I thought btc would go down 5% today.... (but it went up 4%?)

STT

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The biggest direction changes are when public consensus is in agreement. The various traders predicting all different targets are not that consensus, they are all seperate and the effect of their calls is not the united effort required to really move a price.
Stuff like the Facebook Libra coin I can believe does have an effect, simple reasons why would be:

Immediate story, not complex and everyone 'understands' simultaneously
Common conclusions, many believe Libra coin is related to crypto somehow
Participants all facing the same direction, hence we have a push from many believing its a bullish event and speculate as such

I dont even think Libra is crypto, its slightly different to Paypal and thats it. More details required but so far I dont see why its important directly. However since its speculation the facts dont matter that much at the moment, the story has given many similar motivation to which creates a wave in the market which acts like self confirmation so now it must be true!
In this case its bullish, later if Libra is not really a positive then we get a retraction in that speculation I think and some weakness but it wont be as singular but distributed over time before and after Libra releases. Buy the rumour sell the news

figmentofmyass

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Quote from: pooya87 on August 03, 2019, 11:58:40 PM

the problem is that most of the things we read online are not what people really expect to happen. what we read is mostly what they wish to happen specially things they post in social media. for example there are a lot of day traders who place a buy order at for example $9500 when price is $9800 and then come online and "predict" price to fall down to $7000 because they want their $9500 buy order to be filled.

what gives you the impression people are doing that? do you think that kind of "manipulation" has an effect?

most analysts/traders are just wrong most of the time. if they were calling $7k, it's more likely they were just affected by recency bias. so in a downtrend, they just expect lower and lower and lower. shorting the bottom, etc. IMO, most price predictions are what people actually expect. this is for 2 reasons:

1. ego. nobody likes posting predictions and getting it wrong. in fact, sometimes it feels more important to be correct than to make money. Cheesy

2. a lot of analysts on social media are trying to sell signal services. they need correct predictions, not blatantly wrong ones.

pooya87

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Quote from: klaaas on August 03, 2019, 04:50:05 PM

Quote from: bitbunnny on August 03, 2019, 01:40:54 AM

It's the good thing that price is rising now but after it went down under 10000$-recently many expected it would fall further and nade totaly different strategy. Be always prepared on possible surprise.

With the spikes last month it was waiting for a correction before we pushed over the 10 again and are going to testing 11k currently. What made you expecting it would drop further ?

the problem is that most of the things we read online are not what people really expect to happen. what we read is mostly what they wish to happen specially things they post in social media. for example there are a lot of day traders who place a buy order at for example $9500 when price is $9800 and then come online and "predict" price to fall down to $7000 because they want their $9500 buy order to be filled.

STT

legendary

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The mythical whales, if the market is dictated so easily then its not going to last anyhow folks. Markets serve the people to decide a price, thats definitely going to vary over a weekend vs the week days I reckon and all sorts of other factors.

15 or 30 min bars wont say much just noise short term. The lowest time frame for any reasonable conclusion I would say is 4hr or 1 hour if you cant wait for the 4 to close I guess is ok so long as you check back if the 4hr bar closed up or down.
Right this moment I'm waiting for UTC time to confirm the 1 day bar as above the 50 day average price or not. Seems like it will close above 50 day which is bullish action but MA is just momentum indicator to flag strength I think.

1Referee

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Quote from: klaaas on August 03, 2019, 04:50:05 PM

Quote from: bitbunnny on August 03, 2019, 01:40:54 AM

It's the good thing that price is rising now but after it went down under 10000$-recently many expected it would fall further and nade totaly different strategy. Be always prepared on possible surprise.

With the spikes last month it was waiting for a correction before we pushed over the 10 again and are going to testing 11k currently. What made you expecting it would drop further ?

Basic mass logic; everything that pumps will pump higher and everything that dumps will dump lower.

It would help if people for once paid attention to what actually happens on a technical level, but nope, they just have their 15-30 minute charts open and look at the red and green candles. Green candles mean it's a fantastic day while red candles mean that big bad whales are manipulating the market to buy lower.

I lost count on how many people have blamed whales for pushing the price down ever since we marked the yearly high.

klaaas

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Quote from: bitbunnny on August 03, 2019, 01:40:54 AM

It's the good thing that price is rising now but after it went down under 10000$-recently many expected it would fall further and nade totaly different strategy. Be always prepared on possible surprise.

With the spikes last month it was waiting for a correction before we pushed over the 10 again and are going to testing 11k currently. What made you expecting it would drop further ?

bitbunnny

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Don't forget that with investing in Bitcoin you always take certain risk that you need to be prepared on and you can't fully predict how the price will behave.
It's the good thing that price is rising now but after it went down under 10000$-recently many expected it would fall further and nade totaly different strategy. Be always prepared on possible surprise.

