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Topic: If current growth rate continues, $2000 by Dec 16 (Read 2109 times)

sr. member
Activity: 476
Merit: 250
Also you may want to run your numbers again, this time taking in account the recent news from china  Tongue
I think talking about 2000$ suddenly looks way more distant...
sr. member
Activity: 448
Merit: 250
“A decentralized registry for unique assets”
You should read rpietila's posts...

Market will not "crash". But it will serioulsly correct (-75%) when (and only after) it has grown more than 50% per day for at least 2 days.

Maybe it will crash from $2000 to $500.
Maybe it will crash from $5000 to $1000.
Maybe it will crash from $10000 to $2000.

Nobody knows.

Only thing we know is that right now it needs 4.5 millions dollars of new money every day to stay at this price...

75% is a crash and will never happen again unless bitcoin also fails.  There are too many people now to absorb the large dollar swings that whales could manage.  I think > 33% will never happen again.  So far, I've been right.

You do realize that Second Market is buying about ⅓ of the miners' new coins every day singlehandedly, right?  Wait until we get a couple more hedge fund managers that want their fund to look really good.  Pretty soon they'll be buying MORE than the mined coins every day.




Agree, Price is following the hashrate! harder it is to mine the longer miners need to hold onto there coins to sell for a profit. Those who control the supply, Control the price! Who do you think owns all the diamond mines. They burn diamonds to to keep the price up!
newbie
Activity: 36
Merit: 0
Now my question/ concern is will this growth continue.

Expand your graph to estimate the price 3 months from now and i think that you 'll get your answer  Tongue
i think its safe to assume it wont. but I wonder what price will be once this rate exhausts itself. once buyers run out of steam, sellers will take over driving price down in the same exponential fashion. i've been reading about damped oscillatory patterns because i see them everywhere on bitcoin charts. I'm not exactly sure of all the factors that drive these patterns but its interesting to think about none the less.
sr. member
Activity: 476
Merit: 250
Now my question/ concern is will this growth continue.

Expand your graph to estimate the price 3 months from now and i think that you 'll get your answer  Tongue
full member
Activity: 219
Merit: 106
You should read rpietila's posts...

Market will not "crash". But it will serioulsly correct (-75%) when (and only after) it has grown more than 50% per day for at least 2 days.

Maybe it will crash from $2000 to $500.
Maybe it will crash from $5000 to $1000.
Maybe it will crash from $10000 to $2000.

Nobody knows.

Only thing we know is that right now it needs 4.5 millions dollars of new money every day to stay at this price...

75% is a crash and will never happen again unless bitcoin also fails.  There are too many people now to absorb the large dollar swings that whales could manage.  I think > 33% will never happen again.  So far, I've been right.

You do realize that Second Market is buying about ⅓ of the miners' new coins every day singlehandedly, right?  Wait until we get a couple more hedge fund managers that want their fund to look really good.  Pretty soon they'll be buying MORE than the mined coins every day.



LOL @ 75% never again. wait to see how high/fast this rally goes before thinking that. LOL at > 33%. L oh fucking L

so far youve been right? youve been here 1 month and started posting in the middle of current rally

LOL

I've been here since April.  Lurking.

My post is there.  Quote it.  I'll be the first to admit I'm wrong if I am.
It wouldn't be bitcointalk without the "I've been here since..." dick measuring contests.
Carry on  Cheesy

unsheathe your sword and we shall battle to the death. my sword is certified from november of this year.
hero member
Activity: 588
Merit: 500
Not to mention lot's of miners (like me) are not selling anything they mine.

sr. member
Activity: 434
Merit: 250
You should read rpietila's posts...

Market will not "crash". But it will serioulsly correct (-75%) when (and only after) it has grown more than 50% per day for at least 2 days.

Maybe it will crash from $2000 to $500.
Maybe it will crash from $5000 to $1000.
Maybe it will crash from $10000 to $2000.

Nobody knows.

Only thing we know is that right now it needs 4.5 millions dollars of new money every day to stay at this price...

75% is a crash and will never happen again unless bitcoin also fails.  There are too many people now to absorb the large dollar swings that whales could manage.  I think > 33% will never happen again.  So far, I've been right.

You do realize that Second Market is buying about ⅓ of the miners' new coins every day singlehandedly, right?  Wait until we get a couple more hedge fund managers that want their fund to look really good.  Pretty soon they'll be buying MORE than the mined coins every day.



LOL @ 75% never again. wait to see how high/fast this rally goes before thinking that. LOL at > 33%. L oh fucking L

so far youve been right? youve been here 1 month and started posting in the middle of current rally

LOL

I've been here since April.  Lurking.

My post is there.  Quote it.  I'll be the first to admit I'm wrong if I am.
It wouldn't be bitcointalk without the "I've been here since..." dick measuring contests.
Carry on  Cheesy

unsheathe your sword and we shall battle to the death. my sword is certified from november of this year.
full member
Activity: 219
Merit: 106
You should read rpietila's posts...

Market will not "crash". But it will serioulsly correct (-75%) when (and only after) it has grown more than 50% per day for at least 2 days.

