I certainly hope not! My BFL stuff isn't here yet... 
I may have to go pre-order a Monarch!
Topic: I Predict Difficulty Will Be Over 100 Million by Summer 2013 (Read 12469 times)
I certainly hope not! My BFL stuff isn't here yet... I may have to go pre-order a Monarch!
I just saw 95.2 million.
Difficulty just hit 65.8M about 3 minutes ago!! 
well, you really weren't too wrong.
but i guess you were also thinking that BFL and the others would ship on time, that would have made the difficulty rise!
but i guess you were also thinking that BFL and the others would ship on time, that would have made the difficulty rise!
This is mostly for my own amusement. Bump this to tell me how wrong or right I was when summer arrives 
not too far. we still have a month to the end of the summer
Wow, how wrong you were.
The discussion should be very simple since this is what the OP said in his first post:
Summer has arrived and we're at 21.3M difficulty. OP was wrong, end of discussion.
This is mostly for my own amusement. Bump this to tell me how wrong or right I was when summer arrives
Summer has arrived and we're at 21.3M difficulty. OP was wrong, end of discussion.
So read his statement like this "I predict difficulty will be over 100 million during the course of summer 2013"
or like this "I predict difficulty will be over 100 million not later than summer 2013".
To me that seems like summer counts. /shrug
or like this "I predict difficulty will be over 100 million not later than summer 2013".
To me that seems like summer counts. /shrug
So if I say "I'll be at work by 8am", I really mean "between 8am and 8:59:59am"?
8am is a specific point in time. 8:01am is different than 8am. If you said you will be back at work by mid-afternoon, does that mean precisely 3pm? Or does it mean a range of time around 3pm?
I see what you're saying.
So if I switch it up to " I'll have the project done by Friday ", what does that mean to you? To me (and my employers are least), it means that by Friday morning when I arrive everything is done so we can go over it ..not 11:59pm that Friday night.
Anyway, I don't even know why we're arguing this haha ..difficulty isn't going to get past 100m by the end of September.
Good example of using a day of the week to specify a range of time. Substituting in the two most relevant definitions of "by" we get:
"I'll have the project done not later than Friday."
"I'll have the project done during the course of Friday."
What does "not later than Friday mean"? To me, later than Friday means sometime that is not Friday, which would be Saturday.
Also you could say "I'll have the project done not later than 2-5pm". You are specifying a window of time during which the project will complete.
It is just an interesting discussion to me because I have seen so many bets hinge on imprecise wording.
It would be unlikely that difficulty will hit 100M by Sept 21st, but kind of cool that the OP called it back in Sept 2012.
Let's all just agree that K9 is wrong. lol
I do think it could hit 70M easily by SEP because if it keeps going up 25% every 2 weeks then do the math...
7/15 - ~25
8/1 - 31
8/15 - 47
8/30 - 70
BFL is starting to gear-up the faster units shipping and another Avalon batch coming, and the Block Eruptors...
Another pet peeve: If it's early in the week, I hate it when people say "next Friday" when they actually mean "this Firday"
or even "Friday". Ugh.
I do think it could hit 70M easily by SEP because if it keeps going up 25% every 2 weeks then do the math...
7/15 - ~25
8/1 - 31
8/15 - 47
8/30 - 70
BFL is starting to gear-up the faster units shipping and another Avalon batch coming, and the Block Eruptors...
Another pet peeve: If it's early in the week, I hate it when people say "next Friday" when they actually mean "this Firday"
or even "Friday". Ugh.
It's not going up 25% every 2 weeks, especially not now the price of BTC is going down. Last difficulty increase was only 10%, and the next jump is estimated to be about the same or a bit lower even. Now there will be bigger jumps in the near future as larger batches of ASICs arrive but a constant increase of 25% is not realistic. 35M difficulty by September would be my estimate, but it could be lower if the price of BTC continues to drop.
Let's all just agree that K9 is wrong. lol
I do think it could hit 70M easily by SEP because if it keeps going up 25% every 2 weeks then do the math...
7/15 - ~25
8/1 - 31
8/15 - 47
8/30 - 70
BFL is starting to gear-up the faster units shipping and another Avalon batch coming, and the Block Eruptors...
Another pet peeve: If it's early in the week, I hate it when people say "next Friday" when they actually mean "this Firday"
or even "Friday". Ugh.
I do think it could hit 70M easily by SEP because if it keeps going up 25% every 2 weeks then do the math...
7/15 - ~25
8/1 - 31
8/15 - 47
8/30 - 70
BFL is starting to gear-up the faster units shipping and another Avalon batch coming, and the Block Eruptors...
Another pet peeve: If it's early in the week, I hate it when people say "next Friday" when they actually mean "this Firday"
or even "Friday". Ugh.
So read his statement like this "I predict difficulty will be over 100 million during the course of summer 2013"
or like this "I predict difficulty will be over 100 million not later than summer 2013".
To me that seems like summer counts. /shrug
or like this "I predict difficulty will be over 100 million not later than summer 2013".
To me that seems like summer counts. /shrug
So if I say "I'll be at work by 8am", I really mean "between 8am and 8:59:59am"?
8am is a specific point in time. 8:01am is different than 8am. If you said you will be back at work by mid-afternoon, does that mean precisely 3pm? Or does it mean a range of time around 3pm?
