I made a mistake shorting BTC at 17k - page 4.

Stalker22

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Quote from: Rikafip on October 26, 2022, 10:25:59 AM

Quote from: Haunebu on October 26, 2022, 08:27:57 AM

Great day for HODLERS like me. I knew BTC would go back above $20K at some point which is why I HODLED my stash successfully until today and sold it happily. Great TX times and fees as usual.

Hah, you are not much of a hodler if you sold your bitcoin so easily and so far away from all time high, (to be more precise, bitcoin is down ~69% from ATH), unless of course you needed money urgently). I do hope that you plan to rebuy bitcoin if/when it reaches lower price but imho you are playing a dangerous game.

Yeah, it is been a wild ride in the past 10 months! We had some ups, some downs and more rumours flying around that I can count. Everyone has an opinion about Bitcoin price, but none of them is worth a shit. Personally, I would never sell at these levels unless I need the money badly. I would rather sit on my Bitcoins for at least another year or two.

I am not a financial adviser, nor do I profess to be one. This is just my opinion based on what I have seen in the past years. It has recovered from worse than this in the past and it will do so again. It is just a matter of time until we see another bull run like the one in 2021. So, if you are still holding your coins, do not sell at these levels without any real reason to do so!

Rikafip

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Quote from: Haunebu on October 26, 2022, 08:27:57 AM

Great day for HODLERS like me. I knew BTC would go back above $20K at some point which is why I HODLED my stash successfully until today and sold it happily. Great TX times and fees as usual.

Hah, you are not much of a hodler if you sold your bitcoin so easily and so far away from all time high, (to be more precise, bitcoin is down ~69% from ATH), unless of course you needed money urgently). I do hope that you plan to rebuy bitcoin if/when it reaches lower price but imho you are playing a dangerous game.

omone1

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The human nature in you played out. I don't listen to government on their economic data in respect to BTC long term movement. 2020 was the way when one expect BTC not to go go ballistic because of the Covid-19. It went to a new ATH same way even when stocks were dying and companies were seeking for a bailout. Why hold BTC through 2020 and short now like a day trader? You didn't do well friend.

Haunebu

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Great day for HODLERS like me. I knew BTC would go back above $20K at some point which is why I HODLED my stash successfully until today and sold it happily. Great TX times and fees as usual.

BTC will definitely sink below $18K at some point in the future op, but it will bounce back later on as it always has which is one of the primary reasons why I am a fan of this cryptocurrency.

m2017

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Quote from: necudo on October 25, 2022, 02:49:02 AM

I've been holding BTC since 2020. 2 weeks ago when inflation data came out saying core CPI went up a lot i sold my BTC at 18,000$.At first it seemed i made right choice since stocks went almost -3% premarket and i thought we're gonna have final capitulation in both stocks and BTC, that it will go down to 13-15k.

Well when market opened everything just went up, ended like almost +3% at the end of the day. It was the perfect explanation why you shouldn't time the market. I made a huge mistake and i really refuse to buy BTC at now higher price.
It really seems BTC bottomed at 17.5k and stocks(SP 500) at 3480.

Now market is pumping like crazy,its obvious we won't go back to 18k or below.
Good luck to all, i hope you're smarter than me

Unfortunately, no one is immune from mistakes and our expectations sometimes diverge from the real state of affairs. You should always take into account the risk that your decision is wrong because you didn't take into account some facts and because of this made the wrong decision. You need to learn from mistakes and try not to repeat them. I hope that the unpleasant incident with OP will be a reminder both for him and for the readers of this thread. Trying to outsmart the market is fraught with unpleasant surprises and is much more comfortable to play in the long run.

kryptqnick

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I wonder if the op lost money from selling at $18k. Since the price was below or around $10k for most of 2020, I'm guessing that it wasn't actually a loss, but instead was at a small profit. In that case, why not buy just now, especially if the op believes it's the start of the bull market? The price is still more than 3x below the previous ATH, and when the market recovers, it sets a new ATH point.
I think the price might still fall lower for Bitcoin, and that this small increase might be a very temporary thing. But $20k isn't a bad buying point, IMO. I agree that selling at $18k was a bit premature, but it wasn't anything that can't be fixed.

