If Recession Kicks In, How Will Bitcoin Perform? - page 3.

7788bitcoin

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Quote from: arallmuus on May 29, 2020, 04:46:29 PM

You forgot that people tend to look for an asset to save their money. That means most people are looking for things that are easy to liquidate into fiat and the price wont really swing big time. You know how thing goes with bitcoin, we have suffered alot of big swing for years and alot of people stay away from bitcoin because of that

Its a fact.

There is no asset in the world that is safe if you are dumb enough to invest at its peak and that is the case you are talking about, if anyone invested in bitcoin when the price rallied and reached its peak, who is to be blamed. Is there any asset in the world that is safe from that ? .

In the case of bitcoin everyone had the opportunity to invest in it when the market when down and if you were not smart enough to invest at that time then there is no point in complaining about it.

If there is a recession then no asset is same from that situation and that includes bitcoin.

cryptoboy007

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Quote from: bitgolden on June 01, 2020, 02:25:58 PM

I am hoping for bitcoin going up, whatever happens. Like recession kicking in, recession not kicking in, money being more valuable, money being less valuable, goods not being available, or extra manufacturing when this ends. I do not really care about anything but just bitcoin going up. I just hope whatever that will help bitcoin going up, end up happening, I don't care what it is in the end because I am heavily invested in bitcoin and if worlds going to burn when bitcoin goes up, let it burn.

I am sick and tired of trying to do the right thing and trying to think the right way, I have done that all my life and somehow people who are wrong about the economy, who are corrupted, who are bribed all got away with their way, its my time and I want my share of the pie now.

LOL... It sounds like a poem to me. Well, I am optimistic as you mate

bearexin

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Quote from: cryptoboy007 on May 29, 2020, 01:25:48 AM

I guess I am just being curious here. Bitcoin was born after the 2008 recession in which many Bitcoin loyalists have argued that Bitcoin was born to cushion the effect of a possible future recession. What are your prediction and analysis concerning the digital asset if for any reason we witness just another deep recession in 2020? Will Bitcoin go down with the global market?

In a typical recession the price of Bitcoin is going to fall because people will sell their coins at such times. Just like someone said, Bitcoin thrives during crisis but you have to beware of recession. Bitcoin is a volatile asset and I don't think people will be buying something that goes up and in the next minute it's crashing.

Investments wouldn't be a thing for most people, they will be selling to fiat so they can be able to deal with some challenges that comes at the time. But a recession won't cause an end to Bitcoin, in fact such a time would be the best time to start Bitcoin after the price has dropped to a very low, because after everything it will still go back up.

exstasie

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Quote from: Hydrogen on June 01, 2020, 06:59:02 PM

The best method of economic recovery AFAIK is empowering small businesses. Start ups and small businesses account for 50%+ of new job creation and is the logical market to tap. The main requisite required is liquidity. If the government truly wants the economy to recover they'll mandate loans with excellent terms for small businesses, coupled with tax cuts/incentives to boost economic growth. This will delegate the problem of economic stimulation and job creation to a high number of intelligent, resourceful and innovative individuals.

There has been something like $700 billion made in small business loans via the stimulus bills, and likely more to come in the next round. I'm worried about the amount of debt being taken on in the case that business owners can't meet the terms for forgiveness.

May unemployment data gets published this Friday. Goldman Sachs' latest estimate for May is 21.5% and while that number could be falling as states reopen, I wonder if it will fall far enough and fast enough to prevent this sort of cycle:

Quote from: Hydrogen on June 01, 2020, 06:59:02 PM

The united states is definitely far better positioned than china to architect a successful recovery. The only question is whether they'll implement the "common sense" policies they claim to support and habitually do the complete opposite of.

China is doubly screwed because slow recoveries in the West means weak demand for Chinese exports. In the end, both countries are completely dependent on a strong consumer recovery.

I'm eager to see incoming retail sales data. These nationwide protests and riots can't be helping. They are keeping businesses closed, not to mention curfews being implemented all over the place.

Hydrogen

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Quote from: exstasie on May 30, 2020, 02:38:22 AM

The issue I'm talking about doesn't really pertain to banking liquidity. I'm talking about a deflationary economic cycle, not a banking crisis, although that is eventually possible too. In the immediate term, unemployment and lack of retail spending is a much bigger issue for both countries since both economies are heavily built on service sectors and consumer spending.