I see what you're saying.
So if I switch it up to " I'll have the project done by Friday ", what does that mean to you? To me (and my employers are least), it means that by Friday morning when I arrive everything is done so we can go over it ..not 11:59pm that Friday night.
Anyway, I don't even know why we're arguing this haha ..difficulty isn't going to get past 100m by the end of September.
This is mostly for my own amusement. Bump this to tell me how wrong or right I was when summer arrives
summer arrives. Your hit was 5 times to big
Well, he still has two more months. The term Summer 2013 is not a point in time but a range in time, from June 21st to September 21st.
He could still make it, but it is gonna be rough.
Great thread bump though
He said when "Summer arrives" i.e. June 21st-22nd. So prediction was def off.
He said to bump the thread when summer arrives. His prediction was "I Predict Difficulty Will Be Over 100 Million by Summer 2013".
That actually means before the beginning of Summer, or to put it another way, by the end of Spring.
You only read the first half of the thread, didn't you.
This is mostly for my own amusement. Bump this to tell me how wrong or right I was when summer arrives
summer arrives. Your hit was 5 times to big
Well, he still has two more months. The term Summer 2013 is not a point in time but a range in time, from June 21st to September 21st.
He could still make it, but it is gonna be rough.
Great thread bump though
He said when "Summer arrives" i.e. June 21st-22nd. So prediction was def off.
He said to bump the thread when summer arrives. His prediction was "I Predict Difficulty Will Be Over 100 Million by Summer 2013".
That actually means before the beginning of Summer, or to put it another way, by the end of Spring.
So read his statement like this "I predict difficulty will be over 100 million during the course of summer 2013"
or like this "I predict difficulty will be over 100 million not later than summer 2013".
To me that seems like summer counts. /shrug
or like this "I predict difficulty will be over 100 million not later than summer 2013".
To me that seems like summer counts. /shrug
So if I say "I'll be at work by 8am", I really mean "between 8am and 8:59:59am"?
8am is a specific point in time. 8:01am is different than 8am. If you said you will be back at work by mid-afternoon, does that mean precisely 3pm? Or does it mean a range of time around 3pm?
So read his statement like this "I predict difficulty will be over 100 million during the course of summer 2013"
or like this "I predict difficulty will be over 100 million not later than summer 2013".
To me that seems like summer counts. /shrug
or like this "I predict difficulty will be over 100 million not later than summer 2013".
To me that seems like summer counts. /shrug
So if I say "I'll be at work by 8am", I really mean "between 8am and 8:59:59am"?
In other words to see if he was correct. Someone help me out here... lol
I think we are hung up on the legal definition vs the colloquial definition.
'by" can mean one of the following:
1: in proximity to : near
2a : through or through the medium of : via
2b : in the direction of : toward
2c : into the vicinity of and beyond : past
3a : during the course of
3b : not later than
4a : through the agency or instrumentality of
4b : born or begot of
4c : sired or borne by
5: with the witness or sanction of
6a : in conformity with
6b : according to
7a : on behalf of
7b : with respect to
8a : in or to the amount or extent of
8b chiefly Scottish : in comparison with : beside
I think this usage would be definition 3b or possibly 3a.
So read his statement like this "I predict difficulty will be over 100 million during the course of summer 2013"
or like this "I predict difficulty will be over 100 million not later than summer 2013".
To me that seems like summer counts. /shrug
In other words to see if he was correct. Someone help me out here... lol
This is mostly for my own amusement. Bump this to tell me how wrong or right I was when summer arrives
summer arrives. Your hit was 5 times to big
Well, he still has two more months. The term Summer 2013 is not a point in time but a range in time, from June 21st to September 21st.
He could still make it, but it is gonna be rough.
Great thread bump though
He said when "Summer arrives" i.e. June 21st-22nd. So prediction was def off.
He said to bump the thread when summer arrives. His prediction was "I Predict Difficulty Will Be Over 100 Million by Summer 2013".
This is mostly for my own amusement. Bump this to tell me how wrong or right I was when summer arrives
summer arrives. Your hit was 5 times to big
Well, he still has two more months. The term Summer 2013 is not a point in time but a range in time, from June 21st to September 21st.
He could still make it, but it is gonna be rough.
Great thread bump though
He said when "Summer arrives" i.e. June 21st-22nd. So prediction was def off.
But OBSI has run with the money of his investors
This is mostly for my own amusement. Bump this to tell me how wrong or right I was when summer arrives
summer arrives. Your hit was 5 times to big
Well, he still has two more months. The term Summer 2013 is not a point in time but a range in time, from June 21st to September 21st.
He could still make it, but it is gonna be rough.
Great thread bump though
This is mostly for my own amusement. Bump this to tell me how wrong or right I was when summer arrives
summer arrives. Your hit was 5 times to big
hey send me a prv msg if bfl pays in btc not promised imaginary asics in the future like u geting paid in
send me link i troll for them 2
send me link i troll for them 2
What?
Relax, he's just trolling the shit out of the mining speculation subforum with terrible grammar and zero logic. I ignored him when he hit 13 posts (a new record for any newbie, by the way).
wtf is a troll? anyway
i dont get it
gypsy corbs talking sheat or what?
dont make use wiki now
hey send me a prv msg if bfl pays in btc not promised imaginary asics in the future like u geting paid in
send me link i troll for them 2
send me link i troll for them 2
What?
