Correct me if I am wrong but isn't the heart of the matter that if somebody controls 50% of the hashing power they can take over the system.
There is no way to "take over the system" with just a high hashrate pool/miner. Please read:
https://en.bitcoin.it/wiki/Attacks#Attacker_has_a_lot_of_computing_powerThe attacker can't:
- Reverse other people's transactions
- Prevent transactions from being sent at all (they'll show as 0/unconfirmed)
- Change the number of coins generated per block
- Create coins out of thin air
- Send coins that never belonged to him
The issue is double spending. The ability to spend the coins that the pool receives and then use the computational power of the pool to rebuild the chain faster than the original and spend that money again [i.e. thus issuing the pool members bitcoins that turn up invalid]. If you have more than 50% of the hashing power at your disposal, it is possible to spend a LOT of coins and then rebuild the chain [even longer] and spend it again. It is very unlikely in a pool that anybody would know that it has happened until received payments showed up as invalid. Nobody is suggesting that Tycho would do such a thing, but it is always advisable when talking about money that anybody may do anything. After all the only way to be effective is to appear "Good" until the trigger is pulled (using Tycho as an example, however, Tycho in the Deepbit scenario would be the first investigated and thus, I think the least likely to do such a thing). In reality though, I think the fear is that a hacker/cracker may break the system (pool), learn how it works, build the attack and launch it when the time suites them and in a manner to collect the rewards [i.e. cash out a large amount of bitcoins at high prices, attack the system, wait for the coin value to drop as trust in the bitcoin fails from all those who find their payouts invalid] and either keep the money or buy back into the market at a low price .. shorting the coin]. Clearly, work would have to be done to do this without detection, but due to the nature of the bitcoin and the route taken from coin to fiat currency, the trail may be hard to follow, especially if distributed.
The point is that pools are the OBVIOUS tool to rob the bitcoin. One large pool is a very alluring target from outside, but, a couple of colluding pools [or a couple of simultaneous attacks against those pools to commit this crime].
So, does Deepbit (or Slush for that fact) have industry leading security analysts constantly making sure the pool is secure and not being prodded, poked, altered, prepared, etc? I VERY HIGHLY DOUBT IT since Deepbit hasn't been in existence for very long [no pool has]. Thus, the vulnerability is very real. Will it happen? I hope not. Could it happen? Absolutely. Will somebody be tempted to look into it? Absolutely. Hackers break into the highly secure military and government computers all the time and they have been powerless to completely stop it. I don't think Deepbit even remotely has the ability to see it coming little enough stop it should a dedicated attack happen. Market cap is nearly $24 million USD now, so what will it be like in 6 months? How much money could an attack yield at that time? Yes, somebody will eventually find the motivation to at least consider the idea and start down the path (right now, I doubt somebody could get away with more than $20K (US) under the assumption that Deepbit has a day worth of BTC rewards on hand). The market cap has quadrupled in a matter of weeks. What happens in months? The ability to transfer money in and out is going to become easier. Security for these pools will become VERY important; in particular for the LARGE pools (especially if there are only one or two large pools).
So, has anybody identified who is responsible for all the DOS attacks against so many pools? Suddenly Slush is down and Deepbit hits 50% (essentially consumes Slush's miners). A test attack? A real attack? For the purpose of testing this scenario? Probably nothing so nefarious, but it certainly could be. The one benefit of this I think is that some of the smaller pools are growing now and I HOPE that those that went to Deepbit to weather the storm will go back to Slush when things are working and secure [or go to another pool] since Tycho changed his mind about allowing allowing his pool to exceed 50% (and just said it couldn't happen for a long time only days ago .. clearly not thinking to far ahead about security in my opinion).
As long as there is an extremely large pool, I would be careful about how much hard currency is put into the market in an attempt to inflate it. There may be some group out there waiting for the bubble to grow large enough to pop the bubble using the Deepbit pin (using the last 24 hours as an analogy). With two major pools out there, everybody knows that knocking out Slush will inflate Deepbit ... so don't be a pawn if this happens again.
In summary, the bitcoin market is not ready for a large, relatively unsecured pool and the miners are simply worker ants following the sugar and the large pool a potential weapon if not secured TIGHTLY. As the market cap grows, the risk becomes greater as the profit motive increases. This is very unfortunate that this had to come up, but it did. If Deepbit had gone down, this could just as easily be about Slush's pool. We now know that taking down one large pool in a market with two large pools making up more than 50% of the hashing power is enough to drive the other pool up in size to the point of being the victim of a separate attack used to execute this scenario.
When dealing with money and markets, a sharp dose of cynicism is very healthy.
Assume the worst ... any problem with this analysis?