Topic: ichimoku cloud says 3100$ is the cheapest bitcoin will ever be - page 3. (Read 17784 times)

i gave you the link to where i used more important types of indication, i should have posted in the OP but again indeed relying on only this to be 100% is dumb, but i am a big believer in fractals when it comes to bitcoin, even in small time frames , you can find a dozen of fractals that strangely keep on repeating for no technical reason on the chart. this could be the act of bots or god knows what.

as far as how the ichimoku works, i know exactly how it does, as far as am concern the red cloud represents tremendous resistance ahead which is obvious, every previous support from ATH is now adding to the cloud, the ticker it is the harder to break. but being under the cloud does not mean an extended or never ending bear market.

there are a dozen of reasons on why this could be the bottom or at least something that is very close

1- Major support area that held as both support and resistance for about 100 days in 2017.
2- touching the 200 weekly MA which BTC never closed below
3- touching the 50 monthly MA which not a single monthly candle closed below it
4- 85% drop from ATH which almost exactly the same drop we had in 2014
5- it is a very strong support physiologically even or those who don't do TA 
6- it is probably the last wall the bulls have to defend before going 1100 as there is latterly no major support below this
7- the RSI on the monthly is sitting at 44 which is nearly the exact bottom of  2014 and the RSI is over sold on the weekly too

TA wise, this level is amazingly strong and should we have a monthly close below the 2700-3000 area then it will be a very easy and fast trip to 900-1100 without any doubts.


as  far as the trading plan goes for the couple next months

1- buy the 3k zone , sell the 5-6k
2- sell the close below 3k buy the close above 6k.

as for people shorting at 3k before we break it , i have nothing to say to them except "Good fucking luck" you gonna need it.

No, the picture is clear enough and I get what you are saying. But just because the lowest price happened two times in the past at that particular configuration, it doesn't mean it will happen again.

Or let me put it this way: that's not how the Ichimoku system works. I can show you countless examples of other currencies where the appearance of the red cloud above the price meant a prolonged downtrend.


Yes I agree, Ichimoku has its moments, but no indicator is perfect if used alone.

Makes sense.

Recovery will be slow and painful.

Dont rely on just one view, we saw this with the 6000 support area.   It was called time by a few different views but took some time to develop into a negative scenario.   The indicators etc werent wrong exactly but confirmation is usually needed for a position to progress.
Cloud might be right but I want to see it across a few perspectives to be convinced and I imagine the market does check this level

My view of current price action is this is an area the market slides into previous support and so could meet selling, blue line here is the 50 day.   My more medium term guess was more bullish at the 6000 area but not sure we go right there

Sure Ichimoku is a somewhat good indicator, but indicators go wrong all the time. This has been tried extensively in other currency pairs and its not even that reliable these days

Like ever in history ? Or for now ? Ichimoku can't show you what the price will be in 2030 or something, of course can't even in 2019 properly but I just wanted to give an exaggerated example. This means 3100 can't be achieved these days, probably won't go down that much, however if the price goes up a bit and than another whale who bought a lot during the sub 4000 levels could potentially sell all of their coins all at once (again) and create a bear run that will continue with the panic sellers doing their thing and we can be under 3100 once again.

Ichimoku is here for the short term possibilities, but when you put in extra unexpected things into play there is nothing that can keep bitcoin over 3100 (technically speaking). That being said, I still think bitcoin can go back to 6500 thousand dollar levels without a problem.

While the patterns seem to indicate a sign of growth, I'm still not buying it, or at least I'm not convinced that we're already out of the bear market. It needs more than just breaking the current resistance IMO, though there had been a lot of shorts that had been closed in the past 2 days of trading. Even then I'm still expecting yet another crash before a sideways movement for the rest of 2019, with a potential bull run starting by 2020, and until then these picture are just projections and assumptions.

We will see sub-$3,000 bitcoins. There's really no question about it. We'll see sub-$1,000 bitcoins eventually, because bitcoin is on a long term down trend to zero, just look at the charts and read the sources.