Relax, he's just trolling the shit out of the mining speculation subforum with terrible grammar and zero logic. I ignored him when he hit 13 posts (a new record for any newbie, by the way).
if my memory is not mistake mrteal ur a bfl fan boy
proof number 1
and number 2
bfl said to ahve 75k chips ordered witch then will nto deliver anytime soon cristma best case scenario
with all other alraedy shipping like
avalon
primeasic
and rest
we have 1000th
and u know it
proof number 1
and number 2
bfl said to ahve 75k chips ordered witch then will nto deliver anytime soon cristma best case scenario
with all other alraedy shipping like
avalon
primeasic
and rest
we have 1000th
and u know it
LOL... I'm a BFL fanboy? That's a good one.
BFL has ~555TH/s worth of ASIC incoming, but there's no indication that they've actually sold that many. Their actual preorder number could be and likely is significantly less.
bASIC imploded. They may still have preorders (or at least the money), but no one is ever getting a product.
Avalon sold a total of 900 66GH/s units between their two batches. Even if you add in another 600 units sold on the side to Chinese customers (which is a huge stretch) that is only 100TH/s worth of preorder sales.
No one's paid for a Helveticoin unit.
Only one person has come forward and admitted to being crazy enough to send PrimeASIC money.
There is no way that there is already 1PH/s worth of preorders paid for and in the pipeline.
The fact that you consider PrimeASIC already shipping says a lot about your credibility, TBH.
hey send me a prv msg if bfl pays in btc not promised imaginary asics in the future like u geting paid in
send me link i troll for them 2
send me link i troll for them 2
What?
This is mostly for my own amusement. Bump this to tell me how wrong or right I was when summer arrives
well amaterours deel wit difictulty
there is over 1000th preoprdered in the pipepline
witch is 139 million
only problem is bfl will not deliver till demcember or 2014 that
but ur correct
Sigh... Proof?
if my memory is not mistake mrteal ur a bfl fan boy
proof number 1
and number 2
bfl said to ahve 75k chips ordered witch then will nto deliver anytime soon cristma best case scenario
with all other alraedy shipping like
avalon
primeasic
and rest
we have 1000th
and u know it
hey send me a prv msg if bfl pays in btc not promised imaginary asics in the future like u geting paid in
send me link i troll for them 2
This is mostly for my own amusement. Bump this to tell me how wrong or right I was when summer arrives
well amaterours deel wit difictulty
there is over 1000th preoprdered in the pipepline
witch is 139 million
only problem is bfl will not deliver till demcember or 2014 that
but ur correct
Sigh... Proof?
This is mostly for my own amusement. Bump this to tell me how wrong or right I was when summer arrives
well amaterours deel wit difictulty
there is over 1000th preoprdered in the pipepline
witch is 139 million
only problem is bfl will not deliver till demcember or 2014 that
but ur correct
[Unsubbed]
Hindsight is always 20/20
First of all, 20/15 is the best visual rating. I don't know what people say 20/20, as that's an expected average which doesn't imply very good vision, merely acceptable vision.
Ah, you must be unfamiliar with the phrase..and standard optometry for that matter as 20/15 isn't the best visual rating...20/.000∞ is (obviously).
I've been away for a bit (and have no pre-orders, lol) so when exactly is the new alleged release date for BFL products? I'll laugh if they get beat by another company like the one making Avalons. I figured from the beginning they were lying about the date just to get the most pre-orders since it's such a time sensitive thing.
They announced a 30-day delay around the middle of December. ATM, they should get their chips around Jan 15th. It looks like...NOPE! lol.
Hindsight is always 20/20
First of all, 20/15 is the best visual rating. I don't know what people say 20/20, as that's an expected average which doesn't imply very good vision, merely acceptable vision. Secondly, I could dig up posts from a long ass time ago telling people that they're not going to ship on time. You know who else said they're not going to ship on time around July 2012? Butterfly Labs on their own website
And I think we all know the southern hemisphere is just a myth. It is obviously not a real place. For example, Lord of the Rings was allegedly filmed there. Dragons and hobbits and Sauron do not really exist so obviously neither does the southern hemisphere.
Is it November yet?
nah., someone reset the counter.. its january again..
If time keeps fragmenting like that, this is going to be worse than Final Fantasy VIII.
Is it November yet?
nah., someone reset the counter.. its january again..
Is it November yet?
This is mostly for my own amusement. Bump this to tell me how wrong or right I was when summer arrives
It's summer right now, and the difficulty is 3M. Sorry.
BTW, in case you didn't realise, the southern hemisphere:
- exists
- has people living in it
- has a 6 month phase offset for seasons
http://betsofbitco.in or http://bitbet.us or your opinion doesn't count
And where is Obsi right now with my BTCs I invested on him through GLBSE?
I've been away for a bit (and have no pre-orders, lol) so when exactly is the new alleged release date for BFL products? I'll laugh if they get beat by another company like the one making Avalons. I figured from the beginning they were lying about the date just to get the most pre-orders since it's such a time sensitive thing.
They announced a 30-day delay around the middle of December. ATM, they should get their chips around Jan 15th. It looks like...NOPE! lol.