While the official Chinese unemployment rate is at 6%, more realistic analysis puts it closer to 25%.
https://www.scmp.com/economy/china-economy/article/3078251/coronavirus-chinas-unemployment-crisis-mounts-nobody-knows
https://www.statista.com/statistics/251380/number-of-employed-persons-in-china/

Based on unemployment claims (40.8 million claims vs. 164.6 million strong labor force) the US unemployment rate is likely also around 25%.
https://www.washingtonpost.com/business/2020/05/28/unemployment-claims-coronavirus/
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Labor_force_in_the_United_States

This is Great Depression level unemployment. Since it has already been going on for months, and very few economists are willing to forecast a strong recovery, I am expecting a self perpetuating cycle where high unemployment drives down spending, which cripples businesses and results in layoffs and bankruptcies. It's mounting business bankruptcies and associated banking defaults (and also pressure from renter/landlord/mortgagee defaults) that could eventually lead to a banking crisis too, but that's down the road a ways, if at all. American banks are indeed highly liquid presently, although that can change relatively quickly in a brutal and prolonged downturn.

Quote from: Hydrogen on May 29, 2020, 06:42:38 PM

The united states by contrast still has a central bank with liquidity which could be utilized to successfully stimulate markets.

In some of the more grim economic scenarios, I'm skeptical Fed intervention alone will be enough, which I'm sure is why Powell is pushing so hard for fiscal stimulus from Congress. To his dismay it seems like Republicans have reached their political limits for fiscal stimulus. It's going to be interesting (and maybe depressing) to see how it all plays out.

The best method of economic recovery AFAIK is empowering small businesses. Start ups and small businesses account for 50%+ of new job creation and is the logical market to tap. The main requisite required is liquidity. If the government truly wants the economy to recover they'll mandate loans with excellent terms for small businesses, coupled with tax cuts/incentives to boost economic growth. This will delegate the problem of economic stimulation and job creation to a high number of intelligent, resourceful and innovative individuals.

The united states is definitely far better positioned than china to architect a successful recovery. The only question is whether they'll implement the "common sense" policies they claim to support and habitually do the complete opposite of.

cryptoboy007

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Quote from: Vishnu.Reang on June 01, 2020, 08:31:27 AM

Here is my take on this - In case a recession occurs, we can expect Bitcoin exchange rates to plummet. It may go below $3,000 per coin (the lowest levels we had during the last 3 years). Because when the economy collapses, people are likely to go for stable assets such as gold and silver, which can also act as a store of value. High risk assets such as cryptocurrency will have few backers then.

Don't you think the safe-haven narrative of Gold is beginning to rub off on Bitcoin? People are beginning to perceive Bitcoin as a good hedge against currency devaluation.

bitgolden

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I am hoping for bitcoin going up, whatever happens. Like recession kicking in, recession not kicking in, money being more valuable, money being less valuable, goods not being available, or extra manufacturing when this ends. I do not really care about anything but just bitcoin going up. I just hope whatever that will help bitcoin going up, end up happening, I don't care what it is in the end because I am heavily invested in bitcoin and if worlds going to burn when bitcoin goes up, let it burn.

I am sick and tired of trying to do the right thing and trying to think the right way, I have done that all my life and somehow people who are wrong about the economy, who are corrupted, who are bribed all got away with their way, its my time and I want my share of the pie now.

Barnabe

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Quote from: Vishnu.Reang on June 01, 2020, 08:31:27 AM

Here is my take on this - In case a recession occurs, we can expect Bitcoin exchange rates to plummet. It may go below $3,000 per coin (the lowest levels we had during the last 3 years). Because when the economy collapses, people are likely to go for stable assets such as gold and silver, which can also act as a store of value. High risk assets such as cryptocurrency will have few backers then.

I don't think this is entirely true. Some people will certainly sell bitcoin because they won't have income due to the possible recession, but I don't think they will buy gold or silver. People will probably sell BTC to pay the bills. But I also think that cryptocurrency prices will drop if a recession happens.

Vishnu.Reang

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Here is my take on this - In case a recession occurs, we can expect Bitcoin exchange rates to plummet. It may go below $3,000 per coin (the lowest levels we had during the last 3 years). Because when the economy collapses, people are likely to go for stable assets such as gold and silver, which can also act as a store of value. High risk assets such as cryptocurrency will have few backers then.

tbterryboy

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Quote from: cryptoboy007 on May 29, 2020, 01:25:48 AM

I guess I am just being curious here. Bitcoin was born after the 2008 recession in which many Bitcoin loyalists have argued that Bitcoin was born to cushion the effect of a possible future recession. What are your prediction and analysis concerning the digital asset if for any reason we witness just another deep recession in 2020? Will Bitcoin go down with the global market?

