I think these 'calculations' also include a lot of hope/optimism. A lot of people joined the crypto scene in 2017. For them all started with a the market cap rushing from one high to another. Then 2018 came and with it a lot of resignation. Now they think it MUST go up again soon.
I joined in the fall of 2012, so I remember 2014 and so on. Absolutely the same thing is happening now. With one amendment - the time period of the recession will be shorter than the previous one.
I disagree that the time period will be shorter, i can't see any indications for that. I would bet it's more or less the same unless the market makers decide it's going to be longer. There's still too many get rich quick idiots on the board. I can see one fake out before the bullrun though