STT

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The price is roughly revolving around the 50 day average at present, if we look at previous behaviour its tended to match rough momentum in the price.

Was previously a very fast trend, now it could show us as being capped in our aspirations for the moment at least. 50MA is moving upwards quite strongly still, its hardly a negative so far; more of a brake possibly.

exstasie

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Quote from: BitHodler on August 02, 2019, 05:28:40 PM

I'm not sure if there are massive stops below $9000 because we were very close, and if the stops where located there, it would have tempted market movers to trigger them with how thin the order books were/are.

We never undercut the July 17th low, so regarding stops, we just don't know. Makers and whales don't all always agree either. There was a whale fighting very hard to prop the market up above those lows, market buying into every dump. That seemed to discourage sellers.

If the market goes back to $9K there will definitely be massive stops located there by now. No such thing as a triple bottom!

BitHodler

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Quote from: adaseb on July 30, 2019, 03:24:55 AM

With the declining volume however it looks like maybe the bulls might have a chance, hopefully the $9100 support holds and doesn't break. If it goes then there is massive stops below $9000 and should hit $8.7K area very quickly shortly after.

Similarly, I can name up plenty of reasons to why declining volumes can favor the bears. At the end of the day, a decline in volume has historically lead to more declines than increases for Bitcoin, especially during an already bearish momentum.

I'm not sure if there are massive stops below $9000 because we were very close, and if the stops where located there, it would have tempted market movers to trigger them with how thin the order books were/are.

The thing with stops being triggered is that it will very likely not respect support levels until the last stop has been liquidated. Bots are quick to withdraw buy orders which might lead to a mini flash crash and therefore much lower levels.

michellee

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Glad to see bitcoin price going stronger this day, the price increase slowly but it gives good progress to go up. If the situations are like this, I think in the next week, we will see bitcoin price will increase more than $10k and still increase more. But that will not happen if suddenly the price is down and that will make people panic for a while. Maybe in these two days, the price will reach and break $11k and no matter if the price is down, it will get up again.

Distinctin

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Quote from: adaseb on July 30, 2019, 03:24:55 AM

With the declining volume however it looks like maybe the bulls might have a chance, hopefully the $9100 support holds and doesn't break. If it goes then there is massive stops below $9000 and should hit $8.7K area very quickly shortly after.

Support were able to hold, this year so far, bitcoin has no let us down yet and I pretty confident this year is gonna be a bullish year.
After it's being down $10K and causes some panic, here we are back again at $10K and because we recover, we might see more uptrend, probably $11K in the next few days, that's my very optimistic guess.

Lanatsa

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Quote from: adaseb on July 30, 2019, 03:24:55 AM

Its looking bad because we got a bad weekly close. I am think we will probably at least see $8.5K area before we head back up past $11K or so.

The issue here is that since June 26th when we almost hit $14K, we kept making lower lows and lower highs and this is clearly seen on the daily chart.

With the declining volume however it looks like maybe the bulls might have a chance, hopefully the $9100 support holds and doesn't break. If it goes then there is massive stops below $9000 and should hit $8.7K area very quickly shortly after.

Well this has been a tight month to be honest. Bitcoin growth has dwindled for the past few weeks and a drop from $13k looks pretty upsetting but this is how things work in the market. Fluctuations will happen but what we need to do is to stay consistent and look for more investment opportunities as the price drops. There will be enough recovery till September.

When bitcoins price tends to have a good run people do believe that it can even reach out $14k price but eventually the price movement didn't sustained but instead it did correct which is expected because not all the time we would see a continuous price increase.I do prefer on having that way than on seeing short term spikes and a very devastating correction later on.

adaseb

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Its looking bad because we got a bad weekly close. I am think we will probably at least see $8.5K area before we head back up past $11K or so.

The issue here is that since June 26th when we almost hit $14K, we kept making lower lows and lower highs and this is clearly seen on the daily chart.

With the declining volume however it looks like maybe the bulls might have a chance, hopefully the $9100 support holds and doesn't break. If it goes then there is massive stops below $9000 and should hit $8.7K area very quickly shortly after.

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Quote from: buwaytress on July 29, 2019, 02:42:43 AM

@perla I know for sure I'm not the only one who feels almost the complete opposite of that. I was actually really comfortable when the bigwigs and the old hands were starting to worry last year. Alleged holders were giving up. Tom Lee supposedly gave up predictions. The bullish threads were dying out.

But it didn't totally die down and that's what I wish happened. I wanted the bear or whatever winter to stamp out and purge the optimists. Because that would have really kept in only the strong.

The recovery came too soon. Not a bad thing at all but it delays the massive bull I'd like to see.

So yeah, no, seeing all the good news doesn't make me feel particularly good.

