Topic: If $537 fails to hold........ - page 2. (Read 3541 times)

$537 wont hold. Market  price will go up by 10% hold for a while go up by 20% ish and go back to $600s like it did the other day and towards $700s. Now market is currently going as predicted a few days ago elsewhere with market being around high $500 area and will fall into the 400s by Monday or Tuesday next week if not sooner. Prices will then go back up to recover and then eventually go on the down hill and many people are voting for the market to go down while the Gov sells the silk road coins off at auction. Panic sellers will panic sell n have some nice spikes to take advantage of. People  can hold do what they want but more are seeming to move to another alt until they have passed auction and sold so expect some low 300s 200s and maybe 100s or lower over the up coming months. If people are panic selling at least hold half your stock or 80% and sell a small amount off dot go hectic over it

It wasn't Ghash.io themselves who did the double-spend attack, at least the information there doesn't proof it. Also they had less than 30% of the network when this happened, and one of the core developers on Bitcoin also stated in that thread that you don't even need any hashing power at all to pull this off. So this is not something that can be prevented even if everyone mined only on p2pool.

A 51% attack in my book is when a single entity achieves 51% of the network's security.
This isn't even about malicious intention, this is about the vulnerability of the protocol itself.

But then again it is about malicious intention... repeat after me:

GHash.io has already double-spent
GHash.io has already double-spent
GHash.io has already double-spent

Is this a form of sarcasm or a severe case of wishful thinking?

m8, It has been 5 hours since we hit $538. Since then, we have had around 2000 BTC worth of volume on Stamp and Bitcoin has risen $25 from the low. By way of comparison, when Bitcoin hit $340, within 4 hours, Bitcoin had hit $410, a $70 increase, with some 16K worth of trading volume on Stamp.

Things are not looking so rosy here.



I don't understand any of this technical Bitcoin stuff. But if it is known that one single entity really has the power to start defrauding the Bitcoin system, and that everyone is relying on that entity exercising the moral rectitude not to abuse this power, then Bitcoin is finished.

I don't think ghash would actually launch a 51% attack on the network. Just because they have  51% of the hashrate does not mean they are double spending or preventing other pools from finding pools.

already back to the 560's, seems just like another weekend dump. But the fact that btc-e price is greater than bitstamp price is signal that we are in troubled times, so anything can happen, but I doubt we sill see sub 530 or up 600 until the 27th, unless if the FUD makers really do a great job

Not so fast! I am telling you in no uncertain terms that I don't know how this is going to play out. If $538 was the bottom, then that sets up for a classic rising wedge scenario which would be bullish on the intermediate term but bearish on the long term. If $538 falls....oo-er missus. Then we could have a real bloodbath on our hands.



And here is the strange thing. So actually am I. I was fairly certain that a strong correction was coming (not quite as strong as what we have seen of course), but still feeling that higher highs than $680 were a coming around the mountain. But here we are. We have corrected right down to the long term trendline and recovery volume hasn't been so fantastic. Perhaps Bitcoin can trend and grind along to test the trendline again on low volume in a few days time before going shooting up again, but if there is yet more selling pressure to come, then we all know what the implications will be of that line getting convincingly breached.....and btw....I have redrawn the line, aiming to hook up the $340 low with the Jan 2013 trending tangent points, and having cut $5 or so of the tail fo the October Silk Road crash, and I make the trendline at $542.59 at the point when we got the $538 low. So for all intents and purposes, the trendline was tested and the market stopped selling. We couldn't really say that the market has started buying though.....certainly nothing like the reaction we got at $340. The common sense viewpoint would have to be that $538 wasn't the bottom.

Yep, good point surprisingly. If that support (around $520 on my chart but who cares for small change) is confidently breached on the current FUD stream, that would mean the x10 acceleration is over at least for some time, and 300 is quite real.