Hindsight is always 20/20
I've been away for a bit (and have no pre-orders, lol) so when exactly is the new alleged release date for BFL products? I'll laugh if they get beat by another company like the one making Avalons. I figured from the beginning they were lying about the date just to get the most pre-orders since it's such a time sensitive thing.
They announced a 30-day delay around the middle of December. ATM, they should get their chips around Jan 15th. It looks like...NOPE! lol.
I've been away for a bit (and have no pre-orders, lol) so when exactly is the new alleged release date for BFL products? I'll laugh if they get beat by another company like the one making Avalons. I figured from the beginning they were lying about the date just to get the most pre-orders since it's such a time sensitive thing.
They announced a 30-day delay around the middle of December. ATM, they should get their chips around Jan 15th. 
I've been away for a bit (and have no pre-orders, lol) so when exactly is the new alleged release date for BFL products? I'll laugh if they get beat by another company like the one making Avalons. I figured from the beginning they were lying about the date just to get the most pre-orders since it's such a time sensitive thing.
They announced a 30-day delay around the middle of December. ATM, they should get their chips around Jan 15th. Just like they SHOULD have shipped in October, November, and December...lol
I've been away for a bit (and have no pre-orders, lol) so when exactly is the new alleged release date for BFL products? I'll laugh if they get beat by another company like the one making Avalons. I figured from the beginning they were lying about the date just to get the most pre-orders since it's such a time sensitive thing.
They announced a 30-day delay around the middle of December. ATM, they should get their chips around Jan 15th. 
where's the official bet?
The only offer so far available for X.IDIFF.JUN future on MPEx indicates that seller expects difficulty to end up well below 77 million. Whoever really believes it's going to be over 100 million, go there and buy it. If you disagree, also go there and sell
That's not the end of November. That's not the end of November at all, rofl.
I've been away for a bit (and have no pre-orders, lol) so when exactly is the new alleged release date for BFL products? I'll laugh if they get beat by another company like the one making Avalons. I figured from the beginning they were lying about the date just to get the most pre-orders since it's such a time sensitive thing.
exactly 4-6 weeks
[/troll]
I've been away for a bit (and have no pre-orders, lol) so when exactly is the new alleged release date for BFL products? I'll laugh if they get beat by another company like the one making Avalons. I figured from the beginning they were lying about the date just to get the most pre-orders since it's such a time sensitive thing.
This is mostly for my own amusement. Bump this to tell me how wrong or right I was when summer arrives
I agree based on BFL saying that their 1st batch of asics is 100k chips:
https://bitcointalksearch.org/topic/bfl-are-expecting-100000-chips-128414
Australian culture will have an Asustralian bet on a fly walking or flying up a wall
So ..instead of blah blah blah this that woulda coulda shoulda
Lets put money on it ..
So ..instead of blah blah blah this that woulda coulda shoulda
Lets put money on it ..
I am Australian so will bet on anything
I don't really see the connection? 
where's the official bet?
I am Australian so will bet on anything
Give me an exact date and I will put 5 BTC that says No to 100 million
where's the official bet?
my extremely elaborate estimate puts it at 20.344x and it was quite conservative so your 33x is probably about right.
Yes, somewhere between 20x and 33x is the real value.
my extremely elaborate estimate puts it at 20.344x and it was quite conservative so your 33x is probably about right.
Though I'm not sure I can picture reaching your "end of November" max numbers, I'm 100% with you on the minimums.
A single re-target never changes the target by more than a factor of 4 either way to prevent large changes in difficulty.
The question now is how many days it will take before the next difficulty change.
The code that enforces this is located here.
https://github.com/bitcoin/bitcoin/blob/d62a1947be5350ed60066ccacc7aba43bbdf48fb/src/main.cpp#L857
good call:
if (nActualTimespan < nTargetTimespan/4)
nActualTimespan = nTargetTimespan/4;
if (nActualTimespan > nTargetTimespan*4)
nActualTimespan = nTargetTimespan*4;
Though I'm not sure I can picture reaching your "end of November" max numbers, I'm 100% with you on the minimums.
A single re-target never changes the target by more than a factor of 4 either way to prevent large changes in difficulty.
The question now is how many days it will take before the next difficulty change.
The code that enforces this is located here.
https://github.com/bitcoin/bitcoin/blob/d62a1947be5350ed60066ccacc7aba43bbdf48fb/src/main.cpp#L857
thats a scary number 100 Million LOL ... i doubt it
depending on how many people order mini rig's and such
and also if new hardware comings out again but still
look for longs its taking for stuff to come out now...
depending on how many people order mini rig's and such
and also if new hardware comings out again but still
look for longs its taking for stuff to come out now...
1) ASIC devices not only meet their predicted specs, but some exceed them
2) ASIC devices become extremely cheap
3) USD/BTC values skyrocket to new highs and stabilize up there
IMHO : ASIC already seems to be exceeding spec.. and are cheap, maybe become extremely cheap this winter..
Haha I know, right. The day I posted that was the day BFL had me cross off #1 on that list with their updated specs
1) ASIC devices not only meet their predicted specs, but some exceed them
2) ASIC devices become extremely cheap
3) USD/BTC values skyrocket to new highs and stabilize up there
IMHO : ASIC already seems to be exceeding spec.. and are cheap, maybe become extremely cheap this winter..
