Topic: I love these guys we gotta re visit this in 2014, they even have graphs - page 2. (Read 3900 times)
December 29, 2013, 11:52:29 AM
The price is still - just like the other hundred times - driven by supply and demand. If the price drops that low it means the demand is almost entirely gone. There will be reasons for this.
December 29, 2013, 11:44:49 AM
In every other scenario bitcoin will survive.
Not in the useable form, no. Once businesses switch to some other currency and most funds flow out of bitcoin, it is not raising again. Sure some people will have it running for a while, but it is not coming back from $10, not anymore. That would mean most investors and businesses completely lost faith and cashed out. After that, only a matter of time until the slowpokes of the world catch the drift.
What are you saying that if it crashes to $10 it will become worthless eventually? Doesn't really make sense to me unless the reason for the crash is some fundamental problem with the software.
At $10 that is still over 100,000,000 USD worth the economy has to work with, money velocity has to be higher of course and it should be.
December 29, 2013, 11:08:30 AM
In every other scenario bitcoin will survive.
Not in the useable form, no. Once businesses switch to some other currency and most funds flow out of bitcoin, it is not raising again. Sure some people will have it running for a while, but it is not coming back from $10, not anymore. That would mean most investors and businesses completely lost faith and cashed out. After that, only a matter of time until the slowpokes of the world catch the drift.
December 29, 2013, 10:12:07 AM
I want some 10$ Bitcoins.
Why would you want $10 BTC? If BTC goes $10 then it will kill bitcoin.
I'm waiting for "The chart" since this analysis is based on it
If it goes to XXX it won't kill bitcoin. The only 'price' which can kill it (in a sense that nobody would bother to store the blockchain) is if it were completely worthless, zero, 0 nada.
In every other scenario bitcoin will survive.
December 29, 2013, 08:51:02 AM
The article repeats some good points, well known by the bears and dismissed by the bulls, but I don't understand how he
came up with 10$ / coin in 2014. To get that low on Gox would require a bid sum of some 3M$ and 200k coins on the ask sum.
I find it very unlikely for the bid sum on Gox to drop (and persist) in 2014 under 10M$ and the ask sum to rise above 100k coins.
I think he just drew some lines on a chart. came up with 10$ / coin in 2014. To get that low on Gox would require a bid sum of some 3M$ and 200k coins on the ask sum.
I find it very unlikely for the bid sum on Gox to drop (and persist) in 2014 under 10M$ and the ask sum to rise above 100k coins.
December 29, 2013, 08:26:08 AM
BEHOLD! Dogma!
If you can get around the many typo's, this is quite interesting. I myself don't really hold with Austrian econ and all that stuff, but at the same time what this guy is saying is ridiculous......this won't work even though it is more efficient, and can't work because it's outside his only known model.
Finance is a funny beast, I had a friend working in the BOE, they still have fuddy duddys with smoking parlours, wooden paneled rooms and the like. Monetary systems have largely been free from innovation for stability and also because govt's are not good at innovation. BTC isn't just an innovation in virtual currency, it's an innovation in a stagnant area of financial tech that's been untouched for almost 100 years. When you consider how most treasuries and based on a model that that not changed, that still causes problems in inflation/deflation and wealth distribution, you'll quickly realise how backward it all is......granted it's for a reason...ie you don't want to destabilise currency as it's big trouble....but that don't excuse it being a piss poor form of technology.
Quote
Since inception, Bitcoin has had a flawed DNA. It was dreamed up in a virtual world -- by computer geeks -- but was to be applied in the real world. Bitcoin is steep in Libertarian and anti-Fed dogma but weak in understanding of how global economics, central banking policies and financial markets function. The lifeblood of the global capital markets is money – greenbacks -- transactional currency that facilitates commerce. Virtual currency can create value and efficiency but it needs to be linked to fiscal and monetary policy. To assume currency can be computer generated, run in a decentralized manner and outside of the central banking system and controls is farcical and economically dangerous.
If you can get around the many typo's, this is quite interesting. I myself don't really hold with Austrian econ and all that stuff, but at the same time what this guy is saying is ridiculous......this won't work even though it is more efficient, and can't work because it's outside his only known model.
Finance is a funny beast, I had a friend working in the BOE, they still have fuddy duddys with smoking parlours, wooden paneled rooms and the like. Monetary systems have largely been free from innovation for stability and also because govt's are not good at innovation. BTC isn't just an innovation in virtual currency, it's an innovation in a stagnant area of financial tech that's been untouched for almost 100 years. When you consider how most treasuries and based on a model that that not changed, that still causes problems in inflation/deflation and wealth distribution, you'll quickly realise how backward it all is......granted it's for a reason...ie you don't want to destabilise currency as it's big trouble....but that don't excuse it being a piss poor form of technology.