I agree with his assessment, we will never see bitcoin under $3000 again.  There are just too many financial institutions that are entering the crypto space.  Once prices get this low people get greedy because they can easily 5x their money from these price points by simply holding.  This will likely be the last chance you have to get very rich off crypto with little work.

Also I see people like to use charts these days but you are hilarious lol, is bitcoin's price movement begining of the new era of great painters/drawers? lol
OP I agree with you that we will see high rise in 2019 and new most time high in 2020 but have different opinion. Bitcoin is so unpredictable, we can't only think with charts. But let's think about mining too, this plays a huge role. One fact is that after halving, people almost believe price will rise and have very positive imaginations on it + miners really need high price. In 2020 we will got as much rise (if not more) as we got last year.

Yes it's good to see the market right now from last week, BTC is going great and it needs to be continued for a while . Something is better than nothing I was likely to sell my coins after a long wait but I have changed my mind now to hodl for few more days.

Just recently, Mark Dow, a trader and economist who worked at the U.S. Treasury and the International Monetary Fund, has closed his short position on Bitcoin!

https://coincodex.com/article/2779/mark-dow-a-trader-who-shorted-the-bitcoin-top-has-closed-his-position/

Well so far so good on that prediction. $4000 was just broken a short while ago. Still it's going to be a long way until bitcoin is clear of any potential new lows in this market. We saw how quickly the price fell from $6000 when it eventually did fall. Let's hope the cloud is right.

It's a technical indicator. I don't use it myself, but I know many traders that swear by it. Here's a brief summary:


The daily cloud flipped bearish shortly after the 2011 crash ended and shortly before the 2014 crash ended. The OP is suggesting the bear market may be ending because it's happening again. We obviously won't know until many months have gone by (same as 2012 and 2015), but it's possible.

First of all, we are still way below the (red) Ichimoku cloud. That means we are still in bearish territory. It could still go up or down, but the overall bearish trend is there.

The necessary condition for a bullish run is

1. a TK cross (blue line above the red line), which is not about to happen,
2. the price to go above the cloud, which is also not happening any time soon.

In addition, the cloud is becoming thicker, which could mean sideway action for longer periods of time.

Ok I will have to be candid with you peeps...

Every time I feel a tingling sensation in the rear, I will tilt to one side (usually to the left) and let it go.

The air that escaped became one of the most poisonous and toxic gas known to human, and all living things that has legs in close proximity are advised to leave the area immediately. It may sometimes trigger a slight giggle from me.

The formation of the said gas is cloud-like, and it may or may not be ichimoku cloud, but its definitely an itchy stinking cloud!
 

I see people nowadays always likes to draw on chart and if they saw some "formation" , THAT'S IT!

Thanks for the bearish market this year. Without it, their drawing skills will not be enhanced. /lol/

Anyways that's your speculation. I don't really depend on "some" indicators even how well it was backed up it is if we have to applied it on bitcoin price movement.

Goodluck everyone.

What the hell is an ichimoku cloud and why does it matter?
In the chart,the "cloud" appears 2 times when the bitcoin price is going up(2012-2013 and 2015-2016).
The last appearance is in the current bear market.That doesn't prove anything.

  



it is all in the picture, every time the red cloud showed up on the weekly chart, it marked the lowest price and the end of a bear market.

happened in 2012 >2015 and could possibly repeat again this time.  


if history is to repeat itself, then expect around 300 days of sideways market between 3 and 6k, end of 2019 will be the beginning of the new bull run. mid to end 2020 we hit a new ATH.

maybe !  


** sorry forgot to mention that if we close below this current support then bulls are doomed and going straight to rekt city. i highlighted on one of my comments how crucial this support is on a monthly scale, it does not matter if we had a wick down to 2.5 what so ever, but going below 2900 and not going back up straight away is very likely a 3 digits bitcoin again. as the next major supports sits between 900-1100$

** also I do not advice anyone to get married to one direction of the chart, just because I think this is the bottom it does not mean if it doesn't hold I will HODL my btc till they drop to 1k or even 1.8k, i will short to re-buy cheaper. as goes the other way around, i will be selling the moment i see 4500 all the way to 5500 as we approaching strong resistance.

this is not a financial advice what so ever. do your own research , trade smart .