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Topic: I think we're in a bull trap after all (Read 3850 times)

legendary
Activity: 1834
Merit: 1019
July 03, 2013, 05:22:19 PM
#34
Your analysis is based on four previous bull runs up. That is hardly a "standard" to be using as a measuring stick of what should happen with the price. Remember that when those to previous moves happened the bitcoin community was about 1/5 of what it is now.

Fair enough, why is it flat then?

Same reason it was relatively flat on first blue up arrow a first?

Just be patient bro.

and look where being patience that got us!  Angry
hero member
Activity: 560
Merit: 500
March 19, 2012, 08:01:42 PM
#33
I have to wonder if some of this massive selling has anything to do with the linode theft. Those coins have to be dumped on the market at some point and they could have been mixed more than enough by now to have made their way back to market. I have zero proof to back this up but this is the speculation section of the forum after all.
hero member
Activity: 994
Merit: 1000
March 19, 2012, 04:37:57 PM
#32
Nah I gonna wait this one out, It would be a shame if the big crash starts now but at least I wont be at a loss.

Fair enough, I suppose it's not much of a trap anyway if people see it coming.

The selling pressure has been stupendous the last 3 weeks...gotta end some day, right?

EDIT: But it shall not be this day!
legendary
Activity: 1666
Merit: 1057
Marketing manager - GO MP
March 19, 2012, 04:32:15 PM
#31
Nah I gonna wait this one out, It would be a shame if the big crash starts now but at least I wont be at a loss.
hero member
Activity: 994
Merit: 1000
March 19, 2012, 04:28:46 PM
#30
Wink

I didn't say it was necessarily going to drop right now Smiley.
i expect the drop to be about 5.8 <-> 5.9

Looks like even that may have been optimistic.

Still no takers?
legendary
Activity: 1666
Merit: 1057
Marketing manager - GO MP
March 13, 2012, 06:18:10 PM
#29
psst...  Roll Eyes
hero member
Activity: 994
Merit: 1000
March 13, 2012, 05:37:16 PM
#28
Wink

I didn't say it was necessarily going to drop right now Smiley.
i expect the drop to be about 5.8 <-> 5.9

Sounds fair. It's a date.
hero member
Activity: 994
Merit: 1000
March 13, 2012, 04:02:07 PM
#27
Wink

I didn't say it was necessarily going to drop right now Smiley.
legendary
Activity: 1904
Merit: 1002
March 13, 2012, 10:08:12 AM
#26
The shorts below 5 $ are a great bait for bulls, if they decide to take it...

Perhaps you are right but then...let's wait and see.... Roll Eyes

I am not saying I am right, just saying that this would be a springboard to create a big short squeeze.

Except there is lack of short positions on bitcoinica. https://www.bitcoinica.com/pages/interest
If someone want to hunt for leverage, there is only one way: down.

You misunderstand... They certainly have more bitcoin reserves than dollar reserves, but those numbers don't tell you much about the positions people have taken up without knowing how much of each currency is on deposit.

I suspect they simply have a lot more bitcoins than dollars that have been deposited.
hero member
Activity: 602
Merit: 508
Firstbits: 1waspoza
March 13, 2012, 08:43:42 AM
#25
The shorts below 5 $ are a great bait for bulls, if they decide to take it...

Perhaps you are right but then...let's wait and see.... Roll Eyes

I am not saying I am right, just saying that this would be a springboard to create a big short squeeze.

Except there is lack of short positions on bitcoinica. https://www.bitcoinica.com/pages/interest
If someone want to hunt for leverage, there is only one way: down.
hero member
Activity: 994
Merit: 1000
March 12, 2012, 08:56:40 PM
#24
So in other words you're just trolling?
nope i just try to save you some stress because later you wont understand where is the flaw in your analysis

Thanks for caring.
hero member
Activity: 994
Merit: 1000
March 12, 2012, 08:38:52 PM
#23
Alright, so how do you decide whether to go long or short? Don't use any charts and just wait for the market to do something? That's fine if so.

If you look at charts, do you know the difference between a deliberate change and a real one?
flip a coin you only have 50% chances to be wrong you will sleep better  blaming the bad luck that thinkng that some random dude with 10k USD is playing with your logic

So in other words you're just trolling?

What you think of the system is irrelevant to a problem framed within its structure.
legendary
Activity: 1022
Merit: 1001
March 12, 2012, 08:22:09 PM
#22
Bullcrap!  Grin
hero member
Activity: 994
Merit: 1000
March 12, 2012, 08:13:35 PM
#21
u are wrong

About what?
your conclusion is wrong because the data is LOL, making any serious study based on data that can be "changed" using 10 000 USD or even less = wrong

Alright, so how do you decide whether to go long or short? Don't use any charts and just wait for the market to do something? That's fine if so.

If you look at charts, do you know the difference between a deliberate change and a real one?
hero member
Activity: 994
Merit: 1000
March 12, 2012, 06:58:06 PM
#20
The shorts below 5 $ are a great bait for bulls, if they decide to take it...

Perhaps you are right but then...let's wait and see.... Roll Eyes

I am not saying I am right, just saying that this would be a springboard to create a big short squeeze.

If you have that sort of power, it makes more sense to squeeze out all the existing over-leveraged bulls first, taking their leveraged coins at a lower price, then riding the wave from there.

But anyway, I guess me bringing this up is moot. Bull and Bear traps are only traps because people genuinely believe the price is going to go a particular way.

This is the longest period of no movement in like...bitcoin history. What amazes me is that even the heavy $$ seem to be sitting on the sidelines, when all it takes is like 20k-40k btc in either direction to pretty much guarantee explosive momentum.

It's broken out of the trend line, as far as I can tell, but there's some serious doubt about that in the market. The point I was trying to make with the OP is that on trend reversals people psychologically need a major backtest of the old trend to be "sure" the trend is over. I suppose that will come in its own time.
legendary
Activity: 2100
Merit: 1000
March 12, 2012, 05:19:17 PM
#19
The shorts below 5 $ are a great bait for bulls, if they decide to take it...

Perhaps you are right but then...let's wait and see.... Roll Eyes

I am not saying I am right, just saying that this would be a springboard to create a big short squeeze.
hero member
Activity: 994
Merit: 1000
March 12, 2012, 05:13:33 PM
#18
The shorts below 5 $ are a great bait for bulls, if they decide to take it...

Lol there are more longs.
hero member
Activity: 994
Merit: 1000
March 12, 2012, 05:08:58 PM
#17
Your analysis is based on four previous bull runs up. That is hardly a "standard" to be using as a measuring stick of what should happen with the price. Remember that when those to previous moves happened the bitcoin community was about 1/5 of what it is now.

Fair enough, why is it flat then?

Same reason it was relatively flat on first blue up arrow a first?

Just be patient bro.

Even that first one had a big sell off before price could rise...I didn't mark it, but you can see it.

My theory is that the bulls can't play until the bears are satisfied.
hero member
Activity: 980
Merit: 506
March 12, 2012, 04:55:28 PM
#16
The shorts below 5 $ are a great bait for bulls, if they decide to take it...

Perhaps you are right but then...let's wait and see.... Roll Eyes
hero member
Activity: 980
Merit: 506
March 12, 2012, 04:54:36 PM
#15
Your analysis is based on four previous bull runs up. That is hardly a "standard" to be using as a measuring stick of what should happen with the price. Remember that when those to previous moves happened the bitcoin community was about 1/5 of what it is now.

Fair enough, why is it flat then?

Same reason it was relatively flat on first blue up arrow a first?

Just be patient bro.
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