December 29, 2013, 08:14:23 AM
The author is predicting a 99.2% decline by July. Good luck with that. Its not gonna happen. Keep in mind, if the price drops to $10.00 even and rallies from there, then I am right and he is wrong.
December 29, 2013, 07:45:22 AM
http://www.businessinsider.com/williams-bitcoin-meltdown-10-2013-12?IR=T#ixzz2np1O4HvS
I *hope* he is right as my dream of single digit cheap coins will come true
I *hope* he is right as my dream of single digit cheap coins will come true
yeah i read that, his reasoning is that it's just a tulip mania completely ignoring the fundamentals and infrastructure developments behind bitcoin.
The only way i see single digit bitcoins is some sort of worldwide government ban, mainly the United States, Or Bitcoin hacked permanently (v unlikely) rendering it useless
Worst case scenario is IMO is $250 Bitcoin (april all time high) and won't stay long there.
December 29, 2013, 07:42:16 AM
The article repeats some good points, well known by the bears and dismissed by the bulls, but I don't understand how he
came up with 10$ / coin in 2014. To get that low on Gox would require a bid sum of some 3M$ and 200k coins on the ask sum.
I find it very unlikely for the bid sum on Gox to drop (and persist) in 2014 under 10M$ and the ask sum to rise above 100k coins.
came up with 10$ / coin in 2014. To get that low on Gox would require a bid sum of some 3M$ and 200k coins on the ask sum.
I find it very unlikely for the bid sum on Gox to drop (and persist) in 2014 under 10M$ and the ask sum to rise above 100k coins.
December 29, 2013, 07:35:02 AM
I want some 10$ Bitcoins.
Why would you want $10 BTC? If BTC goes $10 then it will kill bitcoin.
I'm waiting for "The chart" since this analysis is based on it
December 29, 2013, 07:22:27 AM
How about this:
We crowd fund a bet with him that 2014 will close over 1k BTCUSD. If he loses he has to pay 10 BTC. If we lose we have to pay 10k USD.
Let's see if he has the balls to put his money where his mouth is.
We crowd fund a bet with him that 2014 will close over 1k BTCUSD. If he loses he has to pay 10 BTC. If we lose we have to pay 10k USD.
Let's see if he has the balls to put his money where his mouth is.
Yeah, good idea.
Since 10 BTC is only 100$ is his prediction is right.
December 29, 2013, 07:14:39 AM
I want some 10$ Bitcoins.
December 29, 2013, 07:05:52 AM
These people won't have any Bitcoins remember? Just worthless paper 
December 29, 2013, 07:04:38 AM
How about this:
We crowd fund a bet with him that 2014 will close over 1k BTCUSD. If he loses he has to pay 10 BTC. If we lose we have to pay 10k USD.
Let's see if he has the balls to put his money where his mouth is.
We crowd fund a bet with him that 2014 will close over 1k BTCUSD. If he loses he has to pay 10 BTC. If we lose we have to pay 10k USD.
Let's see if he has the balls to put his money where his mouth is.
December 29, 2013, 06:59:29 AM
There's a difference between actually predicting and speculating on a price and then just putting down what you want it to be, they've completely ignored the reverse head and shoulders that's formed right in front of their eyes and the amount of resistance that is showing on the candlesticks, the halfwits.
December 29, 2013, 06:16:30 AM
This is why they call it SPECULATION! 
No it's not. There are two definitions, this forum is about the second, i.e. "investment in stocks, property, or other ventures in the hope of gain but with the risk of loss.". Not the crazy ass theories, or "the forming of a theory or conjecture without firm evidence".
Bitcoin is all about speculation, you have these guys predicting $10, and others predicting different values, some say it will sky rocket, others say it will fall flat, have your pick it is speculation.
December 29, 2013, 06:14:37 AM
This is why they call it SPECULATION!
No it's not. There are two definitions, this forum is about the second, i.e. "investment in stocks, property, or other ventures in the hope of gain but with the risk of loss.". Not the crazy ass theories, or "the forming of a theory or conjecture without firm evidence".
December 29, 2013, 06:14:13 AM
$10? lol...im sure we wont get there with all of the fiat of newly interested parties coming into bitcoin.
December 29, 2013, 06:09:40 AM
Guess we'l have to wait till 2014 and see.
December 29, 2013, 06:08:44 AM
This is why they call it SPECULATION!
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