I know you have all been waiting in anticipation of on update.... - page 2.

buwaytress

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Quote from: Wind_FURY on December 11, 2021, 06:19:15 AM

Quote from: buwaytress on December 11, 2021, 03:21:23 AM

Simple question for me: Until the 1150 retest, which next ATH this year (!) or next would force you to redraw some lines or adjust your positioning for the mid-term? Given that you think $92k is still possible, which price is not?

A 1,150 RESTEST? DOLLARS? Call me dumbfounded. I knew it was the right decision not to read the bullshit in the OP. Didn’t sgbett and proudhon always claim “Science”? Understandable, flat-Earthers compute simple math differently from regular Earthlings.

I definitely don't think it's possible but it doesn't make me less interested to understand how an unexpected ATH (for them) would work out to their end. He thinks 1150 and 92k are both possible, so it should at least make for some wild theories, which hey, is what we're sometimes here for no?

The science of speculation's pretty special to me heh.

Wind_FURY

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Quote from: buwaytress on December 11, 2021, 03:21:23 AM

Horrors. I missed the day you posted. But it's ~~Friday~~ Saturday (I really am losing my mind) and I smelled the fear earlier in a group chat, so with some leftover sentiment I browse this thread and approve of the FUD.

Simple question for me: Until the 1150 retest, which next ATH this year (!) or next would force you to redraw some lines or adjust your positioning for the mid-term? Given that you think $92k is still possible, which price is not?

A 1,150 RESTEST? DOLLARS? Call me dumbfounded. I knew it was the right decision not to read the bullshit in the OP. Didn’t sgbett and proudhon always claim “Science”? Understandable, flat-Earthers compute simple math differently from regular Earthlings.

pooya87

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Quote from: sgbett on December 10, 2021, 10:42:54 AM

The Wright vs Core devs is likely about whether Bitcoin core has been changed in a way such that it makes old transactions invalid - in particular I am talking about ~removed scam website url~NLocktime and nSequence it could be that as a result of those changes some older coins may be inaccessible.

Nothing about locktime or sequence values changed in a way to make any existing outputs unspendable.

Quote

As part of this case, core devs may be compelled to update the bitcoin core software in order to allow access to these coins.

Unlike centralized altcoins such as bcashsv, the bitcoin protocol is not owned by anyone to be able to change it. If core devs made any change that we didn't like, they would be forking off to a shitcoin of their own the same way bcashsv forked off to a shitcoin of their own. Meanwhile bitcoin continues as is.

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I think that may have a material effect on price, because many people are invested on the premise that BTC sits outside of law.

Back in 2017 some devs were compelled to change the code. We rejected them and bitcoin continued rising while their code became an altcoin. This was repeated more than a hundred times and each time bitcoin didn't care.

P.S. My initial observation seems to have been correct, despite your account age you don't seem to have any understanding of how Bitcoin works.

buwaytress

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Horrors. I missed the day you posted. But it's ~~Friday~~ Saturday (I really am losing my mind) and I smelled the fear earlier in a group chat, so with some leftover sentiment I browse this thread and approve of the FUD.

Simple question for me: Until the 1150 retest, which next ATH this year (!) or next would force you to redraw some lines or adjust your positioning for the mid-term? Given that you think $92k is still possible, which price is not?

sgbett

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Quote from: hugeblack on December 09, 2021, 12:31:05 PM

Quote from: sgbett on December 06, 2021, 08:49:07 AM

Wright vs Bitcoin devs, what happens with Tether and what the SEC decides about whether a coin that has a raise on promise of profit and is pre-mined constitutes a security. ETH clearly, air dropped Bitcoin... maybe.

Can you explain to me how the legal debate between Wright and Bitcoin devs could affect the price of Bitcoin or have the effect of determining the end point of this cycle?
It would be logical not to repeat the same levels of 2017 and therefore it is difficult to break the peaks at 2021, but this does not mean that waiting for two months or more will be ideal.
Personally, I expect a top at $92,000 in February before we reach a 70% correction.

The Wright vs Core devs is likely about whether Bitcoin core has been changed in a way such that it makes old transactions invalid - in particular I am talking about NLocktime and nSequence it could be that as a result of those changes some older coins may be inaccessible.

As part of this case, core devs may be compelled to update the bitcoin core software in order to allow access to these coins.

If that is the case then it directly contradicts the prevailing view that code is law, and demonstrate that Bitcoin is in fact subject to the rule of law.

I think that may have a material effect on price, because many people are invested on the premise that BTC sits outside of law.

I also think it's possible this will have no effect, and I think your prediction of a $92k seems very reasonable too.