I've bet on a 100 U$ / BTC before 2014 !
This is mostly for my own amusement. Bump this to tell me how wrong or right I was when summer arrives
I agree... Let's bet on it @ betsofbitco.in
I'd received a mail from Yifu Gou (the boss of Avalon) in which he say that the 300 units on preorder gone sold in 1 day and will be shipped before end feb.2013. Here there is the mail https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=110090.420. Is not clearly stated that they will be ready with another batch but they continue to develop the ASIC, so is quite sure that there will be another batch in few months.
Ah, cool beans dude, thanks for posting that. I believed your statement before, but I like to have a reference in case they update it with new data
Imagine I will mine 0.5BTC/day in Q1 2013 
, when using a bASIC @58GHs. BTC/USD must be stable arround 25$ or I am not going to buy any mining hardware.
, when using a bASIC @58GHs. BTC/USD must be stable arround 25$ or I am not going to buy any mining hardware. 
September 30, 2012, 11:54:29 PM
I think 30M will be reached in 8-9 months (unless more delay in ASIC production)
Well how about that..we're on the same page.
But Avalon has a preorder of 300 60GHash rigs alone for feb.2013 (18GHash) and say that another similar (or even bigger) batch will be ready after that date in few months, 62Thash will be from BFL and we are at 100THash by Apr-may. There are at least other 2 or 3 ASIC announced, if they will sell 60-80Thash in 6 months we are at 160-180GHash.
Link to this?
And yes that seems about right. My actual prediction starts at 150TH/s and goes up to 250TH/s within a 12 month timeframe.
[/quote]
I'd received a mail from Yifu Gou (the boss of Avalon) in which he say that the 300 units on preorder gone sold in 1 day and will be shipped before end feb.2013. Here there is the mail https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=110090.420. Is not clearly stated that they will be ready with another batch but they continue to develop the ASIC, so is quite sure that there will be another batch in few months.
September 30, 2012, 10:35:24 PM
I doubt we see any ASIC until Dec at the earliest, personally I think Q1 2013 regardless of manufacturer.
September 30, 2012, 10:00:25 PM
In the next six months difficulty will gradually increase to 34x. After that the 2nd generation of ASICs will arrive and nobody knows how they gonna perform.
Wrong. In the next six months the difficulty will increase 475x.
Oh I'm sorry, I thought we were pulling random numbers out of our asses.
Then lets do the 4x max per difficulty cycle and assume that there will be 3 difficulty cyles within two 4 weeks from shipping.
If 30 of the estimated 46.3 TH/s from BFL source go live, that puts the Network total to 53.144 Thash/s
At 23.2Thash/s the Estimated difficulty will be 3,060,648 in 279 blks
Add 43.6% to the Estimated Difficulty.
At 53.2Thash/s the Estimated difficulty will be 4,395,090 add 6.5% for every 2 weeks that those 30Thash/s are not added to the network.
So if those 30Thash/s hit the network lets say November 7th 2012. We will see a new Estimated Difficulty the following week November 14th. Assuming the network speed at that time being 53.2Thash/s the difficulty would be 5,309,047.00
I expect that there will be another 30Thash/s getting onto the network during difficulty cycle that started November 14th.
By November 24th expect to see an Estimated difficulty increase between 8,302,870 and 8,703,651.
The max potential increase in dificulty cycle and assume that there will be 3 difficulty cyles within two 4 weeks from shipping would be 4x of the previous deficulty.
If we got a difficulty change in 5 days then 14 days the difficulty would be at a wapping 12,242,592 for the first difficulty increase (5-7 Days).
Followed by the next estimated difficulty 4x 12242592 = 48,970,368.
My personal numbers are calculated at the difficulty being as follows.
November 7-14th 2012 @ 5,309,047
November 18th - 24th 2012 @ 8,703,651
My personal maximum estimate because of other factors such as more ASIC's being added to the network then estimated.
November 7-14th 2012 @ 12,242,592
November 18th-24th 2012 @ 48,970,368
Note: This is my personal augmented reality perspective on the situation.
September 30, 2012, 09:50:07 PM
In the next six months difficulty will gradually increase to 34x. After that the 2nd generation of ASICs will arrive and nobody knows how they gonna perform.
Wrong. In the next six months the difficulty will increase 475x.
Oh I'm sorry, I thought we were pulling random numbers out of our asses.
September 30, 2012, 08:31:06 PM
In the next six months difficulty will gradually increase to 34x. After that the 2nd generation of ASICs will arrive and nobody knows how they gonna perform.
Wrong. In the next six months the difficulty will increase 475x.
Oh I'm sorry, I thought we were pulling random numbers out of our asses.
September 30, 2012, 08:16:30 PM
summer where?
Bitcoin is a lot international - for me summer is weeks away.....I cant see diff being that high in a few weeks
Bitcoin is a lot international - for me summer is weeks away.....I cant see diff being that high in a few weeks
To clarify, around June-July 2013.
September 30, 2012, 07:33:24 PM
In the next six months difficulty will gradually increase to 34x. After that the 2nd generation of ASICs will arrive and nobody knows how they gonna perform.
September 30, 2012, 07:33:04 PM
summer where?