This is what I think as well, I thought that this year will be a boring one and not much will happen and that will make the remaining weak hands to sell their coins, but instead we got an important recovery and while many were happy about it, and I am as well, this is going to delay the bull market that can produce a new all time high, and the reason is simple only a minority of traders and investors make money and after this recovery most traders will expect an even greater performance in 2020 due to the halving but now I have my doubts it will happen since not everyone can be a winner.

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Quote from: jubalix on July 25, 2019, 04:45:47 AM

I just *felt* a dumpage down by 10% to 20% over the next 2 weeks then a 5% up then sideways for about 6 ~ 12 months, then the next up over the year 2020 1/2 tp 2021 1/2 at which point we go to 250K ish USD.

my prediction

Anyone can predict anything. Even if bitcoin keep do a good improvement your price can be reached. But foe me, if in 2020 or 2021 maybe 50k still possible to reach and still on logical price to predict.

True that, but we should not put all our hopes in our prediction especially if it is not backed by anything. Even the best of the technical analysis were shamed by Bitcoin. Proving them that their guesses are wrong.

Quote from: ?? on ??

To tell you the truth I do not like the predictions in which is said that Bitcoin can move down or move up or more sideways. Surely one of these three will be right. Cheesy

If you are expert technical analytic then you should predict only one thing if Bitcoin will go up from here or downwards from here.

Predicting one thing and stating the opposite with "ifs" is just another play it safe guesses. I bet there is no TA that can 100% predict the "what" and "when" of Bitcoin price.

buwaytress

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@perla I know for sure I'm not the only one who feels almost the complete opposite of that. I was actually really comfortable when the bigwigs and the old hands were starting to worry last year. Alleged holders were giving up. Tom Lee supposedly gave up predictions. The bullish threads were dying out.

But it didn't totally die down and that's what I wish happened. I wanted the bear or whatever winter to stamp out and purge the optimists. Because that would have really kept in only the strong.

The recovery came too soon. Not a bad thing at all but it delays the massive bull I'd like to see.

So yeah, no, seeing all the good news doesn't make me feel particularly good.

iMark

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Quote from: Febo on July 25, 2019, 09:23:42 AM

Quote from: jubalix on July 25, 2019, 04:45:47 AM

I just *felt* a dumpage down by 10% to 20% over the next 2 weeks then a 5% up then sideways for about 6 ~ 12 months, then the next up over the year 2020 1/2 tp 2021 1/2 at which point we go to 250K ish USD.
my prediction

Anything can happen. It could go down 20% in next 6-12 montsh and then up 5% in two weeks and after that sideways for a day. and after sideways BAM. Price goes nuts and never come back!

Anything can happen but crazy price movements will be impossible. the price won't go up to $200k, it is a very crazy value for only 1 crypto. the price falling is very likely to be, like down 50% because bitcoin market had experienced it several times before. so stay prepared with all the possibilities on the market

Lucius

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Quote from: Juggy777 on July 27, 2019, 11:27:35 AM

@Lucius I’ll second that $100k is an unrealistic target at best I’m expecting it to touch $40k in coming years, my target for this year end is $20k at max.

In this moment looks unrealistic for next ATH, but there is always possibility that something really big is going to happen and this will push price up at least ten times to $100k. Only thing that can do that in my opinion is Bitcoin ETF approval, or some very big player who will start to buy Bitcoin like crazy. I think that both options have very little chance of happening this or next year, and that big bull run will probably start after next halving.

Quote from: Aveatrex on July 27, 2019, 11:56:34 AM

In my opinion,$100k is not only unrealistic but almost impossible to see in the next couple of years.As soon as BTC hits the last ATH which is $20k, the victims of the last -80% dump will instantly sell to cancel their previous loss; which means that BTC will struggle before breaking this level.

We can not exactly know how many people are still holding what they buy in late 2017 and in first months of 2018, but some of then are probably sell during 2018, most of them could be placed in the category of weak hands. It is also fact that price is very close to $14k recently, and this was possibility for some investors to take their money back.

Some experts think that next bull run will be driven by institutional money, and they can take all coins from week hands and boost price at least x3 or x4 from where it is today.

beerlover

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I think the approach of "we have already gone so much, lets be happy about that for a while" is good enough. I mean do we really need to go to 15k? Do we need to break the all time high record? Can't we just be happy about the fact that we have managed to make bitcoin go triple of what it used to be? Shouldn't that be enough for all of us? Why do we want bitcoin to always go up?

I will tell you why, because we want to make a profit not use bitcoin for what it is, people don't care about bitcoin, bitcoin could be zero and they wouldn't mind as long as they make profit from it. People only care about dollars they have in their bank accounts and we can't really make something out bitcoin and get global adoption if we only care about the price, it is really sad and upsetting.

Topic: I thought btc would go down 5% today.... (but it went up 4%?) (Read 790 times)