I have a bad feeling this drop will be much worse than you guys are expecting

muyuu

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Quote from: phelix on February 17, 2012, 03:20:16 AM

Quote from: Edward50 on February 16, 2012, 03:39:44 AM

[...]
Not sure how many bitcoins are made new everyday now but lets assume 7,000. 7,000 bitcoins * 4 = 28,000. Do you think the small bitcoin community has $28,000 dollars a day coming into it? Or better yet $840,000 dollars a month of new cash coming into it?

Lets assume $2.00 per bitcoin, 7,000 * $2 = $14,000 a day. Do you think the bitcoin community even has $14,000 dollars new money coming into it every single day to support all these new coins? This would take $420,000 dollars a month!

Now you are probably thinking, well, most miners hold their bitcoins. Well lets assume that 2,000 coins that are mined each day are sold. $2,000 * 2 = $4000 or $120,000 a month. Does the market have coming into it $120,000 a month?

[...]

theoretically 7200 coins are mined every day (1 block = 50 coins per 10 min) --> 216000 coins per month

this forum alone gets ~ 2000 new members every month.

---> ~~ 108 coins per new user

---> ~~ 500$ per new user

could just work out

I think an average $500 exposure in BTC is very optimistic. My guess is that most miners convert their coins way before that and new users don't keep above 50 BTC or so... which would make current prices still high. However, there's the market expectation that BTC production will be cut in half in under a year. This, however, won't stop short term speculation.

My personal target is $7+ by next February, which makes buying under $5.5 or so very attractive. As long as finances allow, I will be in buying mode. Won't bet my house on it though, as this is a rather risky "investment".

zby

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The real question is how much USD is now in bitcoinica coffers? When will we see the star again? Are the mini-rallies mostly bitcoinica fuelled or are they MtGox fuelled?

phelix

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Quote from: Edward50 on February 16, 2012, 03:39:44 AM

[...]
Not sure how many bitcoins are made new everyday now but lets assume 7,000. 7,000 bitcoins * 4 = 28,000. Do you think the small bitcoin community has $28,000 dollars a day coming into it? Or better yet $840,000 dollars a month of new cash coming into it?

Lets assume $2.00 per bitcoin, 7,000 * $2 = $14,000 a day. Do you think the bitcoin community even has $14,000 dollars new money coming into it every single day to support all these new coins? This would take $420,000 dollars a month!

Now you are probably thinking, well, most miners hold their bitcoins. Well lets assume that 2,000 coins that are mined each day are sold. $2,000 * 2 = $4000 or $120,000 a month. Does the market have coming into it $120,000 a month?

[...]

theoretically 7200 coins are mined every day (1 block = 50 coins per 10 min) --> 216000 coins per month

this forum alone gets ~ 2000 new members every month.

---> ~~ 108 coins per new user

---> ~~ 500$ per new user

could just work out

cloon

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if speculators disappear --> price goes down. price goes down--> new speculators join ~~--> miners leave. miners leave--> bitcoin may die.~~

for me it doesnt matter if the prize is 1 or 10 USD
, make profit while trading prize lvl irrelevant, prizeswings give profit

chsados

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Quote from: jekker on February 16, 2012, 07:00:56 PM

I could give a crap if the Bitcoin drops to $1.00, and here's why.

Let's say i buy 100 BTC at $1.00 a coin, which would equal $100.00 (complicated math). An hour later i'll spend or exchange the 100 BTC and they'll be worth $100.00 (give or take a few dollars). I'm not going to be holding onto coins when the price fluctuates so rapidly and i could lose a lot of money. I think it's smart to quickly buy bitcoins, and then quickly get rid of them before they lose value. Someone who stockpiles their BTC could gain a lot of money as well, but i don't think it's worth the gamble.

valid point, but a lot of the money in the market i assume is purely speculative. if speculators disappear --> price goes down. price goes down--> miners leave. miners leave--> bitcoin may die.

though i bet there will likely never be a short supply of speculators with big pockets always willing to buy at sub $1 prices.

BadBear

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Quote from: ?? on ??

I wouldn't mind a price drop for a time as long as the difficulty went with it. Hopefully this will discourage enough miners so that the supply will go down and stabilize the price. The difficulty is so high that it is barely profitable for a small miner like me. I keep going because it is profitable though. This is my input with my limited but not ignorant knowledge of economics and bitcoin.

Difficulty will adjust so there is always (roughly) the same amount of coins coming in, only change in that is the planned reward changes.

Zotia

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TokenUnion-Get Rewarded for Holding Crypto

Quote from: ?? on ??

