I pussied out | Bitcointalksearch.org

StewartJ

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Quote from: Otoh on January 05, 2012, 08:50:44 PM

today by staying up far too late & so drinking far too much, will list my trading positions tomorrow...

cashed out 1,100 of my bitcoinica longs at $6.18 yesterday, naturally it immediately shot up $1 to $7.20
I left 243 BTC long with their base price now down to $0.7959 & removed the original 300 BTC that I'd used as deposit/margin to open the position which was:

243.9 @ $4.107 - 26 Dec 2011
100 @ $4.65 - 1 Jan 2012
1,000 @ $5.528 - 1 Jan 2012

Total: 1,344 @ $5.205 base price

Wow... moving some bitcoin! The Bitcoinica style of trading eludes me.

I think today's volatility is going to keep me on the sideline for a while. Things may just be correcting for a bit, not sure yet.

The ask walls are building up, we have had 4 different $1 dollar roller-coaster moves in the space of 12 hours, and I'm feeling the bullish sentiment is wavering a bit.

I will probably miss the train on the way up, so I might have to take the later bus instead.

Otoh

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Quote from: StewartJ on January 05, 2012, 08:19:59 PM

Quote from: Otoh on January 05, 2012, 07:44:58 PM

Quote from: StewartJ on January 05, 2012, 02:57:09 PM

I got out late last night at $6.20, just because I was not going to be able to watch for 12 hours.

Now that the price has stabilized for a while, bought in again this morning at same price.

Feeling confident sentiment for another rally, up to $7.00.

^ good call

Thanks.

Since then I bought in at $6.20, set a sell price at $7.20, packed up and headed to the coffee shop turned on PC and saw the spike over $7, I was already cashed out! The spikes are nice but it's feeling a little too volatile for me.

May sit this one out until tomorrow. Have a sneaky suspicion we will trace back to $6.60 -$6.80, looking at trend lines.

How are you playing these crazy Bitcoin moves?

^ another good call

Otoh

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today by staying up far too late & so drinking far too much, will list my trading positions tomorrow...

cashed out 1,100 of my bitcoinica longs at $6.18 yesterday, naturally it immediately shot up $1 to $7.20
I left 243 BTC long with their base price now down to $0.7959 & removed the original 300 BTC that I'd used as deposit/margin to open the position which was:

243.9 @ $4.107 - 26 Dec 2011
100 @ $4.65 - 1 Jan 2012
1,000 @ $5.528 - 1 Jan 2012

Total: 1,344 @ $5.205 base price

StewartJ

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Activity: 392

Merit: 250

Quote from: Otoh on January 05, 2012, 07:44:58 PM

Quote from: StewartJ on January 05, 2012, 02:57:09 PM

I got out late last night at $6.20, just because I was not going to be able to watch for 12 hours.

Now that the price has stabilized for a while, bought in again this morning at same price.

Feeling confident sentiment for another rally, up to $7.00.

^ good call

Thanks.

Since then I bought in at $6.20, set a sell price at $7.20, packed up and headed to the coffee shop turned on PC and saw the spike over $7, I was already cashed out! The spikes are nice but it's feeling a little too volatile for me.

May sit this one out until tomorrow. Have a sneaky suspicion we will trace back to $6.60 -$6.80, looking at trend lines.

How are you playing these crazy Bitcoin moves?

Hunterbunter

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Quote from: NamelessOne on January 05, 2012, 07:43:15 PM

Quote from: Cluster2k on January 05, 2012, 07:35:31 PM

It takes a lot of courage to post on an open forum that you've just sold... and then watch the price rise another 20% within a day.

Watching the price rocket over $7, I can't help but feel we're beginning to see the giddy greed of May/June 2011 reappear again. Not a popular opinion, I know. People don't like to hear negative opinions. I'm long bitcoins but ready on the sell trigger.

Same, I've always been long. But I'll watch it like a hawk and be ready to sell.