I am still bullish though, and don't think it will go that low, just because of some obvious FUD this time - there aren't any actual news, just regurgitating some old FUD from china, silkroad and 51% - these are all used up to death, sorry; had to use all three at once to move the price

Too late segeln, by now everyone knows your TA is flawed and you lost all your credibility. Game Over!

sorry to all: I did an incorrect drawing for the trendline since 2013
here is the correct one:

sorry MatTheCat

Bitcoin = GHash Coin now, no need to wait for a real double spend
who wants GHash Coin?

i told you guys many times, since $62x til now, we are going down to $1xx and $x very fast now, believe or not, it's the way down

https://bitcointalksearch.org/topic/bitcoin-is-dead-ghash-over-51-sr-seized-coins-and-mtgox-coins-china-ban-etc-650517
Bitcoin is dead ! GHash over 51%, SR Seized coins and Mtgox coins, China Ban etc

If you have proof of a real and successful 51% attack, please post it, or a link to it.
Until then, it's just a remote possibility. If the attack were real, we would see the price entering a death spiral.

The only thing I'm watching now is how the community respond to the 51% attack (yes, it is an attack). This will determine the fate of bitcoin in my eyes.

All things China and Silk Road are sideshows at this point.

Here is where I am at. I have known about bitcoin since 11/29/13 (guy lost harddrive on news that lead me to look into it). Since then it crashed to 500 (from 1100+ when I first saw it). Then it went back to 980+

Then gox fud from 800 to 339. So in the like 6.5+ months, I have seen 2 big things. So I know things take time. I thought it was going to go (not ATH but like sub 800 or 900 or something) starting in July. But in the past, you have been correct so I guess more time for correction in my eyes.

But I still am expecting a upturn within a few months (def. b4 end of q4 @dec 2014). But lets see if 537-538 breaks. I think it might hold now (but has a good chance of breaking when the coins sell not because of the winner dumping, just other panic sellers).

Knock the idea of 2 da Moon right out of your head. Until the day comes that we take out the previous ATH, then there always exists the potential that we are still in a long term corrective Wave.

IF $538 holds as the bottom, then we can rule out the recent rise as being due to an EW impulse wave move, and due to a potential Rising Wedge move that is very much part of a Wave B counter trend rally. If this were to be the case, then the most optimistic top would be somewhere in $800-$900 range. But if the $538 support fails, then Bitcoin will be looking to most like a very scary proposition.


Yep. Noticed that recently. Other exchanges may take the lead, but only if Bitstamp moves, does the Bitcoin market as a whole move. If Bitcoin doesn't move, then the other big exchanges (most of which report much greater volume than Bitstamp), kind of look back at the $20-$30 price differential between their spot and spot on Bistamp and think 'ermm......maybe not'.

I don't think you have the full picture here.  I trade alts a lot more than BTC, so I know what a pump and dump looks like from a mile away and can spot certain players by whatever volumes they use.  It was pretty obvious to me the same, single entity was responsible for both making the price rise and fall, and it was done using Bitstamp.  My first thought was that someone was trying to experiment with pump and dumping Bitcoin.  My second thought was that someone like KNC, or coalition of ASIC makers, wanted to create an uptrend to sell Scrypt or SHA ASICs.


I'm not sure if I would use willy tainted data, but it's better than nothing.

Yea, a break lower then 537 might mean its going down more (for a little bit). Dam I thought this FUD was over. Everyone had high hopes for July, but maybe August or September might be the new uptrend.

You guys could always watch the 365-day EMA, instead.

This is what I have been noticing recently big style. Been saying it on this forum but it mostly gets dismissed as unsubstantiated conspiracy theory. This entity on Bitstamp prevented a break out from triangle at $680 range twice. It was his selling pressure that brought the market down to $500 range, which ultimately lead to some kind of leveraged long squeeze on Bitfinex as can be seen by taking a squizz at the rather erratic Bitfinex charts.

I trade all the time me and I am fucking shit at it! Always chasing the dragons tail thinking stuff like "right, last time I never took profits and got burned as the market turned on me, this time I will take profits and buy back in correction!" Read: Bought in at $460, sold at $520 in order to cash in on correction, Bitcoin goes to $680! lol. Then the next time I do the opposite; "Right, last time I took profits too early, this time I am gonna hold out for a real rise!" Only for the market to punish me again, but in the opposite way.....and that is just the trades I win. I have never even nearly took max potential profit from a winning trade since the inception of the bear market in Dec 2013, I have come close to taking 80%+ of potential losses in losing trades though.