Bitcoin is a lot international - for me summer is weeks away.....I cant see diff being that high in a few weeks
Bitcoin is a lot international - for me summer is weeks away.....I cant see diff being that high in a few weeks
September 30, 2012, 05:42:37 PM
Lets look at it from a different angle... from a quick count of FPGA singles orders that were tracked here:
https://bitcointalksearch.org/topic/wait-list-bfl-singles-order-date-ship-date-77796
There appears to be 568. Now no one in his right mind would pass up the chance to upgrade those singles to ASICs. Either they will sell them to someone who intends to upgrade them or buy the upgrade themselves. The upgrade opportunity ends in March 2013 I believe. So what portion of FPGA singles are on that list? 10%? 50%? 90%?
So that portion of singles which have been tracked represents future hashing ability of 60 Ghash each.
568*60 Ghash = 34.08 Thash
What portion of all FPGA singles are tracked?
90%? = 37 Thash minimum network growth from BFL FPGA single upgrades alone
50%? = 68 Thash minimum network growth from BFL FPGA single upgrades alone
10%? = 340 Thash minimum network growth from BFL FPGA single upgrades alone
In addition, we've got mini-rig upgrades, flat out purchases, people just jumping in with a jally that never thought of mining before. The new SC single "lite" that is planned at 30 Ghash plus 4 or 5 other manufacturers filling up their preorder queues right now.
https://bitcointalksearch.org/topic/wait-list-bfl-singles-order-date-ship-date-77796
There appears to be 568. Now no one in his right mind would pass up the chance to upgrade those singles to ASICs. Either they will sell them to someone who intends to upgrade them or buy the upgrade themselves. The upgrade opportunity ends in March 2013 I believe. So what portion of FPGA singles are on that list? 10%? 50%? 90%?
So that portion of singles which have been tracked represents future hashing ability of 60 Ghash each.
568*60 Ghash = 34.08 Thash
What portion of all FPGA singles are tracked?
90%? = 37 Thash minimum network growth from BFL FPGA single upgrades alone
50%? = 68 Thash minimum network growth from BFL FPGA single upgrades alone
10%? = 340 Thash minimum network growth from BFL FPGA single upgrades alone
In addition, we've got mini-rig upgrades, flat out purchases, people just jumping in with a jally that never thought of mining before. The new SC single "lite" that is planned at 30 Ghash plus 4 or 5 other manufacturers filling up their preorder queues right now.
September 30, 2012, 05:07:43 PM
750TH/s is insane, and we won't be there by summer 2013. To get that hashrate using Minirig SC's, you'd need 500 of them or $15M worth of equipment. The market is getting bigger, but I don't think that there's going to be that much new equipment coming online in a half a year.
September 30, 2012, 04:57:22 PM
Total Hashrate on order from tracked "valid" orders: 46.3725 Thash
That's 200 Ghash per valid order. Do you think fake orders exceed real orders enough to bring that average down below 60 Ghash?
Assuming the average stays the same for unreported orders (which is a huge assumption I admit) and assuming half of all orders are fake, that means with 7678 orders in the pipeline, at 100 Ghash per order due to half being fake... there is 767.8 Thash just from one payment option from just one manufacturer.
That's 200 Ghash per valid order. Do you think fake orders exceed real orders enough to bring that average down below 60 Ghash?
Assuming the average stays the same for unreported orders (which is a huge assumption I admit) and assuming half of all orders are fake, that means with 7678 orders in the pipeline, at 100 Ghash per order due to half being fake... there is 767.8 Thash just from one payment option from just one manufacturer.
Right, but those are also orders over the past 3 months. Granted with the updated news I'm sure more valid orders are going to go in (probably a lot more), but I just can't picture anything near 770TH/s..even when adding up all of the competition as well.
We'll just have to see where things go over the next 3 months. Maybe we'll have a better idea of the direction around then and we can speculate half as much
September 30, 2012, 04:37:21 PM
Yeah, that's not quite likely. I alone have put in dozens of fake orders alone to test out different combinations of equipment. Turns out there are plenty of people out there like yourself that think I actually ordered all of them just because the order number incremented by 12.
A single SC minirig order easily absorbs your fake/unpaid orders while still boosting the average order size.
Look at the stats here: https://bitcointalksearch.org/topic/wait-list-bfl-sc-pre-order-information-monarch-orders-too-89685
227 tracked orders
225 Jalapeno SC
231 Single SC
21 Mini Rig SC
Total Hashrate on order from tracked "valid" orders: 46.3725 Thash
That's 200 Ghash per valid order. Do you think fake orders exceed real orders enough to bring that average down below 60 Ghash?
Assuming the average stays the same for unreported orders (which is a huge assumption I admit) and assuming half of all orders are fake, that means with 7678 orders in the pipeline, at 100 Ghash per order due to half being fake... there is 767.8 Thash just from one payment option from just one manufacturer.
Edit: Also note that this means the future network hashrate is growing at 4-5 Thash per day right now from this one order pipeline. So as BFL ramps up production and catches up to all these preorders we might see a very fast explosion in network speed coming over a timeframe of just a few months. Placing an order for hardware right now means once you receive it the network speed may very well exceed 1 Phash. Worst case scenario profitability calculations should take these possible factors into account.