Wind_FURY

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Quote from: adaseb on December 09, 2021, 10:12:19 PM

I don’t think the legal debate between Craig Wright will have any effect on BTC price. After all with all the evidence presented, most people know he is not the real Satoshi. I think people are thinking that it’s wise to buy his BSV coin because he will dump all 1.1M BTC on the Bitcoin network which would cause the price to crash.

A bigger issue is the Mt Gox distribution which will happen in 2022 sometime. This might have an effect on price because most likely some people will take profits and sell. At least some of their coins and when the time line is released, many will sell their coins well in advance because they think price will crash.

What Craig Wright, and the Bcash SV holders might actually want to happen is for Bcash SV to surge high in market value. Then because “he is Satoshi”, he can order a Bcash SV hard fork to take all pre-2012 dormant coins under his control.

adaseb

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I don’t think the legal debate between Craig Wright will have any effect on BTC price. After all with all the evidence presented, most people know he is not the real Satoshi. I think people are thinking that it’s wise to buy his BSV coin because he will dump all 1.1M BTC on the Bitcoin network which would cause the price to crash.

A bigger issue is the Mt Gox distribution which will happen in 2022 sometime. This might have an effect on price because most likely some people will take profits and sell. At least some of their coins and when the time line is released, many will sell their coins well in advance because they think price will crash.

el kaka22

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Weird "analysis", according to this we could either reach to 80k prices, or we could reach the 800 dollar prices? I mean I am not an expert on chart reading but it literally shows that. I am guessing that bitcoin will not be reaching 800 is not really a bold claim and I can make that very easily. Sure some people could be a bit too hopeful about what is going to happen and 80k may or may not happen, that is a bit depending on some stuff and I agree with them.

However, nothing in the world will take it to 800 dollars, hell even if Tether came out and said "your money is gone, we are not giving anyone their money back" it would still not be 800 dollars, there are way too many rich people involved who would outright buy every single bitcoin they could before the price hits that level. We should start ignoring these type of charts and stop considering the worst possible situation.

philipma1957

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Quote from: hugeblack on December 09, 2021, 12:31:05 PM

Quote from: sgbett on December 06, 2021, 08:49:07 AM

Wright vs Bitcoin devs, what happens with Tether and what the SEC decides about whether a coin that has a raise on promise of profit and is pre-mined constitutes a security. ETH clearly, air dropped Bitcoin... maybe.

Can you explain to me how the legal debate between Wright and Bitcoin devs could affect the price of Bitcoin or have the effect of determining the end point of this cycle?
It would be logical not to repeat the same levels of 2017 and therefore it is difficult to break the peaks at 2021, but this does not mean that waiting for two months or more will be ideal.
Personally, I expect a top at $92,000 in February before we reach a 70% correction.

I will be sure to put in sells at 77,777.77 and 88,888.88 Grin

for now I mine and I have a $50 daily buy of BTC set for all of Dec

hugeblack

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Quote from: sgbett on December 06, 2021, 08:49:07 AM

Wright vs Bitcoin devs, what happens with Tether and what the SEC decides about whether a coin that has a raise on promise of profit and is pre-mined constitutes a security. ETH clearly, air dropped Bitcoin... maybe.

Can you explain to me how the legal debate between Wright and Bitcoin devs could affect the price of Bitcoin or have the effect of determining the end point of this cycle?
It would be logical not to repeat the same levels of 2017 and therefore it is difficult to break the peaks at 2021, but this does not mean that waiting for two months or more will be ideal.
Personally, I expect a top at $92,000 in February before we reach a 70% correction.

Wind_FURY

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sgbett, like kwukduck, might be another buy signal. Both of them FUD that the bull market has ended whenever there's a "normal 30% correction" for Bitcoin.

The surge will return, ser. Prepare for more revisions. "Science".

adaseb

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This is one of those situation where people are saying that “all gaps must fill” like with the CME futures. Basically if you do some testing you will find that most of the gaps are eventually filled. However there are some which are not.

So even if $1150 was to eventually fill, you have no idea on the time line. It might end up filling finally in 50-100 years and that won’t help you. I also assumed in 2018 when we were at $3K that $1K would be a perfect area to long because it’s a textbook technical analysis level and many others did too and it never went there. Those waiting missed the opportunity.

cryptoaddictchie

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Could be a wild guess but as statement goes. Nobody can predict the correct future. Technical helps on the possible movement but how many times we saw btc ignore these parameters? So I guess the better process is observation and cautious when doing trading. We can't avoid losses even if we wanted too but btc will always be a hyperbolic bomb that could trigger a way up or down.

darkangelosme

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True i do waiting some updates but i don't rely on that much, i much prefer on my own instinct i don't want to blame other people if i loss some of my small amount of money, that why i follow my own instinct instead of waiting for some updates.

philipma1957

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Quote from: sgbett on December 07, 2021, 01:43:35 PM

Quote from: philipma1957 on December 06, 2021, 06:36:44 PM

First off my apologies for post on another thread.

internet sucks. I realized I read your post wrong and deleted my part of the post directed to you. We then cross posted.

