Topic: I fear - BTC is set for another downturn (Read 6494 times)
I agree with OP.
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Now newbies can immediately post anywhere? This forum would soon become an even dirtier shithole than it is now
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i get excited by thinking of buying more coins @32 to 50$
... but normally not having that much luck
... but normally not having that much luck
action happened
went to 116,78
next stop should be 105-107
what do you say?
went to 116,78
next stop should be 105-107
what do you say?
Yes, I've seen the price improvement happening as well on the hourly chart. Volume characteristics on the hourly chart also improved a bit, in line with the earlier positive divergence in the RSI. That short term downward trendline was broken, now price is creeping towards the downward sloping trendline of a higher degree. I'm watching the price action closely, as the price moves towards that more important downward trendline.
Yet, on the daily chart, the internals are still not positive, to turn me around. Markets like these (and especially BTC
) can take you by surprise indeed. Either to the upside (though still don't expect it) or to the downside in a nasty and swift move. Either way - too risky for me at the moment, so I'm still out. 
Thanks for the update, will keep in mind.
action happened
went to 116,78
next stop should be 105-107
what do you say?
went to 116,78
next stop should be 105-107
what do you say?
For those that might be interested: here's a quick update on how I look at the current market, after we got the decline I anticipated.
Are we done yet? I suspect we are not, and expect we're heading for the 80-ies instead. At this point in time, almost all signs point to much further selling, and boy... there is indeed selling going on. The only "positive" might be a positive divergence that sets up in the RSI. However it is NOT confirmed. Only if the downward sloping short term trendline is taken out, things may turn a bit for the better. BTC has room to $108/$107 in the coming hours while still remaining in the down trend.
First the proof, then the action. So I remain out of this market.
http://imageshack.us/a/img692/9757/chart3t.png
A penny for my thoughts? Then drop me one
at 15S4zBMzP23hHWZNFndYaM3KYeLRUkZ8Qsthanks for the post OP
helpful...
I'm into reading TA but don't understand all of it yet.
I would argue that low volume on an uptrend makes sense though if the done thing to do with bitcoin is buy, and hold. Sellers are more and more reluctant to sell at market prices so the bidders have to reach further. Does that make sense?
helpful...
I'm into reading TA but don't understand all of it yet.
I would argue that low volume on an uptrend makes sense though if the done thing to do with bitcoin is buy, and hold. Sellers are more and more reluctant to sell at market prices so the bidders have to reach further. Does that make sense?
I understand what you're saying, but I cannot think of a way for that to hold true. You see, the sellers are actually NOT reluctant to sell. They are willing to sell at much lower prices. Big time. That constitutes the legs down. During those declines the buyers are not powerful enought to stop it. During those relief rallies that you are referring to, the price is indeed bid up on light volume. As such, I read that as luring buyers into the markets (well, granted: the buyers decide for themselves that "the worst is over"
) . Only to see the market crack once the heavier volume (selling orders) come in again. You would need much higher market participation of buyers in order to really be able to reverse the down trend. Otherwise, the relief rally will fail. In essence it is about this: the basic universal law of supply & demand apply to this BTC market.
Proudhon's trying to quit the speculation subforum cold turkey, so he got irritated when he saw this in Bitcoin Discussion.
LOL
this is what marriage feels like. fighting.
cool,I get it!
Proudhon's trying to quit the speculation subforum cold turkey, so he got irritated when he saw this in Bitcoin Discussion.
Cool story bro. There's a whole forum for this.
We miss you!
I sold some, so let's hope this become a self-fulfilling prophecy, you know, just like GS's gold call
thanks for the post OP
helpful...
I'm into reading TA but don't understand all of it yet.
I would argue that low volume on an uptrend makes sense though if the done thing to do with bitcoin is buy, and hold. Sellers are more and more reluctant to sell at market prices so the bidders have to reach further. Does that make sense?
helpful...
I'm into reading TA but don't understand all of it yet.
I would argue that low volume on an uptrend makes sense though if the done thing to do with bitcoin is buy, and hold. Sellers are more and more reluctant to sell at market prices so the bidders have to reach further. Does that make sense?
The price is going to $150 by the end of next week at the latest because of the news from China.
That's already priced in. If it goes to $150, that will not be the reason.
How could that be priced in? It only happened a couple of days ago.
Because upon hearing that news, speculators drove the price up accordingly.
To a long time holder, and even to a speculator. There will simply not be a sustainable price advance if volume (=people wanting the freakin' bitcoin) is not there.
I'm sure you agree that the relevant volume here is USD (since that's the ressource we need enough of to maintain or raise btc price). Hence: "Volume in currency" in the following chart:
Looks good to me. Between 2 and 5 times as high as in March (when the price approached 40), and 10? 20? as high as in January, February. Maybe not the volume to support a price in the multiple 100s, but enough to support 100, 150? Why yes, looks like it to me.
Yes, in the long run volume is higher, that is correct. But that would be reasoning from a "buy and hold" long position only. Yet, the chart is confirming my chart and point of view: the intermediate swings that you see show higher volume on falling prices, and lower volume (compared to the previous price drop) on price appreciation. Just look at it in a bit more detail. Otherwise, I just rest my case, but had hoped to point you to the "internals"
Looks like we're in agreement then.
Also, your post gave me an idea: I am wondering now if there is a detailed comparison between trade volume in USD and bitcoin price. The bitcoinchart rendering doesn't give me what I want, and a quick Google search didn't help either. So I downloaded the raw data from bitcoincharts and will see if I can run a correlation test on it.
...
Most stocks are shares in a company that already have operational founds, and it's really about the valuation of the firm as it is. A high stock-price will help a firm to get good lending deals etc. but they don't use the stock market as a "cash pool".
Right, the funds are not necessarily directly available. But they are are often needed to operate and provide higher valuations to secure loans. But at some point if the value falls to much the company may hit a cash crunch and not have the collateral to take on new debt. If they crash the stock will be worthless. Bitcoin could loose popularity and become less valuable, but it is not going to go broke and could always bounce back. Most stocks are shares in a company that already have operational founds, and it's really about the valuation of the firm as it is. A high stock-price will help a firm to get good lending deals etc. but they don't use the stock market as a "cash pool".
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