I wouldn't mind a price drop for a time as long as the difficulty went with it. Hopefully this will discourage enough miners so that the supply will go down and stabilize the price.

Supply will not change matter how many people mine.

jekker

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I could give a crap if the Bitcoin drops to $1.00, and here's why.

Let's say i buy 100 BTC at $1.00 a coin, which would equal $100.00 (complicated math). An hour later i'll spend or exchange the 100 BTC and they'll be worth $100.00 (give or take a few dollars). I'm not going to be holding onto coins when the price fluctuates so rapidly and i could lose a lot of money. I think it's smart to quickly buy bitcoins, and then quickly get rid of them before they lose value. Someone who stockpiles their BTC could gain a lot of money as well, but i don't think it's worth the gamble.

kpriess

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Money is the root of all evil.

Quote from: bb113 on February 16, 2012, 04:43:56 AM

I have no idea what I am talking about by the way.

Worry not, you know more than OP..

Kettenmonster

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bool eval(bool b){return b ? b==true : b==false;}

SELL SELL SELL!!!shift11oneeleven But make sure to sell cheap, so I can afford it.

p.s.
I hate to repeat myself. Wink

gewure

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[#][#][#]

dude, edward.. just take your profits and stay in hold meanwhile.

don't be greedy and don't overreact... i consider your warning to the bulls as bear-euphoria.

RandyMarsh

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https://bitcointalksearch.org/topic/i-think-it-is-safe-bet-to-buy-bitcoins-now-my-speculation-63335

westkybitcoins

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Firstbits: Compromised. Thanks, Android!

Quote from: Edward50 on February 16, 2012, 03:39:44 AM

I have an bad feeling that we will see a very bad drop this time around.

As someone who stocks up on bitcoins for the long-term, I certainly hope so.

Quote

These numbers are just to show an example of why bitcoins even at $2.00 is way over valued. Bitcoin has still proven to be as useless as ever, even with time.

Your opinion is noted, although I again wonder why you're wasting time here if it's truly useless. Just go and do something more fruitful. You'll be more profitable, and you'll avoid all the hassle and grey hairs.

Quote

I am sorry to say guys that if you hold bitcoins now, expect to lose lots of your value. Expect bitcoin price to head into the $1's.

Thanks for the advice, but I intend to keep holding my savings for now. And for next month, and next year.

And for quite some time after that, actually. Grin

foggyb

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Quote from: M4v3R on February 16, 2012, 07:51:57 AM

Edward: care to prove your point by disclosing your current position?

OP promised a price drop to $1 in October when it hit 2$. Check his posts.

If its $0.50 cents, OP will predict $0.05.

M4v3R

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Edward: care to prove your point by disclosing your current position?

teflone

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You're fat, because you dont have any pics on FB

the sky is falling, the sky is falling... Roll Eyes

runeks

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So... OP is either short on bitcoins or he would like to buy some $1 BTC? Or he could be right?
I hope for the latter, but tend to believe the former. I'd love to see $1 BTCs.

Quote from: Edward50 on February 16, 2012, 03:39:44 AM

Now you are probably thinking, well, most miners hold their bitcoins. Well lets assume that 2,000 coins that are mined each day are sold. $2,000 * 2 = $4000 or $120,000 a month. Does the market have coming into it $120,000 a month?

What happens with all these bitcoins that miners horde and do not sell. Lets assume 5,000 bitcoins a day are horded. Well that means after a month 150,000 bitcoins are now being saved and horded. Lets assume 3% of those coins each day want to be sold 150,000 * 3% = 4500 bitcoins a day being sold.

OK. Let's looks at these two paragraphs. In the first paragraph you assume that miners only sell 2k of the 7k bitcoins that are generated each day.

In the second paragraph you basically dismiss this and say that the hoarders, for some unknown reason, start selling their bitcoins again. The 3% figure you mention amounts to 90% of the hoarded bitcoins being sold a day (5000 bitcoins are hoarded, 4500 bitcoins are sold, you say).
Selling 3% per day of a monthly earning corresponds to selling 90% of a daily earning.

So these two paragraphs can be translated to:

Quote

Let's assume miners sell only 2000 of the 7000 bitcoins they mine.

Let's assume miners sell 90% of the 5000 bitcoins they hoard.

It's not really hoarding if they're selling them is it?

bb113

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I have no idea what I am talking about by the way.

bb113

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upward triangle being painted as we speak...

Jonathan Ryan Owens

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Quote from: ?? on ??

Expect rally in 3... 2... 1...

Wait for it.. Wait for it..

Topic: I have a bad feeling this drop will be much worse than you guys are expecting (Read 3800 times)