If the coronavirus never happened, we'd still eventually have a 20% (which is a regular recession) and in my view, we would have anyway had a good shot at a 40% recession.
The 40% recession, view I had before the coronavirus, was the massive tax cuts with little economic result in the USA with the current Trump administration and the Republican
Senate that has 500 or more bills from the US House, that they refuse to vote on. To me, this is unprecedented, sure in the past, if your party controlled the Senate you would ALWAYS just
just vote them all down and zippo...none passes. But hey, in this day of daily fast news and internet, if you DON'T VOTE AT ALL, you have no record of note to get beat up and
run against in the next election. You are as pure as the driven snow, except for the small detail of refusing to pass any legislation at all, even ones your own members want to be passed
that makes sense in a bi-partisan way, but Republican Senate Leadership and the Executive Branch are just 'dandy' using gridlock as a political means to extort stuff in this democracy.
Add to the crisis of children being taken away from parents at the border, Environmental, massive tax cuts to the rich and corporations...I mean what could NOT go wrong!
This is all due to the current Trump Administration...where all government is evil and all crony capitalism is good! I indeed expected a 20% drop (recession) as a done deal and a 40%
recession as 'likely' well before the Coronavirus!
Now we have the Coronavirus Pandemic.
So much for BTC/Crypto as a store of value (so far) in a pandemic. Everything went down BTC/Crypto/Gold/Bonds/Stocks! Blam!
Even stuff that was not supposed to go down. like a rock, when the stock market dumps, like US bonds (tough to keep them up with no confidence in US fiscal policy anymore with Trump
antics of Tariff, etc) and of course Bitcoin.
In bitcoin/crypto's case I HOPE
it is a store of value and the dump with the stock market was due to NO ONE having real emergency funds for this kinda thing (especially in 3rd world nations) ..so what? you cash
out the gold under your hut? too soon? you get as many USD dollars as you can? What can I dump 'quickly' to fill emergency fund ..well BTC/crypto right away!
I assume as this Coronavirus Pandemic drags on this will change and gold/BTC/crypto/bonds will recover vs stock market..but we will see.
So to conclude...NOW...after this Pandemic has hit! I think we are royally f*cked...due to all the above BEFORE the coronavirus....I think NOW we are very likely
to have a 40% correction if this goes on for a year at frigging best!
As experts on commerce combined with disease experts on how this disease spread..seem to be agreeing on ..this may take a year or so to all calm down.
So a for sure now IMHO a good 40% correction (hopefully brief with a vaccine, and bounces back within a few months to regular recession)
But if th spread and the disorganization here in the USA and the world continues at this current and past level..it could well (hopefully briefly) bounce into DEPRESSION territory
...ie 50% dump in worldwide production due to all my above fears combined with the Coronavirus Pandemic and Vacinee not controlled and addressed very quickly.
as a correction. Sh*t on a stick we would be 'beyond' screwed.
I hope I'm wrong but was not a big fan of the direction things were taking in the USA and worldwide leadership and corporate greed before the Coronavirus Pandemic. This
A pandemic that may have just tossed a lot of gasoline on an already out of control fire of the economic/social/health variety. Sh*t just got way, way worse, IMHO.
end of rant
brad