Topic: If bitcoin becomes world's reserve currency? - page 2. (Read 3171 times)

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In this case - for once - it's up to the people of these United States, and not up to the Oligarchs of USA Inc.

We the People will embrace crypto and reject fiat, and in doing so we will sever the strongest of the threads the puppetmasters use to control us. Money.

This will also destroy the wealth of any oligarchs stupid or stubborn enough try to cling to their power over us via fiat scrip.

Say goodbye to credit scores, by the way.



Reads: "gentrification is humiliation" and "credit score = slavery".

Because Bitcoin didn't have an organisation behind it multiplying itself in secret to make it that price, somebody actually considered it worth that much in order to pay for it, therefore it's that price, that's how a real free market is supposed to work, prices will go down as people decide it's worth less than the highest price, but then it will go back up again.

If we obeyed the logic of other people claiming that by suddenly going up in price Bitcoin is a 'bubble' then going by that logic everything else should be a bubble including gold and of course we know that isn't true, ti's because the people throwing the term around don't even know what it is. Stuff like the housing market and the stock market were a bubble because instead of people trading it honestly and openly it was the central bank buying up everything in order to artificially keep it high.

You could argue that the $1000 high that Bitcoin reached earlier was a bubble because of the bot trading that was spotted but even then those of us who were in the know knew MTGOX was dodgy as fuck and weren't surprised by the market manipulation. I actually said myself before that Bitstamp's prices etc. were more realistic because they were actually going around filling orders and executing them properly.

For most countries whose currencies became the reserve, their currencies were initially backed by gold, which in turn could be seen more as an international currency than as a reserve. All other countries kept their own currencies intact (sometimes pegged to the reserve currency) but typically traded across borders using the reserve currency. China has recently set up many agreements with other countries to trade directly in Yuan, bypassing the USD and most notably with the Russian Natural gas deal announced last week. On a daily basis $USD3-5T changes hands.

For BTC to become a reserve currency it would first have to be adopted as a national currency. BTC is already an international currency but whether it will be used to back a national or reserve currency can only be answered over time. An interesting scenario would be for some country to suddenly dump a few $B into BTC to buy up as much it can in anticipation of BTC becoming more powerful. A few $B is a drop in the ocean for most countries' central banks to print. 

The petrodollar was an agreement by the US and the middle east that the ME would only trade oil in USD if the US provided military protection for the major ME oil suppliers, but especially for Saudi. It was put into place after the US took itself off the gold standard and it greatly extended the life of the USD even though it was no longer backed by anything. The death of the petrodollar is probably coming soon because the ME seems to running out of easily accessible oil while the US is producing more at home. Incidentally, 19 of the 20 WTC terrorists were saudi nationals but the US chose to invade Iraq.

Perhaps the Yuan will become the next reserve currency but it will have to prove its military strength first and China is definitely flexing its muscles into Vietnam, Japan and the Philippines.  About the only good thing that will come out of this is that we can say we watched history in the making.

Expect it around 2020, 2025 on the outside.

Look at the chart DeathAndTaxes posted. Do you notice a trend? What did each reserve currency has in common? Being a reserve currency is all about trade. The largest economy who trades with the most countries in the world will be economically dominant, and it makes sense for other countries to keep that dominant currency as a reserve. Can bitcoin be that dominant currency? Not until we have huge bitcoin forex markets. I believe the Chinese Yuan is a more likely candidate for the next reserve currency.

not really sure what you mean.  how would you arbitrage across unconnected or different systems.

at that 0.1% of a large market is still a huge amount, which will be arbitraged out by a POS or POS/POW systems that offers the same security.

Not necessarily.  Look at how much money changes hands every block.  There's reason to believe bit coin will be big enough so that  a small mining fee of 0.1% will provide ample security.

the people will just start using it as they cotton on that they can have their wealth inflated away, confiscated subject to capital restrictions, tracked, subject to insane judical systems and laws, inefficient taxation.

I actually think the hardest part of BTC (or CC's) has been done. The orders of magnitude it had to rise to get here are more than it has to go to 100K or even 1M.

eg 5~10e^6 since first listing, only 10~20e^2 for 100K and 10~20e^3 for 1M.

although the 1000-->9000 in absolute value is 10x more. Still its hard to argue that BTC is not still on a log graph growth.

reserve currency, well it would be a better reserve currency than any alternatives except for its POW. A POS currency and at this stage PeerCoin is going to be that. PeerCoins attributes are far better suited for reserve usage than BTC.

At some point BTC is going to have to fork to POS or POS/POW of some type.

The whole mining tax just makes it uneconomic vs pos / pow or pure pow, not to mention the drama of mining.

When that happens Bitcoin will value at least $100K.
But, I doubt the US dollar will get replaced. The US dollar is still there but we're hoping Bitcoin will be more open to use as a global currency within the next few years

you are comparing apples to oranges. it's more believable that bitcoin would become big, than it is to believe that countries all over the world will adopt bitcoin as its currency. it's just bitcoin fanboys dreaming of their btc being atop the mountain. there's just no way world governments would just relent their grip on currency reserves.. what, you think the people in high seats are such altruistic people that they'd let it slip?

Real wealth is much more than just money. Just like now, the wealthiest people in the world would be those with most non-cash assets.

perhaps.

but 5 years ago, if when Satoshi's white paper came out, and I said:
in a few short years, tens of thousands of merchants will accept
bitcoins and a single coin will be $600... you could have said
its a deluded pipedream and be just as plausible, if not more so.

More importantly, early adopters would only be able to spend their wealth once. Money continually circulates, so in the long run it is those able to earn a lot on a continuous basis that can spend the most, not those who have a lot of currency at one point in time.

this scenario is just a deluded pipedream. i am willing to bet everything that i have that bitcoin will not become a world reserve currency.

Those that risk their money by investing deserve any capital gains that would come if bitcoin does end up being big, just like they would deserve any losses they would face if it doesn't.

People who have a lot of bitcoin would be rewarded for their foresight. Any one could try to be an early adopter of bitcoin right now, but most don't, because they don't believe the cost is worth the chance that it will become a more widely accepted currency.

i doubt that would happen.

people would start demanding provable solvency.  that's already started in fact.
no one had that option before, but since the blockchain is transparent,
i think it will quickly become the norm.   

plus there's no need to have the IOU system with clearing houses, etc.
its no longer a debt based system -- you own the asset when you own a coin.