DanWalker

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Quote from: Ahli38 on October 26, 2022, 03:59:36 AM

sometimes the decisions we make can be wrong. whether it's because our mental is affected or because there are other reasons. but the pump that is happening now does not mean we are entering a bullrun market and this increase is still in accordance with technical and fundamental analysis. and if we continue the analysis then if you are patient it looks like we will be able to buy BTC again from prices below $ 20k. so no need to rush in buying back. because most likely the actual bear market is still not over. and the increase that occurred yesterday until today is common before the next decline.
so whoever is in the mode of accumulating bitcoin I hope you stay calm and do according to the analysis. avoid FOMO.

but i guess or hope the next drop BTC won't break $17k. because we have seen so strong the support area at $18k-$20k. so if you already sell at a lower price. then we can start to re-accumulate every decline that occurs. and it's bound to happen. but for a deeper drop then I don't think it will happen anytime soon. but small declines are bound to happen.

If you say we have a very strong support at 18k-20k it means bitcoin will be hard to fall further and bitcoin is currently at 20.5k. This is considered a price that is not too high compared to the resistance level, so buying from now is not too bad because there is not too much difference.

In the current situation, there is no basis to believe that bitcoin will rise sharply from here and fall is what everyone is anticipating. But no one dares to confirm anything yet, so don't hesitate to use DCA to not miss any opportunity whether the market goes up or the market drops further.

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Quote from: necudo on October 25, 2022, 02:49:02 AM

~
Now market is pumping like crazy,its obvious we won't go back to 18k or below.
Good luck to all, i hope you're smarter than me

Nothing to worry about as the whole world is still suffering from high inflation, there is a chance that it might go down in the next few days to weeks.

Market is pumping like crazy? You're a newbie I guess that's why you're a bit exaggerated. Right now, the market is still moving sideways so if you sold at $18,000, just wait for it to go at that price again. There is a high chance that it will go to that price again because right now, markets are still on the bear market and that includes the crypto market.

I already forgot that phrase "timing the market" because it isn't working for me at all. I tried it twice already and didn't work for me that's why I focused on Dollar-Cost Averaging. You might want to do it as well. Right now, the market is pumping but I don't think that it is sustainable, and I expect a reversal and it will return to below $20,000 next week probably.

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Quote from: necudo on October 25, 2022, 02:49:02 AM

I've been holding BTC since 2020. 2 weeks ago when inflation data came out saying core CPI went up a lot i sold my BTC at 18,000$.At first it seemed i made right choice since stocks went almost -3% premarket and i thought we're gonna have final capitulation in both stocks and BTC, that it will go down to 13-15k.

Well when market opened everything just went up, ended like almost +3% at the end of the day. It was the perfect explanation why you shouldn't time the market. I made a huge mistake and i really refuse to buy BTC at now higher price.
It really seems BTC bottomed at 17.5k and stocks(SP 500) at 3480.

Now market is pumping like crazy,its obvious we won't go back to 18k or below.
Good luck to all, i hope you're smarter than me

You’re not alone. Just like you, there’s a lot actually who is also like you. I am not saying it’s a bad decision, but rather I call it “wrong timing”. I actually had regrets of selling my USDT early after a long consolidation of BTC somewhere between $12k to $14k. Eventually it shoot up to $20k, $30k and up to $68k respectively when Elon Musk started the great hype!

The reason I call it “wrong timing” is because of the crypto market being unpredictable in going up or down without warning.

UserU

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20K barrier broken, lots of those short sellers must have been liquidated.

Franctoshi

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This is just like Immediately concluding that the bottom is already in , what if this rally is meant to trick or trap more bulls in to think we've bottomed out? , because the overall trend is still downwards and nothing has changed yet.