No worries my dude, thanks for bothering to write that, countless others would not. You are stand up fellow!

Thank you.

I do disagree with crash and burn numbers like 1150. This is looking at BTC as a speculative play.

My partners and I blend mining ⛏ as a tool to create power demand. Power demand allows larger grid tied solar arrays.

This is a true utility value.

Ie copper as a trading bullion that has an electrical use.
btc as a trading asset that has an electrical use.

I feel this makes a floor for Btc well over 1100 usd . More like 10000 to 16000 floor.

5 cent power mines a btc for about 10000 cost
8 cent power mines a btc for about 16000 cost.

So I just dont see the drop to 1100 usd.

however maybe 15k to 21k is possible
if you study mining profits in july 2020 the miners were close to break even.

so I do see us going back to those levels one day with the diff higher breakeven is like 18-22k

tertius993

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But $1150 is not the prior ATH it is the one before that.

What relevance does the market behaviour in 2015/16 have to the market today?

Seems like this is trying to fit your wishful thinking to some prior data points and using those to justify the assertion.

sgbett

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Quote from: philipma1957 on December 06, 2021, 06:36:44 PM

First off my apologies for post on another thread.

internet sucks. I realized I read your post wrong and deleted my part of the post directed to you. We then cross posted.

No worries my dude, thanks for bothering to write that, countless others would not. You are stand up fellow!

Tytanowy Janusz

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So you are saying that nothing matters ... all that matters is 1 pattern that repeated ... twice and this makes it so strong that it has to repeat forever no matter what. 1000 $ BTC? Thats around $15B marketcap. Its not 2017 anymore. Adoption is at completle different stage. BTC will never drop to 1000$ again because thats around $15B evaluation. 1 whale will buy whole supply much earlier.

davis196

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Great FUD analysis,OP.Keep it up with the FUD. Grin

Yeah,Tether is BS.It's a fractional reserve banking scheme.I couldn't care less about Tether.It's convenient for the crypto traders,but I have always though that the crypto industry will be fine without stablecoins.
However,thinking that Tether is the one and only reason which pumped the Bitcoin price from 1K to 68K USD is kinda delusional.
Aren't you ignoring all the BTC adoption,which happened during the last 4-5 years.
Is Tether the only factor that pumped the BTC price more than 50 times?
I wonder how the Bitcoin price was pumped from a few dollars to more than 1K USD,before Tether was a thing?

pooya87

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Quote from: sgbett on December 06, 2021, 08:49:07 AM

BTC *will* retest ~1150

I don't know what you think of bitcoin but a 98% crash is not just unprecedented but it is impossible. More than that, just an unprecedented event is not something you can predict!

Quote from: sgbett on December 06, 2021, 08:49:07 AM

depends on what unfolds in Florida, COPA, Wright vs Bitcoin devs, what happens with Tether and what the SEC decides about whether a coin that has a raise on promise of profit and is pre-mined constitutes a security. ETH clearly, air dropped Bitcoin... maybe.

No offense but your reasons are nonsense too. Take the case with the scammer CSW, we already had the court vote in his favor back in 2019 in a copyright case and bitcoin market didn't care. Again another court ruled in his favor regarding bitcoin paper this year and bitcoin market didn't care then either. Another vote about his supposed "fortune" when we already know most of the owners of the addresses he claimed to own have come forward calling out his bullshit will also not affect the market.
All the other cases have been debunked multiple times already too.

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the overwhelming stench of alleged Tether fraud is now mainstream news.

Wrong. You just have been living under a rock. For many years now the mainstream media has also been spreading their nonsense about a (non-existing) link between Tether and bitcoin then talk about Bitfinex fraudulent activities. The FUD hasn't been effective to this day and nothing about it has changed either.
Here are some nonsense from 2018 for example:
https://www.cnbc.com/2018/06/13/much-of-bitcoins-2017-boom-was-market-manipulation-researcher-says.html
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2018-11-20/bitcoin-rigging-criminal-probe-is-said-to-focus-on-tie-to-tether
https://www.nytimes.com/2018/01/31/technology/bitfinex-bitcoin-price.html

Topic: I know you have all been waiting in anticipation of on update.... - page 2. (Read 481 times)