I think we'll be in the PH/s range sometime next summer. BFL's bitpay order numbers are rising at ~81.5 per day. Assuming the orders average out to ~60 Ghash per order (which I don't think is too far off base with their current released specs, since there are multiple claimed SC rig orders, and orders of 6+ singles for one order number) that's ~5 Thash network growth per day just from BFL. Granted, many of those orders are probably not completed & paid for, but that is just the BitPay payment method we're looking at. People can also order through PayPal & Bank Wire.
Yeah, that's not quite likely. I alone have put in dozens of fake orders alone to test out different combinations of equipment. Turns out there are plenty of people out there like yourself that think I actually ordered all of them just because the order number incremented by 12.
Then you have 4-5 competitors releasing ASIC products as well. We've already seen a bit of competition driving the $/Ghash down, I think we'll see much more of that in the coming months. Some people have claimed that the chips can be produced for less than $1 per Ghash. If that is the case, I don't see how we won't have a multi-petahash network speed next year.
As impressive as that would be, it would also be the only way to achieve the PH/s mark you noted. At current prices, a 1PH/s network rate would mean you're $30,000 Mini Rig only churns out 200BTC a month. Granted that would mean about a 12 month payback (at the current rate of $12.35 USD/BTC), which isn't terrible. Buuttttt, if that rig price would drop to $3,000 or less, then I'd say your prediction is right on track.
Of course this argument goes out the window if no one delivers on spec, but it will be interesting times for miners either way.
True, but my guess is that it's pretty accurate. There are multiple companies offering roughly the same hash rate per chip...so either they're all conspiring against us or the chips do have some potential for high, sustainable rates.
I think 30M will be reached in 8-9 months (unless more delay in ASIC production)
Well how about that..we're on the same page.
You consider only the preorder of BFL + a similar batch from other vendors and double it for security: total 124Thash.
Nope. Made up those numbers off the top of my head for an example.
But Avalon has a preorder of 300 60GHash rigs alone for feb.2013 (18GHash) and say that another similar (or even bigger) batch will be ready after that date in few months, 62Thash will be from BFL and we are at 100THash by Apr-may. There are at least other 2 or 3 ASIC announced, if they will sell 60-80Thash in 6 months we are at 160-180GHash.
Link to this?
And yes that seems about right. My actual prediction starts at 150TH/s and goes up to 250TH/s within a 12 month timeframe.
How did you get those numbers?...and no where did I say anything 'no more purchases after the first batch'. I was just making numbers up for this example.
My actual research puts the difficulty at around 30M over the course of 12 months...but that's about to be updated given BFL's new product news, as well as increased ASIC competition and more preorders.
My actual research puts the difficulty at around 30M over the course of 12 months...but that's about to be updated given BFL's new product news, as well as increased ASIC competition and more preorders.
I think 30M will be reached in 8-9 months (unless more delay in ASIC production)
You consider only the preorder of BFL + a similar batch from other vendors and double it for security: total 124Thash. But Avalon has a preorder of 300 60GHash rigs alone for feb.2013 (18GHash) and say that another similar (or even bigger) batch will be ready after that date in few months, 62Thash will be from BFL and we are at 100THash by Apr-may. There are at least other 2 or 3 ASIC announced, if they will sell 60-80Thash in 6 months we are at 160-180GHash. Some FPGA and GPU miner still continue the operations due to free current or similar reason and we have reached the 30M.
This is mostly for my own amusement. Bump this to tell me how wrong or right I was when summer arrives
So..you're saying a 33x increase by summer? That would require a network hashrate of 726TH/s.
Let's take BFL's current preorder rate of 31TH/s...let's say double that for people that haven't put in their orders on the forum. So now 62TH/s.
Meh, let's double it again and assume that the other ASIC companies out there have just as many preorders combined to make a similar rate. Now we're up to 124TH/s.
This 124TH/s is going to be our base value for Q1 2013...you're predicting that the number of total orders (and overall devices in the wild) would increase 5.85 times within the next 6 months of Q1. The only way that would happen is if the following are met:
1) ASIC devices not only meet their predicted specs, but some exceed them
2) ASIC devices become extremely cheap
3) USD/BTC values skyrocket to new highs and stabilize up there
Only if all three of those conditions are met do I think the difficulty would reach that high...mainly since everyone and their grandma who even heard about bitcoin in passing would be trying to make some easy money with cheap ASIC devices.
I think we'll be in the PH/s range sometime next summer. BFL's bitpay order numbers are rising at ~81.5 per day. Assuming the orders average out to ~60 Ghash per order (which I don't think is too far off base with their current released specs, since there are multiple claimed SC rig orders, and orders of 6+ singles for one order number) that's ~5 Thash network growth per day just from BFL. Granted, many of those orders are probably not completed & paid for, but that is just the BitPay payment method we're looking at. People can also order through PayPal & Bank Wire.
Then you have 4-5 competitors releasing ASIC products as well. We've already seen a bit of competition driving the $/Ghash down, I think we'll see much more of that in the coming months. Some people have claimed that the chips can be produced for less than $1 per Ghash. If that is the case, I don't see how we won't have a multi-petahash network speed next year.
Of course this argument goes out the window if no one delivers on spec, but it will be interesting times for miners either way.
With the reward halving and coming ASIC price wars we might see first gen ASIC miners with high electricity rates priced out of the market sometime in 2013.
