whole ethos. think about why double spends happen why orphans happen
segwit has not fixed that and its still a problem which is the point of needing decentralized and independent validation.. to not trust a miner is uptodate and ethical.
let me guess.. next month you will be saying segwit is such a success nodes are not needed because all the pools are running core and they alone can hold the blockchain. and you will start promoting only running lite clients because you think independent security is not relevant
come on wake up!!
ask yourself why decentralized nodes exist.
why not let just the pools hold the blockchain.. if they are so ethical and perfect