Topic: I ran a test on BTCFlip.com (Read 4041 times)

+1

Exactly, so if they were tipping it more than a variance of 5.7% in their direction, there's a 90% chance I would have noticed it.  Tada.  So we can safely say it's not a 75/25 for example lol.

You know what? With 100 fair coin flips you have 5.7% chance of getting a 10% wrong result (<40% or >60%), so NO. 100 tests don't tell you anything about being "within a few percent".

Please use statistics properly if you are trying to estimate fairness.

The chance of getting 11 out of 12 heads with a fair coin is much worse though: 3 out of a thousand. Still far from impossible though.

 

I just tested it. It appears down from here.

Has anyone tested mysitethatmayormaynotreturnyourbitcoins.com??

jeesus people...

So, according to the forum rules, I'm now stuck with having this in my signature, unless I want to have no banner at all.

Is btcflip.com still running normally?

I sent 2btc in order to play a game on btcflip.com at around 05:50 AM Feb/26th, 2012, GMT, but the game didn't start at all.

The address I sent 2btc is 1QKXYztB2zmVixTTvd89E2Bgh2LM7Uo3cD

Then I wrote a mail to [email protected] for help, no one reply the mail.

At 13:06 PM Feb/26th, 2012 GMT, I wrote another mail to [email protected] in case they didn't receive my previous mail, and still nothing replied.

Almost 12 hours has passed, now I wonder if this website is still runing normally? Is there anyone else  ever encountered a similar problem as I did?

The correct answer to that seems to be because in a sample size of 1 round (which is what i had the money for) I won on double trouble lol.  So 49% (not yet confirmed) vs mystery odds that appear to be unfair...go with double trouble.  vy the way, the commission is 1% for flip so obviously their odds are set above 1%.  But like I said, I haven't tested it completely yet.  They do things opposite too.  Your payment is confirmed first for a long time then you do the determination then instantly get paid.  Flip does it like it takes your word up front, generates a result (unfairly), then doesn't pay you until the initial bet was confirmed.  That seems exploitable on the surface btw but I'm not sure if you can make a forged payment real at will after the fact.

And btw, you don't need 100,000 attempts at a simplistic odds thing.  You'd need 100,000 samples for blackjack or video poker but not a two outcome system.  I think 100 is even enough to say hmm that was within a few of 50/50 or wow I just won or lost 90 times.  And since i'm poor, I'm doing 50.

if it's shown to be bad with large bets and good with small bets, why not just take it for what it is, and play with small amounts?

i won 0.24 btc so why not

wow, one that actually places the odds on the page.  And a support number!  And....words....on the page!  Lots of them!  Now we've got something.  I might look into it but I'm kinda broke atm all non-sent to the exchange for holding money in my wallet is gone unfortunately after that awesome losing spree at flip.  BTCGuild has been having all kinds of random stupid issues (like being "unlucky" consistently for like 2 weeks and sending out incorrect idle notifications) but I finally have decent BTC coming in now from my backup pool.  Like 25% more per day!  Screw BTCGuild.  They're the best but they have some kind of scam or severe problem going on at the moment.

So I'll have to wait a bit to run a test but I'll post it in another thread.  You know, I'd have plenty of money if someone were to donate some to me for all my high risk research  lol.  But since that's not gonna happen, wait a day or two and I'll have some results.  I'm shooting for another 50 round test.

You can view the source of the page with Firefox too (Control-U is the keyboard shortcut, but it's somewhere in the menus too), am i missing somthing? Why did you need to use IE at all?

has anyone run a test on doubletrouble.bitcoinbet.com?

I'm sure something like bitcoinstars.com would be fun.  Flip is more like...




Watch what happens when this lady tries to use BTCFlip.

Hi Thanks for the info i like to gamble for fun. So your info was great . Thanks Warren

You didn't mention how my math is wrong.  Okay, you run a longer test at high bets.  I'm sure an experiment by someone with the username luv2drnkbr would be really respected.  And don't let the fact that you really seem like the site's owner from your posts deter you.

Perhaps...

FYP

Are you serious?  You clearly have no experience with statistics and gambling.  Learn what it is you are doing and how to audit code and what constitutes an acceptable test.  "ZOMG i got 11 tails and only 1 heads, im clearly being cheated" reeks of ignorance and inexperience with gambling.  The site may or may not be a scam, but your post doesn't sway the argument one way or the other.

I'm a professional poker player by the way.

I was a little too unhappy to post the precise numbers after I got the calculation.  It turned bad real fast at low attempt numbers and I gave them the benefit of the doubt assuming it would even out.  NOPE.  And I already basically posted that they're fair.  That really pisses me off.  At all different amounts above 0.5 from the same receiving address, all but one lost in 12 attempts and then I didn't really feel like continuing cuz it got expensive.  If it was at 47% odds of winning, that's around a 2.1% chance of my results happening naturally so don't whine about the sample size.

These numbers aren't even in line with my past results of a sample size of like 5.  So originally it may have started fair, not so much anymore.  It possibly adjusts based on how much BTC they have on hand, which is a good way to not go upside down on it.  Obviously if you don't have the money to cover like a 100BTC bet or something someone could potentially make, you're going to program it to make that bet lose.  I don't think they had trouble covering a bet my size though.  But with no stated odds or any way to retrieve a reset session in your browser, it was a badly planned, hastily put together operation that doesn't even suggest an ounce of fairness.  It doesn't really suggest anything.  It's missing any info at all really!
Well hopefully their reputation is ruined enough that even if they do clean it up, nobody lets them benefit from their awful original operation.