Topic: If Bitcoin Follows Previous Cycle (Read 193 times)

The bitcoin market is crazy, so I take every prediction whether crash or surge as a possibility.  Who would have thought that worthless BTC way back 2009  has reached $69k at its peak?  And who has thought that after reaching 1k+ way back in 2013 and crashing all the way to less than $200 will recover 20x in 2017?  Though I can say the projection of the next ATH is too high since we have to consider the difference in percentage growth of each cycle.


I have the same thought about the next ATH of BTC price.

Almost $140 000 if we look at the last ATH was $69 000, but if we look at it from the perspective of the lowest price, then it would be more than x8 price increase, which is nothing excessive compared to the previous cycle when we went from $3000 to even $69 000. As someone who is a long-term holder, I am more interested in the period near the end of this decade when 99% of all BTC will already be mined.

Then the rules of the game should also change, because if you have 2 million BTC that have yet to enter circulation in combination with everything that is already available, the price that Bitcoin has in relation to fiat is more than good.

That $240k seems a bit too much in the next bull market but I can't say anything since it's also the same pattern of Bitcoin price in the past. I'm also wondering where are these money coming from if someone would actually buy it but bigger companies are able to afford to buy even a single Bitcoin.

If there's a FOMO Bitcoin will eventually hit that price but it's just too soon to be expecting that and I think it's going to happen in the next bull run after we have this bull run in a couple of years.

The last run was also different from the past years so it's possible that the next cycle would be entirely different. But who doesn't like these predictions that are giving numbers if the same cycle will be followed. Well, I'm even calculating how much I will have by that time if it happens.  
x2 or x3 would be good enough already for me. As for looking at the x10 growth, from now on, it will take a lot of years before we likely see that.

Yep 240k isnt impossible it just seems like it is and you should not assume it will happen but equally dont dismiss such an event.   Justification would be by reference to prior action and the scale of prior gains, alot of the reasoning to me is that we are living in a time of great transition.   The macro look for currencies has moved away from dollar standard and now we are discovering what lies next, my main take is volatility continues to increase until the whole situation is unsustainable and we reset and its impossible to say what really occurs but I think anything which helps to restore stability becomes a source of value.  
   To say we are in a period of consolidation right now isnt far wrong, we are sideways while discovering boundaries which can be large and big movement but its not consistent trends seen on any timeframe hence much confusion but generally a big chart like this is fair imo.

If thats the case then to those who had accumulated on that $11k bottom would definitely had made the best decision that they ever made on crypto or BItcoin investment
and consider on holding it out for long term? It might not be precise since there's no way that we could ever predict and also there's no such thing about pattern
for us to say about cycle would really be repeating or into those things that happened in the past.

If ever it would happen then we know on whose the ones will really be making huge profits but it cant really be avoided that whenever we do hit ATH
then people would tend out to sell early.

$11k bottom would surely hit capitulation state to most people in the space and hitting that $200k is entirely possible as long as it follows the same path. Did Bitcoin follows the same pattern in the past similar to this? 2018 was a horrible year and it bottom in the 4th quarter too, no one expected a $3k bottom during that time.

The cycle is real and it’s not going anywhere. You don’t need to worry about the news or who is doing what. It literally doesn’t matter. Buy the dip every 4 years, sell the high every 4 years. It’s not brain surgery but this simple knowledge would make anyone wealthy beyond their wildest dreams if they just accepted and followed it.

Looks very possible to bottom $11k before DEc of this year. It's a horrible situation for someone who had bought at $17K still.
I have to emphasize though that back in Dec 2018 the bottom was seen only in the weekly time frame while we might bottom out this 2022 on the monthly time frame.

I think it's really possible because even the stock market analysts are also predicting this year to be horrific which could lead us to a 2-year recession.

It is the same thing people said when the price of bitcoin was few dollars. They said it is never going to go above $100, but here we are, sitting at around $20,000 with the all time high being more than $60,000.

Just curios, why do you think it won't happen? And why do you think $100k will happen? Or are these some random numbers you are saying?