Maybe not 100.000.000 but neither only 17.000.000 as Korban say.
I extimate a 3-40.000.000 difficulty in 8-10 months: there are ASIC for 1THash/sec in delivery for the Q1 of 2013, but is not impossible to expect some 2 or 3THash/sec rig in near future.
The Korban prevision is based on the assumption that no one buy more ASIC after the first batch (or near so), but I think that for every ASIC preorderd at least another one can be sold in the next 4-6 months, doubing the difficulty.
I extimate a 3-40.000.000 difficulty in 8-10 months: there are ASIC for 1THash/sec in delivery for the Q1 of 2013, but is not impossible to expect some 2 or 3THash/sec rig in near future.
The Korban prevision is based on the assumption that no one buy more ASIC after the first batch (or near so), but I think that for every ASIC preorderd at least another one can be sold in the next 4-6 months, doubing the difficulty.
How did you get those numbers?...and no where did I say anything 'no more purchases after the first batch'. I was just making numbers up for this example.
My actual research puts the difficulty at around 30M over the course of 12 months...but that's about to be updated given BFL's new product news, as well as increased ASIC competition and more preorders.
I've got my eye on 58 million by 7/5/13, so your 100M would be less than twice as much. (edit: I kept reading double as doable)
I doubt we will see more than 70M, but 100M is almost a certainty by the end of 2013.
Current Prognostication from my optimistic model:
Block# Date & Time Block Time Block Value TimeToFind 2016 time Global Payout $ Global Hashrate Difficulty USD/BTC Rate Earnings per GH/day
245952 7/5/13 6:10 9.642791286 25 1166392.034 13.4999078 49000 $776,133.19 414641 57,924,637.73 $15.84 0.012155102
I do think we are going to see a bit of a bubble towards the end of the year, and a slump before growth returns in the spring or early summer.
Some implications of this:
(oh, that is my Median Risk sheet BTW, I do have a model that hits 200M by E0Y 2013, but it is based on assumptions like 100% of BFL pre-orders numbers shipping, which are a bit unreasonable.
Well, that is my guess.
Someone witness this baby and we will see if it is ugly in 9 months.
I doubt we will see more than 70M, but 100M is almost a certainty by the end of 2013.
Current Prognostication from my optimistic model:
Block# Date & Time Block Time Block Value TimeToFind 2016 time Global Payout $ Global Hashrate Difficulty USD/BTC Rate Earnings per GH/day
245952 7/5/13 6:10 9.642791286 25 1166392.034 13.4999078 49000 $776,133.19 414641 57,924,637.73 $15.84 0.012155102
I do think we are going to see a bit of a bubble towards the end of the year, and a slump before growth returns in the spring or early summer.
Some implications of this:
- More GPU's than expected are going to be forced from the market if the hasing rate is up in the 30 million range while BTC drops to the $4-8 range somewhere
- Some FPGA's may even get turned off for a while.
- Those expecting to "re-up" every 3-4 weeks as they make mining profits will see their timetables go to hell, or switch to saving
(oh, that is my Median Risk sheet BTW, I do have a model that hits 200M by E0Y 2013, but it is based on assumptions like 100% of BFL pre-orders numbers shipping, which are a bit unreasonable.
Well, that is my guess.
Someone witness this baby and we will see if it is ugly in 9 months.
Maybe not 100.000.000 but neither only 17.000.000 as Korban say.
I extimate a 3-40.000.000 difficulty in 8-10 months: there are ASIC for 1THash/sec in delivery for the Q1 of 2013, but is not impossible to expect some 2 or 3THash/sec rig in near future.
The Korban prevision is based on the assumption that no one buy more ASIC after the first batch (or near so), but I think that for every ASIC preorderd at least another one can be sold in the next 4-6 months, doubing the difficulty.
I extimate a 3-40.000.000 difficulty in 8-10 months: there are ASIC for 1THash/sec in delivery for the Q1 of 2013, but is not impossible to expect some 2 or 3THash/sec rig in near future.
The Korban prevision is based on the assumption that no one buy more ASIC after the first batch (or near so), but I think that for every ASIC preorderd at least another one can be sold in the next 4-6 months, doubing the difficulty.
This is mostly for my own amusement. Bump this to tell me how wrong or right I was when summer arrives
So..you're saying a 33x increase by summer? That would require a network hashrate of 726TH/s.
Let's take BFL's current preorder rate of 31TH/s...let's say double that for people that haven't put in their orders on the forum. So now 62TH/s.
Meh, let's double it again and assume that the other ASIC companies out there have just as many preorders combined to make a similar rate. Now we're up to 124TH/s.
This 124TH/s is going to be our base value for Q1 2013...you're predicting that the number of total orders (and overall devices in the wild) would increase 5.85 times within the next 6 months of Q1. The only way that would happen is if the following are met:
1) ASIC devices not only meet their predicted specs, but some exceed them
2) ASIC devices become extremely cheap
3) USD/BTC values skyrocket to new highs and stabilize up there
Only if all three of those conditions are met do I think the difficulty would reach that high...mainly since everyone and their grandma who even heard about bitcoin in passing would be trying to make some easy money with cheap ASIC devices.
This is mostly for my own amusement. Bump this to tell me how wrong or right I was when summer arrives
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