From the experience what I have learned from the 2008 recession, I guess bitcoin will become more attractive like gold if there is a recession kicks in. Before analyzing about how bitcoin will perform, it would be much better to understand what is the recession and what are its consequence on our day-to-day life. Recession is nothing but economic slowdown which means corporate will not get enough orders and they will go for layoff which will end up in more unemployment. When people are jobless, their buying capacity will be low which will again induce more economic slowdown.

So, stock market may not perform well which will enforce investors to go for other opportunities which means they may look for bitcoin and gold. It means money in-flow will switch over from stocks and government bonds to alternate investments like bitcoins. So, bitcoin may have big value but we may need to pay higher rates for our daily needs. Because usually recession will end up in costlier food and services.

BlocResearch

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It is going to be bullish of Bitcoin because the financial world is going to tremble and it is going to change after the coronavirus crisis is over, there were already various gaps in the industry. This has only worsened it more.

This is a shame, what is happening but then we need to understand that everything happens in the world for a reason. Bitcoin goes down for a reason, that is market sentiment and market behavior because, in the end, Bitcoin is also like a living person. It is here because we want it to be here as a beacon of hope against the banks and the corrupt but it is all complex world of life that we live in.

ser7878

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Quote from: PavelMed on May 31, 2020, 12:44:02 PM

It will be difficult for all of us to guess how Bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies will behave. Whether they will pay attention to cryptocurrency or investors will not pay attention. Do they want to develop this topic in general, but I don’t think that everyone will forget about Bitcoin, it would be stupid.

this one is quite close to my opinion
I would add one thing - after 2008 recession bitcoin was innovative and came from unexplored internet.
Now we do live online and most of people are quite comfortable to hear such words as blockchain, mining, crypto, bitcoin and etc.
so It won't be as bullish as was before, but I won't believe it will fall because of current recession
time shows one pattern - people will to save their funds so they buy crypto instead of fiat

Mauser

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Quote from: cryptoboy007 on May 29, 2020, 01:25:48 AM

Hello Everyone,

I guess I am just being curious here. Bitcoin was born after the 2008 recession in which many Bitcoin loyalists have argued that Bitcoin was born to cushion the effect of a possible future recession. What are your prediction and analysis concerning the digital asset if for any reason we witness just another deep recession in 2020? Will Bitcoin go down with the global market?

The crisis 2008 was a financial crisis, spreading around the world through the banking sector. Triggering a flight to safety with investors selling risky assets across board for government backed assets.

The crisis we are facing at the moment is affecting the hole world but directly hitting different sectors than the 2008 crisis. Commerce and Tourism took immediate hits with the lock down. Which is spreading through the economy much faster than in the previous crisis.

People lost their jobs within weeks of the lock down resulting in an overall drop in demand. And since the governments are in printing so much money now to desperately saving big companies.

I don't think investor will sell off their risky assets. We will see people not investing in risky asset for a while, which means also no big rise in bitcoins. But I also think that people will not sell their BTC holdings.

For this year I believe the BTC price will just stay on a similar level as in the last weeks.

fiulpro

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Contrary to what news and media is saying I do think recession is already here.

It's here for the people who have lost their jobs , it's here for the people who are eating only one meal a day and it is here for one's who cannot afford their next meal .

I do not agree with the definition on Google * a period of temporary economic decline during which trade and industrial activity are reduced, generally identified by a fall in GDP in two successive quarters.*
I do know that recession is something that affects everyone individually.

_________________________________________________________

Back to your question.

I do think Bitcoins is doing amazing when it comes to people and the jobs it's offering them .

It definitely have earned respect on various levels , well at least for me. It's enabling people to trade , to send money with the safety of their homes , the Campaigns are providing job opportunities for a lot of people, the bounty Campaigns are actually replacing full time jobs for some.

For students like me , it's a blessing, with not much time to invest in part time jobs , Bitcoins have greatly helped in earning a little extra.

I have seen managers going around and helping people. People making donations, people doing a lot of good in the community.

I do think it's already preforming better than any Currency I know of.

Let us hope it grows in the upcoming years more and more.

_________________________________________________________

PavelMed

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It will be difficult for all of us to guess how Bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies will behave. Whether they will pay attention to cryptocurrency or investors will not pay attention. Do they want to develop this topic in general, but I don’t think that everyone will forget about Bitcoin, it would be stupid.

mycryptocoin

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I think Bitcoin, cryptocurrencies or any other financial instrument is a product of the oligarch - those who hold 90% of the world's total assets or we are known as the rothschild family. It is a tool for them to make money. We also cannot deny the power, superiority, breakthrough of Blockchain technology, about its benefits. I think that is the value of Bitcoin, not the value of money. Bitcoin or crypto was born to replace the current money system, bringing fairness and transparency to money and finance. But think about it, we live in a world where money is power. The more possessions you hold in your hand, the greater the power. If a country has monetary autonomy in its hands, it is a very powerful nation. So, how does Bitcoin or cryptocurrencies - things that provide decentralization (rather than centralization), transparency, and equity - can replace the current currency - which will bring power to itself covered. Therefore, I believe that in the future, cryptocurrencies are still just a tool to make money, not a substitute for money.