You are somewhat correct on your other points. 15× is a quite reasonable expectation, but the goals of traders do not quite determine where the price is headed.

×2 compared to the last ATH is over $120k. That's quite a high decent ROI from where the price is now, to wherever the bottom of this current cycle would be. I would be quite satisfied with that as well.

I was thinking more about the fact that it is not realistic to expect a x5 increase in the price in the year preceding the halving, but also the fact that the halving has always been the trigger for a big bull run. It's true that the ROI is no longer what it was before, but that's completely understandable given that we are now x100 compared to 2015, which I personally remember well.

Still, people expect Bitcoin to perform some new miracle and achieve at least x10 in the next bull run, which is close to what is in the OP - but I would be quite satisfied with x2 compared to the last ATH

the last cycle was cut short so we can't really talk about following the previous cycle anymore since i don't think the cycle thing is even a trend that bitcoin is going to follow.

Thanks for this reply, at least you are constructive and displayed maturity, unlike the OP that got offended because I don't see Bitcoin in his way. Aside from professional analysis, Bitcoin has a lot of obstacles to overcome, this is common sense which might take between 2023-2024 to overcome because this year is already gone and inflation is still plaguing it.

And surely halving will help Bitcoin in 2024, yet we can't be certain on how much it would. Even if it helps it so much, Bitcoin will likely grow between the maximum of $70-$120K in 1.5 years. It will then slip into a major long-term correction or reversal that will take it another approximately 1.5 years since there is no smooth slope in the market.

In view of this, I don't see the feasibility of $240K being hit at all in the next 4 years. This is not magic.

This is another sensible point, no one should be 100% certain about what will happen. We need more developments both technically and economically before we can know what might happen.

At the moment, we see a strong bearish trend on the weekly and monthly charts, which means that there is no hope for any bullish reversal yet. Until these obstacles and more are cleared, especially next year, then we can begin to be more assured of any bullish speculations.

My guess is, it doesn't follow previous cycles, at least not exactly.
The market is been becoming less volatile over the years and we are not seeing ROIs to the tune of 1000× or 100×. It's now within a more conservative amount that was (10× or less). $11k to $240k is large return and I would genuinely be surprised if it goes that high within the next bull run.

As you said, it is all speculation.

Although there is always a possibility that something will happen much sooner than most expect, we are still in a bear market and it seems that this will continue during 2023, until before or after the halving in 2024, after which we can expect a new bull run. The key question is whether Bitcoin will follow the previous cycles or things will play out in a different way - but that's why all this is called speculation and everyone has the right to say their opinion - and others should not necessarily take it as financial advice.

This isn’t a joke my friend. In 4 years anything can happen.
If by the end of this year, Bitcoins manage to recover it’s price, then definitely in the next year it will touch 100k usd.
Then within 3 years going from 100k-240k won’t be difficult.
I know these are just estimations, but yes previously Bitcoins have surprised us many times, so this time also it will happen maybe.
Nevertheless let’s not argue what will happen in the future, just take the advantage of the current price.

I wish you had 17 years of experience in reading and understanding English.
Literally said If Bitcoin followed previous cycle, and here comes a retard who says it's a joke.
It's a clear speculation and the board where I posted it is called Speculation.

Why not you tell us where it's heading with your fucking 17 years of experience huh? Clown of the year.

It is you that should fuck off and write something reasonable next time, not all these paintings and assumptions.

Do you think professional trading and speculations are for children like you??? Please wake up and stop being an extremist, cool your nerves. What I wrote was my opinion, and I have over 17 years of trading experience, I don't just pen down. So, you should calm your ego and stop judging people by their ranks on BTT.

Previous cycle my feet! Do you even have a good chart cycle there? Where are your valid historic joints and regularities? You this naive brat. I will continue to say my right opinion on BTT regardless of ignoramus people like you.

That's the exact growth which Bitcoin did in previous cycle.
Many people like you called it a joke too.

You can fuck off and buy altcoins and poopshit.