Yeah I suspect the same thing is going on, and a lot more people are ready to sell on a dime. This might create a dampening on the system, I believe, stopping it reaching $30/btc again...not to mention the people who bought high last time and are just waiting for the break even price to get their money back out. The counter to this, of course, are the newcomers...if there are enough of them they'll mop the floor with all of us, like with any speculative ponzi, but I think by now many people at least heard of bitcoins and it's "riskiness" to quell that a little.

I personally think it's possible to hit $24 in the near future, and I'll probably exit there if I last that long.

Otoh

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Quote from: StewartJ on January 05, 2012, 02:57:09 PM

I got out late last night at $6.20, just because I was not going to be able to watch for 12 hours.

Now that the price has stabilized for a while, bought in again this morning at same price.

Feeling confident sentiment for another rally, up to $7.00.

^ good call

NamelessOne

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Quote from: Cluster2k on January 05, 2012, 07:35:31 PM

It takes a lot of courage to post on an open forum that you've just sold... and then watch the price rise another 20% within a day.

Watching the price rocket over $7, I can't help but feel we're beginning to see the giddy greed of May/June 2011 reappear again. Not a popular opinion, I know. People don't like to hear negative opinions. I'm long bitcoins but ready on the sell trigger.

Same, I've always been long. But I'll watch it like a hawk and be ready to sell.

Cluster2k

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It takes a lot of courage to post on an open forum that you've just sold... and then watch the price rise another 20% within a day.

Watching the price rocket over $7, I can't help but feel we're beginning to see the giddy greed of May/June 2011 reappear again. Not a popular opinion, I know. People don't like to hear negative opinions. I'm long bitcoins but ready on the sell trigger.

Litt

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Quote from: ineededausername on January 05, 2012, 07:07:07 PM

haha! Pussying out was a bad decision, wasn't it

People are pussying out right now. We aren't done yet.

And also diversification is for pussies and retirees. Cheesy

Win or go home.

Have a home to live in though. That's about it. Unless you are nearing your retirement age, you need to take risks in life imo.

You can always make a comeback in life if you have an able body and a decent head above your shoulders. Be a man and take big risks.

ineededausername

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bitcoin hundred-aire

haha! Pussying out was a bad decision, wasn't it

tvbcof

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Quote from: Litt on January 05, 2012, 12:59:26 PM

Quote from: evoorhees on January 05, 2012, 12:39:22 PM

Quote from: Cluster2k on January 05, 2012, 12:39:32 AM

If you never sell then you never really have a profit. The real world in which we live still revolves around government issued currencies. Need to take profits at some stage.

For some of us, our "sell" was selling USD for the real currency of Bitcoins. I cash out of USD at every opportunity.

True. There is no reason to hold on to a lot of fiat when there are much better places to place your bets on for the long haul.

This is a big incentive for me, though I still don't recommend BTC for most people since I don't consider it safe and solid yet.

A big difference between USD and almost everything else (BTC, PMs, etc) is that the former comes in automatically and bi-monthly. No other forms of wealth do in my case. So it makes a lot of sense that I would be actively looking for places to dump USD while holding on to other assets just to keep things in some form of balance.

zby

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Quote from: RandyMarsh on January 05, 2012, 09:36:18 AM

Quote from: zby on January 05, 2012, 12:57:14 AM

Quote from: RandyMarsh on January 05, 2012, 12:16:18 AM

Got scared and sold at 5.8ish, have I made a mistake? in any case I've profited for the day, and I need to sleep now (If possible I never sleep with BTC in my pocket, I could wake up with dirt for money)

Long time since i've seen 5am sober. zzzzzz

Have you been around in the spring last year - or did you start with bitcoin in the autumn?

I've been here since spring yes, I was up to 150% of my initial investment, then i hit a low of about 40%, im back up to 75%... and im so very weary now of the volitility of this market.

but it looks like the price has been fairly stable, i hope i dont miss the next rally Grin

Hmm I seriously started in April - and I was something like 1000% up when I sold in the autumn (it could be 2000% if I sold at the right moment - but maxing out is rarely reasonable). I am now again up quite a bit since I bought in December.

StewartJ

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I got out late last night at $6.20, just because I was not going to be able to watch for 12 hours.