Therefore , If you shorted Bitcoin at $17k thinking the price was gonna go further down and reverse is the case, 20k is not very far away from 17k to get in right back because we still have more way up to go than we do have to the down side, if eventually we've bottomed out.

Or divide your investment capital into 2-3 or more buy now and wait until Bitcoin has taken a clear direction up or down to actually get in back fully.

ethereumhunter

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Quote from: GxSTxV on October 26, 2022, 03:48:34 AM

Well you really did a mistake selling on dip, i really understand How hard when market goes so down and fear starts especially for large amounts all traders and holders do mistakes and also get emotional while market is down. But don’t miss the train now and do another mistake. Bitcoin now is really pumping and as you said we will not see that cheap price again at least not soon
So forget about that and do not feel guilty about it move on and catch this train, you will surely recover you losses

I think many of us make that mistake, myself included because of concerns that the market will decline again so that we will experience bigger losses. And maybe that's the way to avoid more losses but if it's bitcoin, maybe we don't need to sell it when the market is down but we can buy more while holding on to the bitcoins we already have. Thus, we can expect to get bigger profits if the market goes up high again. And in the future, the opportunity to increase the price of bitcoin is still wide open and although we don't know how high the price of bitcoin can increase, we will get big profits later.

_act_

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Quote from: NeuroticFish on October 26, 2022, 04:34:50 AM

I don't say it will or it won't. I will say that I can tell "it won't" only after the price gets much higher.
The current move may be a bull trap or may be the end of the bear market. While I hope for the second, the current bear market gave me plenty of bad surprises, so I won't be too optimistic.

Bitcoin was at certain low price like $3900 before. Bitcoin increased to $19600 in December 2017, but it was the other way in 2018, it decreases below $3900. It increased but again decreased below $3900 in 2019. Bitcoin halved in 2020, but two months before halving,, bitcoin decreased below $3900 again. But what about now? Can bitcoin decreased below $3800? No. That is what you are saying, you are right. But I think Lucius is thinking about what I said, that even it is possible $19000 may still be broken again some times before 2024 halving, but a time is coming that the $19000 will become $3900 of the past, in a way bitcoin can not fall below $19000 anymore.

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Quote from: Lucius on October 26, 2022, 04:29:59 AM

Quote from: NeuroticFish on October 26, 2022, 03:36:12 AM

We will know for sure that 19k is no longer possible only after the price gets much higher.

19k is something that will be broken many more times, regardless of the fact that from time to time (like now) the market prepares a small trap and tries to convince the naive that it's time for a new bull run. The biggest mistake that the OP and others have is that he is completely lost in time, and that's why he loses money. However, he doesn't have to be completely disappointed, because his loss is someone else's gain.

I don't say it will or it won't. I will say that I can tell "it won't" only after the price gets much higher.
The current move may be a bull trap or may be the end of the bear market. While I hope for the second, the current bear market gave me plenty of bad surprises, so I won't be too optimistic.

Lucius

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Quote from: necudo on October 26, 2022, 03:20:54 AM

Economy is strong.

I don't know in which universe you live, but apparently in a parallel one where things happen a little differently than where the rest of us live. We are in the midst of one of the biggest economic crises in the last 40 to 50 years, and on the brink of the biggest military conflict since the end of World War II.

Quote from: NeuroticFish on October 26, 2022, 03:36:12 AM

We will know for sure that 19k is no longer possible only after the price gets much higher.

19k is something that will be broken many more times, regardless of the fact that from time to time (like now) the market prepares a small trap and tries to convince the naive that it's time for a new bull run. The biggest mistake that the OP and others have is that he is completely lost in time, and that's why he loses money. However, he doesn't have to be completely disappointed, because his loss is someone else's gain.

