What is your reaction to the concept that it may be possible by this October to have 40 Gh/s for $1300? Do you a) doubt this is true, b) already have orders placed with BFL, c) plan to wait and see, d) plan to sell your farm soon, e) something else?
I'm not trying to be obnoxious here by asking this - just wondering what your thoughts are as someone who has recently built a large farm.
Great question Dargo. To be honest, I believe BFL is the real deal and knowing a little about ASIC I fully expect they will be able to deliver the performance they are advertising. Although I have no idea on the time-frame or speed of keeping up with demand. I plan to place a pre-order with BFL, but not sure to what extent yet.
Not to discourage anyone, but the days are numbered for GPU miners, just as it was for CPU mining, if what is claimed is true. According to Bit-Pay, they hit a record number of transactions processed in one day. That was primarily attributed to BFL opening up pre-orders. Calculations estimate that pre-orders through Bit-Pay alone could account for about 8 TH/s of ASIC hardware. Unknown bank wires and other payments not included. Presently the network is somewhere around 12-13 TH/s.
So my estimate is this, assuming all that has been announced and promised is true: By beginning of November, the difficulty will have doubled to 25 TH/s. This means your mined coins per day will be cut in half. By the end of December, payout will cut in half again due to the scheduled reduction in rewards in the bitcoin algorithm. At this point, your mining operation will only be yielding roughly 1/4 of what it did before. Price should slowly climb, but it will take quite a while for that to occur. We've got to remember there are over 9 million coins already issued. This will change as it becomes easier for the common people to interact with bitcoin.
So, if your operation is costing you more than 25% of your gross earnings, you may want to think about a graceful exit strategy from GPUs. My guess is difficulty will temporarily take a heavy drop somewhere in the middle as the GPU exodus occurs, but will be picked back up by people reinvesting back into ASIC.
Remember though, not everything is certain aside from the reward drop in half around December. BFL coild fail to deliver on time or performance. One should keep a close eye on price AND difficulty along with ongoing expenses when determining when to exit GPU mining. In the meantime, keep spreading the word about bitcoin!