Now that the price has stabilized for a while, bought in again this morning at same price.

Feeling confident sentiment for another rally, up to $7.00.

Otoh

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Activity: 3108

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Quote from: Sitarow on January 05, 2012, 12:51:19 AM

Quote from: miscreanity on January 05, 2012, 12:48:15 AM

Quote from: Cluster2k on January 05, 2012, 12:39:32 AM

If you never sell then you never really have a profit.

Yup.

A good practice is to scale in and scale out. For example: I closed 10% of my open positions today. On any significant declines, I'll probably add that back because my analysis suggests there's still room to rise. If I don't get the opportunity, I'll just continue to ride up with the other 90% of my holdings.

Trading is counterintuitive to your emotions. Learn to love the sinking pit in your gut when things don't move your way (then buy) and grow wary of the elated sensation upon doubling, tripling or hitting a 10-bagger (and sell).

If you keep at it, you'll develop your own trading style - short vs. long term, momentum chasing, etc. In general, you just have to heed and control your emotions.

Best!

Well said.

^ this

& also Litt if you'd care to share pse list your better places as I could do with some diversification maybe

Litt

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Quote from: evoorhees on January 05, 2012, 12:39:22 PM

Quote from: Cluster2k on January 05, 2012, 12:39:32 AM

If you never sell then you never really have a profit. The real world in which we live still revolves around government issued currencies. Need to take profits at some stage.

For some of us, our "sell" was selling USD for the real currency of Bitcoins. I cash out of USD at every opportunity.

True. There is no reason to hold on to a lot of fiat when there are much better places to place your bets on for the long haul.

evoorhees

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Democracy is the original 51% attack

Quote from: Cluster2k on January 05, 2012, 12:39:32 AM

If you never sell then you never really have a profit. The real world in which we live still revolves around government issued currencies. Need to take profits at some stage.

For some of us, our "sell" was selling USD for the real currency of Bitcoins. I cash out of USD at every opportunity.

RandyMarsh

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Quote from: zby on January 05, 2012, 12:57:14 AM

Quote from: RandyMarsh on January 05, 2012, 12:16:18 AM

Got scared and sold at 5.8ish, have I made a mistake? in any case I've profited for the day, and I need to sleep now (If possible I never sleep with BTC in my pocket, I could wake up with dirt for money)

Long time since i've seen 5am sober. zzzzzz

Have you been around in the spring last year - or did you start with bitcoin in the autumn?

I've been here since spring yes, I was up to 150% of my initial investment, then i hit a low of about 40%, im back up to 75%... and im so very weary now of the volitility of this market.

but it looks like the price has been fairly stable, i hope i dont miss the next rally Grin

Vandroiy

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Quote from: Cluster2k on January 05, 2012, 06:14:23 AM

Quote from: P4man on January 05, 2012, 05:08:28 AM

Quote from: Cluster2k on January 05, 2012, 04:17:14 AM

The time to sell up is when price growth becomes exponential.

You do realize 10%, 1% and 0.1% per year growth is.. exponential, right?

We both know what I mean. Have a look at the bubble popping in June 2011 for reference.

I don't think it's that simple. It was rising exponentially for quite a while before it popped, and it stabilized halfway up. Don't forget that exponential growth means exponential returns, so selling everything instantly is not always the best tactic.

I'm not rich enough to make sharp bets, so I sell small amounts in exponential steps unless I notice some indicator info that helps. That means that my selling volume goes with log price increase, and my returns grow heavily on the more extreme movements. In the June bubble, the erratic market movements and mania triggered me to stop and sell everything. But right now, I'm not so certain. After all, Bitcoin fundamentals were far better than a price of 2 or 3 USD, and I can't guess them to factor 2 precision. So I don't really see an opening for a bold move of mine, since it can still go either way.

Especially: look at the volume. This is not a simple repetition of the last bubble, the BTC volumes are extraordinarily high *and* people are more aware of the issue.

TL;DR: Don't know what to make of this. Some mania has returned, but Bitcoins can become quite valuable, so I don't know what to think.

Cluster2k

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