I feel the report about UK economy losing 700 billion is wrong!!! - page 2.

wxa7115

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Quote from: Juggy777 on May 11, 2021, 02:19:13 AM

NIESR has prepared an report which projects an loss of £700 billion for the UK economy in 5 years time, and they have blamed Boris government for this projected loss.

However I feel that UK economy will bounce back strongly, and not only will they prove this report wrong but they will be able to outgrow the pre pandemic economic levels.

The key reason for my analysis is that UK has vaccinated over 60% of it’s population, and this means that soon it’ll be business as usual for them, and hence their economy will be able to bounce back faster and stronger than what the economists had initially predicted.

Additional Information:

https://www.theguardian.com/business/2021/may/10/uk-economy-to-suffer-700bn-output-loss-due-to-covid-and-brexit-thinktank-warns

https://www.foxnews.com/world/after-vaccine-rollout-success-in-uk-covid-could-be-eradicated-by-winter-says-top-scientist

They are close to reach herd immunity and this is good but that is simply not going to be enough to cause the recovery you think will happen, the world has changed, many people lost their jobs and they indebted themselves in order to survive, many businesses closed their doors permanently and those jobs are not coming back and the habits of people have changed as well.

While there are some people that are going back to their old ways and taking advantage of their new found liberties many people are now enjoying a more simple life and they are not as consumerist as before, when you add all of that and the money that has been printed to pay for all of this the chances of a recovery to levels close to what we had before the pandemic in just 5 years is unlikely all around the world and not only in the UK.

jossiel

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It is always the current government/administration that will be blamed for the downness of its economy. And when the economy is up and at high, there's no talk about it.

Quote from: Juggy777 on May 11, 2021, 02:19:13 AM

The key reason for my analysis is that UK has vaccinated over 60% of it’s population, and this means that soon it’ll be business as usual for them, and hence their economy will be able to bounce back faster and stronger than what the economists had initially predicted.

There's no doubt that they will be able to bounce and recover. As soon as they get most of their citizens vaccinated, there shall be no worry anymore about the vaccine and they can now remove restrictions and limits it to a lower restriction but will allow its people to get back at least to their normal lives.

franky1

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the calculation is not based on real money in real bank accounts..

its based on the fictional measure known as GDP

everyone by now should know the GDP measure is not actually accurate to how much money an average person has/spends/saves..as a whole of the population

knowing the government. this is just going to be used to pump in another £800bill of QE

reality is.
pumping in trillions at the top. fakes a GDP to then be higher.. all while the real money doesnt trickle down to average citizens. instead it gets syphoned offshore.
..
todays queens speach and boris's net plan is about subsidising businesses. giving out student loans to anyone of any age and giving more funds to building contractors and tech researches..
so just wait for the next QE trillion to be materialised out of no where to cover all that stuff

mindrust

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Quote from: Juggy777 on May 11, 2021, 02:19:13 AM

NIESR has prepared an report which projects an loss of £700 billion for the UK economy in 5 years time, and they have blamed Boris government for this projected loss.

However I feel that UK economy will bounce back strongly, and not only will they prove this report wrong but they will be able to outgrow the pre pandemic economic levels.

The key reason for my analysis is that UK has vaccinated over 60% of it’s population, and this means that soon it’ll be business as usual for them, and hence their economy will be able to bounce back faster and stronger than what the economists had initially predicted.

Additional Information:

https://www.theguardian.com/business/2021/may/10/uk-economy-to-suffer-700bn-output-loss-due-to-covid-and-brexit-thinktank-warns

https://www.foxnews.com/world/after-vaccine-rollout-success-in-uk-covid-could-be-eradicated-by-winter-says-top-scientist

The internal business might go back to normal but what about international tourism? What if people that want to leave the country to do business or have a vacation? What about the people that want to visit the UK?

"Normalcy only returns when 95% of the world population gets vaccinated."

sheenshane

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Let’s say that the report is accurate or false but the point that the UK was able to vaccinate almost the majority of their people is enough to bounce back in the next 10 years. Indeed that vaccination is expensive but the rate UK was able to reach is enough to control the virus and make the economy work again and we will soon see people back on their tracks, I can tell that with strong conviction.

I really believe in the management the government was able to execute on this pandemic. It’s actually a starting from the bottom now we’re here concept that the UK was actually one of the worst affected countries into the highest rate of vaccinated people.

Lucius

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A country's recovery cannot be measured by how many people have been vaccinated, because it is a public fact that the vaccine has a limited effect and does not protect 100% from infection. At this point, it is not possible to say with certainty how long immunity will last in people who have been vaccinated - but some analyzes say that it could be around 8 months - which means that all those who are vaccinated at the beginning of the year may be exposed to the infection again next winter.

What is an additional weight for the UK economy is of course Brexit and there is no dilemma, the numbers are clear, and they say that last year was the worst in the past 300 years. An important part of the UK economy is tourism, which accounts for about 10% of total revenue and employs just under 4 million people - and we all know that mass travel will not happen this year, and perhaps not even next.

Long-term forecasts can sometimes be wrong, but I don't think experts have gotten such a figure up their sleeve - the fact is that the UK has the biggest economic downturn that is not only the result of a pandemic, but also Brexit.

Mauser

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I agree with you, these analysis with a time frame of more than 2 years are usually not very accurate and feel one sided. When looking at the vaccination numbers than UK is leading in Europe. This means that the UK economy is the fastest that can return back to normal and will be leading compared to other European countries. On top of that will UK be able to export all vaccines ones 100 % of the population is immune. Another important factor seems to me are going to be future trade agreements that will be negotiated within the next few years. The positive impact from such trade is hard to quantify today.

zanezane

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People will always blame the administration no matter what happens, 700 billion isn't a number to joke at. Also, I do think that if UK didn't do the Brexit, they would probably have an easier chance to bounce back in terms of economy, now the people are suffering from that decision.

Juggy777

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NIESR has prepared an report which projects an loss of £700 billion for the UK economy in 5 years time, and they have blamed Boris government for this projected loss.

However I feel that UK economy will bounce back strongly, and not only will they prove this report wrong but they will be able to outgrow the pre pandemic economic levels.

The key reason for my analysis is that UK has vaccinated over 60% of it’s population, and this means that soon it’ll be business as usual for them, and hence their economy will be able to bounce back faster and stronger than what the economists had initially predicted.

Additional Information:

https://www.theguardian.com/business/2021/may/10/uk-economy-to-suffer-700bn-output-loss-due-to-covid-and-brexit-thinktank-warns

https://www.foxnews.com/world/after-vaccine-rollout-success-in-uk-covid-could-be-eradicated-by-winter-says-top-scientist

Topic: I feel the report about UK economy losing 700 billion is wrong!!! - page 2. (Read 275 times)