Ahli38

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sometimes the decisions we make can be wrong. whether it's because our mental is affected or because there are other reasons. but the pump that is happening now does not mean we are entering a bullrun market and this increase is still in accordance with technical and fundamental analysis. and if we continue the analysis then if you are patient it looks like we will be able to buy BTC again from prices below $ 20k. so no need to rush in buying back. because most likely the actual bear market is still not over. and the increase that occurred yesterday until today is common before the next decline.
so whoever is in the mode of accumulating bitcoin I hope you stay calm and do according to the analysis. avoid FOMO.

but i guess or hope the next drop BTC won't break $17k. because we have seen so strong the support area at $18k-$20k. so if you already sell at a lower price. then we can start to re-accumulate every decline that occurs. and it's bound to happen. but for a deeper drop then I don't think it will happen anytime soon. but small declines are bound to happen.

GxSTxV

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Well you really did a mistake selling on dip, i really understand How hard when market goes so down and fear starts especially for large amounts all traders and holders do mistakes and also get emotional while market is down. But don’t miss the train now and do another mistake. Bitcoin now is really pumping and as you said we will not see that cheap price again at least not soon
So forget about that and do not feel guilty about it move on and catch this train, you will surely recover you losses

_act_

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Quote from: OgNasty on October 26, 2022, 12:12:47 AM

It could still go lower if you could stay solvent long enough. It seems like you’re viewing things in too short of a period. Bitcoin is down more than 2/3s since the all time high. That’s not when you want to short. The best bears are the ones shorting as we come off all time highs. The risk reward points to you wanting to be long here. When people are screaming Lambo and you hear stories of peopling making millions in a day, that’s when you want to start going short.

Yes. Some people will buy or long when the price of bitcoin has reached a significant bull run and people reading to selling, just like some people complained of losing after buying at $65000 during all-time-high. This are the kind of people we can still advice to never sell their coins because bitcoin is going to that price again, it can take years but it would happen. If someone short at $17000, it would be surprising if bitcoin never fall below that price again. The best to do now is to buy, not by using future trading for it, but a wallet. To short bitcoin below $20000 is not good as can lead to loss.

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Quote from: necudo on October 26, 2022, 03:20:54 AM

To be honest i dont think it will dump again below 19k.BTC was oversold plus because of high inflation the value/price of btc probably is 20% higher than before which would mean 17k bottom is probably 13-14k preinflation. The FED pivot is coming, Russia-Ukraine war is stagnating, crude oil went down, 10year treasure went down, Q3 GDP growth 2.9%. Economy is strong. I think i actually sold at bottom🤣But my stupid ass really deserved this, only blaming myself..

We will know for sure that 19k is no longer possible only after the price gets much higher.
But on paper, yes, things start looking good (although I disagree with the "economy is strong" part), also it kinda matches the 4-year cycle movements.

Whether you deserve this or not... it's always debatable. I hope you've bough back at least some of the loses.

PS. Keep in mind that HODLing tends to be more fruitful and less risky than trading.

necudo

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Quote from: Sanitough on October 25, 2022, 03:58:16 PM

Quote from: BlackHatCoiner on October 25, 2022, 06:14:58 AM

If you don't want to look on this thread a few years later, and laugh for considering $20k expensive, I recommend you buy back. Selling bitcoin at $17k with $20k as current market value doesn't seem a "huge mistake". However, if the price doubles, triples etc., you're about to regret it.

Also, rainbows make sense until they're broken, same as with S2F.

Well, I don’t see it a huge mistake too because for me, it’s like a common mistake everyone is doing. You just have to be patient to wait for another dump price and it will be very possible this time since we are still in a bearish market. Bitcoin may seen pumping at the moment, but believe me it will always fall back again at any certain price. That’s the time you’ll decide if it will be a good price to buy or just wait for another dump price.

To be honest i dont think it will dump again below 19k.BTC was oversold plus because of high inflation the value/price of btc probably is 20% higher than before which would mean 17k bottom is probably 13-14k preinflation. The FED pivot is coming, Russia-Ukraine war is stagnating, crude oil went down, 10year treasure went down, Q3 GDP growth 2.9%. Economy is strong. I think i actually sold at bottom🤣But my stupid ass really deserved this, only blaming myself..

Topic: I made a mistake shorting BTC at 17k - page 4. (Read 1337 times)