Jorge158

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Global recession is already manifesting with most of the powerful countries struggling to put to shape their economic status. This is largely due to the slowed production, huge lay offs across the world, lockdowns and quarantines, illness and death of the workforce etc. Amidst this recession, Bitcoin is already performing well by keeping a good trend on the market now.

CaVO32

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Quote from: target on May 30, 2020, 12:48:24 PM

Quote from: DoublerHunter on May 30, 2020, 12:28:54 PM

Quote from: azmirihaque on May 30, 2020, 09:10:21 AM

I think there has a less possibility to happen another deep recession in 2020. It is right, world economy is walking in cripple because of locking down its leg. But now most of the countries are loosing its tight from the economy and economy is going to recover its own speed. So, crypto market will not face any recession and will continue to keep its full speed like now.

^ Probably, but either bitcoin will get through or die it is still on our hand how will bitcoin survive if another great recession will kicks in for it may die if people won't be able to maintain their internet because of unemployment or probably the rise on the internet cost. However, if bitcoin will maintain its decentralized value then people may adopt bitcoin globally and it will suffice the needs on the market exchange. In conclusion, no one may presume on the future of bitcoin after a recession but with all the advantages that bitcoin has shown and proved us, I am positive that it will, probably not as fast as what everybody is expecting it may be in a slower phase yet bitcoin will still pull through.

Our government is starting to shift to general quarantine to which businesses are starting to open to operate. There could be a chance that we may save the economy from crashing if all will be fine. But if the recession persists, we will be seeing more dumps to crypto because everyone will really be chasing the fiat they can spend. I wouldn't be risking keeping my coins as well while I have to buy stuff to survive.

It really depends on the situation of crypto user. But I believe most small time crypto users were and are already cashing out some of their stash to address their basic needs. And since countries are starting to loosen up from their restrictions, we will see the economy to be alive again, though not really the same as before but it is good to see the slow pace of opening up of economy of many countries. I think bitcoin has already surpassed a lot of recessions already and still standing on its ground, so I don't think another recession will crumble bitcoin.

exstasie

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Quote from: gentlemand on May 29, 2020, 08:33:56 AM

If more big money chooses to play with BTC it might latch on to that la la land.

Whatever happens the little guy is unlikely to be driving anything this time.

Retail always has a role to play with such an illiquid market as BTC.

My opinion is various Wall Street entities (mostly hedge funds) are accumulating, and probably have been for 1-2 years. They buy up supply throughout the sideways bear market, then once supply in this range is dried up, they mark up the price into a higher range (> $10.5K, > $13.8K).

Historically this is where exchange supply begins disappearing as holders begin anticipating a bubble. At this point, those Wall Street accumulators won't be buying. They'll be waiting to distribute. It's retail FOMO investors that will be increasingly driving the market and crazily enough history shows they can.

As important as demand is to market bubbles, weak supply is the determining characteristic of BTC bubbles. Even under normal circumstances, only a small fraction of the 18 million BTC in existence ever hit exchanges, so when everyone is refusing to sell, the sky is the limit.

cryptoboy007

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Quote from: davis196 on May 29, 2020, 07:03:00 AM

Quote from: cryptoboy007 on May 29, 2020, 01:25:48 AM

Hello Everyone,

I guess I am just being curious here. Bitcoin was born after the 2008 recession in which many Bitcoin loyalists have argued that Bitcoin was born to cushion the effect of a possible future recession. What are your prediction and analysis concerning the digital asset if for any reason we witness just another deep recession in 2020? Will Bitcoin go down with the global market?

The recession already kicked in and it will continue "kicking" during the next few years.
Nobody can say or predict how Bitcoin will react to this recession.If anyone could predict this,he can become a billionaire.The investors might run away from risky assets and start buying more gold.Bitcoin is considered a risky asset,so I don't think that most of the investors are going to be willing to buy more BTC.
For me,the most important thing is that the Bitcoin Core blockchain will survive in the long term.
The BTC price goes up and down every week,so long term predictions are impossible to make.

Amidst the ongoing pandemic, Bitcoin seems to be the best performing asset so far, don't you think the safe-haven narrative of gold could also be said of Bitcoin?

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