Guys... everything that everyone has said in this thread so far has ALWAYS BEEN TRUE (not paying transaction fees leads to long confirmation times, sure). None of that explains why the confirmation times are spiking NOW.
It is very simple.
Tx volume is higher than average block size. It is THAT SIMPLE.
If users are creating an average of 400 tx every 600 seconds and miners are making blocks with an average of 300 tx every 600 seconds what is going to happen to the tx backlog?
If users are creating an average of 400 tx every 600 seconds and miners are making blocks with an average of 400 tx every 600 seconds what is going to happen to the tx backlog?
If users are creating an average of 400 tx every 600 seconds and miners are making blocks with an average of 600 tx every 600 seconds what is going to happen to the tx backlog?
If it is still too complicated lets try a non bitcoin metaphor.
If you have a pool (mem pool) and you are adding 2 gallons a minute to the pool (unconfirmed txs) and at the same time have the drain open and water is draining out of the pool at 1 gallon per minute (tx being placed into blocks) will the water in the pool rise or lower? What is required to prevent the water level in the pool from rising?
I feel like we are talking past each other...
Are you saying that you think the tx volume has suddenly crossed a threshold ~4 days ago? I am not asking about why confirmation times go up and down in general, but why they have gone up a lot very recently.
(I noticed for example, that Elgius is de-prioritizing transactions that reuse addresses, this is new, and perhaps that is a cause for this)
