Do we really think that the btc network is going to be able to handle the future transactions in bulk and speed even with lightning network ?
It has actually been discussed, all you need to do is use google.
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With 1 MB blocks, the capacity of the bitcoin network is ~2500 tx/bk, ~360'000 tx/day, 2.52 M tx/week. To avoid excessively long delays due to congestion, the average blockchain traffic should be well below the maximum capacity; say, 70% of it. Then the LN will support at most 900'000 users.
With 8MB blocks, the capacity of the bitcoin network would be ~20'000 tx/bk, ~2.9 M tx/day, 20.2 M tx/week. In that case, the LN will support at most 7 million users.
With 8MB blocks, the capacity of the bitcoin network would be ~20'000 tx/bk, ~2.9 M tx/day, 20.2 M tx/week. In that case, the LN will support at most 7 million users.
So it also has its limits, but we'll need time and constantly growing user database for it to to require an upgrade. It's a temporary measure to keep the network running while the number of users is growing. In time we'll need upgrades, it's certain, but every piece of software available will need it at some point. What programs remained unchanged for the last 10 years without any revisions being added?
I expect that by the time we start to have issues with transaction speed again there will be another solution this time to upgrade the first layer, other than changing the block size.