Maybe it will crash from $2000 to $500.
Maybe it will crash from $5000 to $1000.
Maybe it will crash from $10000 to $2000.

Nobody knows.

Only thing we know is that right now it needs 4.5 millions dollars of new money every day to stay at this price...

75% is a crash and will never happen again unless bitcoin also fails.  There are too many people now to absorb the large dollar swings that whales could manage.  I think > 33% will never happen again.  So far, I've been right.

You do realize that Second Market is buying about ⅓ of the miners' new coins every day singlehandedly, right?  Wait until we get a couple more hedge fund managers that want their fund to look really good.  Pretty soon they'll be buying MORE than the mined coins every day.



LOL @ 75% never again. wait to see how high/fast this rally goes before thinking that. LOL at > 33%. L oh fucking L

so far youve been right? youve been here 1 month and started posting in the middle of current rally

LOL

I've been here since April.  Lurking.

My post is there.  Quote it.  I'll be the first to admit I'm wrong if I am.
It wouldn't be bitcointalk without the "I've been here since..." dick measuring contests.
Carry on  Cheesy
sr. member
Activity: 378
Merit: 255
You should read rpietila's posts...

Market will not "crash". But it will serioulsly correct (-75%) when (and only after) it has grown more than 50% per day for at least 2 days.

Maybe it will crash from $2000 to $500.
Maybe it will crash from $5000 to $1000.
Maybe it will crash from $10000 to $2000.

Nobody knows.

Only thing we know is that right now it needs 4.5 millions dollars of new money every day to stay at this price...

75% is a crash and will never happen again unless bitcoin also fails.  There are too many people now to absorb the large dollar swings that whales could manage.  I think > 33% will never happen again.  So far, I've been right.

You do realize that Second Market is buying about ⅓ of the miners' new coins every day singlehandedly, right?  Wait until we get a couple more hedge fund managers that want their fund to look really good.  Pretty soon they'll be buying MORE than the mined coins every day.



LOL @ 75% never again. wait to see how high/fast this rally goes before thinking that. LOL at > 33%. L oh fucking L

so far youve been right? youve been here 1 month and started posting in the middle of current rally

LOL

I've been here since April.  Lurking.

My post is there.  Quote it.  I'll be the first to admit I'm wrong if I am.
legendary
Activity: 1106
Merit: 1005
You should read rpietila's posts...

Market will not "crash". But it will serioulsly correct (-75%) when (and only after) it has grown more than 50% per day for at least 2 days.

Maybe it will crash from $2000 to $500.
Maybe it will crash from $5000 to $1000.
Maybe it will crash from $10000 to $2000.

Nobody knows.

Only thing we know is that right now it needs 4.5 millions dollars of new money every day to stay at this price...

75% is a crash and will never happen again unless bitcoin also fails.  There are too many people now to absorb the large dollar swings that whales could manage.  I think > 33% will never happen again.  So far, I've been right.

You do realize that Second Market is buying about ⅓ of the miners' new coins every day singlehandedly, right?  Wait until we get a couple more hedge fund managers that want their fund to look really good.  Pretty soon they'll be buying MORE than the mined coins every day.



as far as i know, the april crash was coupled with mt gox having serious problems with deposit and withdrawals, which fueled the crash even more. So altough the market will likely have a normal correction after a boom, it will probably not react as heavily as in april. On the other hand the new guys may not know yet that mt gox has huge waiting times for deposits and withdrawals and verification (really they should use kraken), and they may become worried even if it's normal for mt gox to be so slow. So it may result in a similar panic like in april.

either way, I hope i'll respond in time and in the right way to double or triple up my bitcoins.
hero member
Activity: 574
Merit: 506
You should read rpietila's posts...

Market will not "crash". But it will serioulsly correct (-75%) when (and only after) it has grown more than 50% per day for at least 2 days.

Maybe it will crash from $2000 to $500.
Maybe it will crash from $5000 to $1000.
Maybe it will crash from $10000 to $2000.

Nobody knows.

Only thing we know is that right now it needs 4.5 millions dollars of new money every day to stay at this price...

75% is a crash and will never happen again unless bitcoin also fails.  There are too many people now to absorb the large dollar swings that whales could manage.  I think > 33% will never happen again.  So far, I've been right.

You do realize that Second Market is buying about ⅓ of the miners' new coins every day singlehandedly, right?  Wait until we get a couple more hedge fund managers that want their fund to look really good.  Pretty soon they'll be buying MORE than the mined coins every day.

EDIT: I wouldn´t trust an investor, who uses word "never" in his prediction.



"So far" since when? Since april? We have seen 50% swing as late as three weeks ago and that was merely a correction.

However I completely agree, that people, especially new ones will buy more coins, than is mined right now. Otherwise end game and bubble pop wouldn´t be possible so soon Wink
sr. member
Activity: 479
Merit: 500
You should read rpietila's posts...

Market will not "crash". But it will serioulsly correct (-75%) when (and only after) it has grown more than 50% per day for at least 2 days.

Maybe it will crash from $2000 to $500.
Maybe it will crash from $5000 to $1000.
Maybe it will crash from $10000 to $2000.

Nobody knows.

Only thing we know is that right now it needs 4.5 millions dollars of new money every day to stay at this price...

75% is a crash and will never happen again unless bitcoin also fails.  There are too many people now to absorb the large dollar swings that whales could manage.  I think > 33% will never happen again.  So far, I've been right.

You do realize that Second Market is buying about ⅓ of the miners' new coins every day singlehandedly, right?  Wait until we get a couple more hedge fund managers that want their fund to look really good.  Pretty soon they'll be buying MORE than the mined coins every day.



LOL @ 75% never again. wait to see how high/fast this rally goes before thinking that. LOL at > 33%. L oh fucking L

so far youve been right? youve been here 1 month and started posting in the middle of current rally

LOL
legendary
Activity: 1246
Merit: 1000
Only thing we know is that right now it needs 4.5 millions dollars of new money every day to stay at this price...

That's not true, only if you assume all newly mined coins are also liquidated each day.

Yes, more or less.

If they are not then the number of ""speculators"" increases wich makes the situation worse later.

I'm a miner myself, and I'm not selling my coins and I also don't consider myself a speculator. Many miners like myself have paid a big number of bitcoins for their miners and they want to mine those coins back and hold most of them for the long term.
newbie
Activity: 36
Merit: 0
You should read rpietila's posts...

Market will not "crash". But it will serioulsly correct (-75%) when (and only after) it has grown more than 50% per day for at least 2 days.

Maybe it will crash from $2000 to $500.
Maybe it will crash from $5000 to $1000.
Maybe it will crash from $10000 to $2000.

Nobody knows.

Only thing we know is that right now it needs 4.5 millions dollars of new money every day to stay at this price...

75% is a crash and will never happen again unless bitcoin also fails.  There are too many people now to absorb the large dollar swings that whales could manage.  I think > 33% will never happen again.  So far, I've been right.

You do realize that Second Market is buying about ⅓ of the miners' new coins every day singlehandedly, right?  Wait until we get a couple more hedge fund managers that want their fund to look really good.  Pretty soon they'll be buying MORE than the mined coins every day.



I'm not so sure that we wont see a -75% crash, in fact im pretty sure we will. however i think that when this happens price will reach equilibrium around 1k, not bad by any means
member
Activity: 113
Merit: 10
Only thing we know is that right now it needs 4.5 millions dollars of new money every day to stay at this price...

That's not true, only if you assume all newly mined coins are also liquidated each day.

Are you aware, that especially around Christmas the amount needed may be much, MUCH higher. Some miners have social lives too. Others may have been waiting for ROI on their new mining rigs.

Most miners are not dumb, they will sell at January instead because they will have to pay tax one year later...
sr. member
Activity: 378
Merit: 255
You should read rpietila's posts...

Market will not "crash". But it will serioulsly correct (-75%) when (and only after) it has grown more than 50% per day for at least 2 days.

Maybe it will crash from $2000 to $500.
Maybe it will crash from $5000 to $1000.
Maybe it will crash from $10000 to $2000.

Nobody knows.

Only thing we know is that right now it needs 4.5 millions dollars of new money every day to stay at this price...

75% is a crash and will never happen again unless bitcoin also fails.  There are too many people now to absorb the large dollar swings that whales could manage.  I think > 33% will never happen again.  So far, I've been right.

You do realize that Second Market is buying about ⅓ of the miners' new coins every day singlehandedly, right?  Wait until we get a couple more hedge fund managers that want their fund to look really good.  Pretty soon they'll be buying MORE than the mined coins every day.

hero member
Activity: 574
Merit: 506
Only thing we know is that right now it needs 4.5 millions dollars of new money every day to stay at this price...

That's not true, only if you assume all newly mined coins are also liquidated each day.

Are you aware, that especially around Christmas the amount needed may be much, MUCH higher. Some miners have social lives too. Others may have been waiting for ROI on their new mining rigs.
legendary
Activity: 1904
Merit: 1002
Only thing we know is that right now it needs 4.5 millions dollars of new money every day to stay at this price...

That's not true, only if you assume all newly mined coins are also liquidated each day.

Yes, more or less.

If they are not then the number of ""speculators"" increases wich makes the situation worse later.

Most miners are in it for the radically new capabilities this technology offers, not so they can cash out for fiat when the price is high enough.
newbie
Activity: 36
Merit: 0
Its interesting to note that during the April bubble we saw around 2500% increase in price(if one assumes that the bubble started around $10) before having a major correction. i think its definitely possible for us to see $2500, and $2000 wouldn't really surprise me. however these levels terrify me because i just don't think they're realistic for the time they would be reached.

If price doesn't have a major correction this month or next, I wont know what to think.
legendary
Activity: 1246
Merit: 1000
Only thing we know is that right now it needs 4.5 millions dollars of new money every day to stay at this price...

That's not true, only if you assume all newly mined coins are also liquidated each day.
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