If the bull market recur periodically, how long dose a cycle take? - page 2.

nicster551

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Quote from: Blocktopian88 on October 21, 2018, 12:11:04 PM

If the bull market recur periodically, like what happened in late 2017, how long dose a cycle would take? It seems at least longer than a year now..

No one knows, but maybe it will occur step by step and months by months like what happened when it rallied last year. Hope that it will be long though.

Jating

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Quote from: Blocktopian88 on October 21, 2018, 12:11:04 PM

If the bull market recur periodically, like what happened in late 2017, how long dose a cycle would take? It seems at least longer than a year now..

If we're going to look at the historical logs, bull run seems to occur every 2 years. But its not a good estimates as we all know that past performances doesn't mean future success in this market.

But if you look at the next possible bull run which is 2020, we will be having the next "bitcoin halving" that may trigger the a bull run. I'm sure that the demand will increase as bitcoin will be scarce and limited so everyone will want to get their hands on that "precious" bitcoins.

bitbunnny

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You can't predict the next bull run, at least not for sure. In fact, it's like any other prediction, something you can't rely on.
It's true that many things connected with Bitcoin happen periodicaly but you can't predict the next cycle of bull run, you don't have any relevant data for that. Besides, it's too many factors you can't control and envisage like investors and market.

St4yInTh3D4rk

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Quote from: Blocktopian88 on October 21, 2018, 12:11:04 PM

If the bull market recur periodically, like what happened in late 2017, how long dose a cycle would take? It seems at least longer than a year now..

As others stated there is not enough data we have yet for predicting the cycle of crypt currencies but actually the bull run after 2013 is at 2018 which almost going throughout this year but it will be expected to soon before the time taken of bear run so we may hope for a better run at the beginning or at first quarter of 2019.

jseverson

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Quote from: hotforblockchain on October 21, 2018, 05:05:53 PM

If we compare crypto time scale to dot com bubble time scale, we are 3-6 months way from The start.

Start of what?

The bull market being recurring seems to imply that it's completely natural and that it just happens. Well it doesn't; there are always several factors beside each one, so unless you're able to predict an event that will spark a sustained rally, you really won't know when it will happen. It certainly doesn't come with time, unless it has been established that investors tend to do this and that every few periods or whatever.

For what it's worth, some people believe that an ETF approval will start a bull run. We don't know for sure if it will though, of course.

Kakmakr

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No matter what people say, there are no predictable pattern. Bitcoin is based on supply & demand and that determines the value. The stock markets usually have a 10 year cycle, where stock prices will grow and after about 10 years a correction will happen. Bitcoin is not even 10 years old, so we do not have enough long-term data to predict anything.

I say, wait another 20 years and see if you can recognise a fixed pattern then, because it is way too early to do it down, with the data that we have now. Roll Eyes

blackbold

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Quote from: Blocktopian88 on October 21, 2018, 12:11:04 PM

If the bull market recur periodically, like what happened in late 2017, how long dose a cycle would take? It seems at least longer than a year now..

to exceed the highest price record as in 2017, it takes a lot of breakouts, because at the time of the decreasing prices, there are many breakouts that penetrate the resistance line

pooya87

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there is no rule for these things, even in other markets and even if bitcoin was a much bigger and older market. a bull market depends on a lot of factors and those factors determine the size and length of the trend. for instance last year we had multiple bull runs, starting with the "close to previous ATH and breaking it bull run" then followed by the "mass adoption in Japan" bull run and finally the "SegWit bull run" and each of these took a different amount of time. some may consider all these as one big bull run but if you see the bubbles of each round and the correction of them with the downtrend and the accumulation phases you can see they weren't exactly linked.

Cryptopiana

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The last Bitcoin bear market lasted a few years of slow sideways.
There certainly isn't any exact math to "guessing" how long this one or the next one will last.

Instead just sit back and keep an eye out for big moves, once it starts "really" moving and breaks out of this sideways you'll know real quick.

RomanPoman

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Quote from: Yurkov on October 21, 2018, 07:19:39 PM

If it was possible to predict the length of the cycle, then there would be only millionaires on this forum

In the speculation section there are thousands of posts about what will happen in the near future. And as usual, some believe that at the end of this year the price of BTC will be above $10k, and others that it will fall to $4k. I think that the truth is in the middle and the price should start growing slowly now. So in my opinion, we are at the beginning of new cicle.

This.
No one can exactly predict the timeframes of each market cycle but it is likely that the price will grow more steadily with all of the recent hype having cooled off.

crwth

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Quote from: YuginKadoya on October 21, 2018, 07:06:08 PM

Many in this forum seem curious about the pattern of the bull run but I guess there is no certain pattern towards it, and maybe it just comes and goes it is just an event that happens without a warning and last for just a couple month, But I really think even if we are not in the bull market bitcoin still have a decent price, to begin with and we should consider looking forward on the future price than worrying so much about the dropping price for now, And in my opinion for the time being it is a great time in acquiring bitcoin because we can never know when the bull run starts.

I have read it that since September, a lot of people are expecting that Bitcoin would rise in price and other cryptocurrencies as well. No one would be able to predict unless some whales have some different intention with its price. I like the idea to acquire more and more in a cryptocurrency, it's best to be like that.

Quote from: Yurkov on October 21, 2018, 07:19:39 PM

If it was possible to predict the length of the cycle, then there would be only millionaires on this forum

In the speculation section there are thousands of posts about what will happen in the near future. And as usual, some believe that at the end of this year the price of BTC will be above $10k, and others that it will fall to $4k. I think that the truth is in the middle and the price should start growing slowly now. So in my opinion, we are at the beginning of new cicle.

I think that was the different indicators are for in a chart, but you can never be sure of that. I have met with some experienced traders that they have a strategy and a method to determine what's going to happen but that's all a load of crap calling their failed calls to other names, but what all they have in common is they know how to discipline themselves and put trade cut loss if they know it was a wrong call.

Yurkov

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If it was possible to predict the length of the cycle, then there would be only millionaires on this forum

In the speculation section there are thousands of posts about what will happen in the near future. And as usual, some believe that at the end of this year the price of BTC will be above $10k, and others that it will fall to $4k. I think that the truth is in the middle and the price should start growing slowly now. So in my opinion, we are at the beginning of new cicle.

YuginKadoya

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Many in this forum seem curious about the pattern of the bull run but I guess there is no certain pattern towards it, and maybe it just comes and goes it is just an event that happens without a warning and last for just a couple month, But I really think even if we are not in the bull market bitcoin still have a decent price, to begin with and we should consider looking forward on the future price than worrying so much about the dropping price for now, And in my opinion for the time being it is a great time in acquiring bitcoin because we can never know when the bull run starts.

SlickMoTwoToe

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Quote from: kingvirtus09 on October 21, 2018, 06:41:06 PM

I'm seeing this a positive result of market cycle, This includes the stock market falls and global recession will getting started soon- Most huge pump are more likely a hype but the next mega bull is for the economic crisis- Most traders will jump into a new hedge fund and by the way i don't follow TA

I'm agree with you it will be a mega bull run because they will prepare for the economic crisis and long run again, I think it will have a new cycle again let us wait what will happen for now there is no sign that the price of coin would increase it was just stable and we didn't know if we will have a bull this year or it will happen next year or in 2020.

SlickMoTwoToe

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Quote from: Blocktopian88 on October 21, 2018, 12:11:04 PM

If the bull market recur periodically, like what happened in late 2017, how long dose a cycle would take? It seems at least longer than a year now..

I think the bull is still not show because if you are referring on what happened in 2017 it was not a bull it was just hype so the bull run still nothing, well let us wait when the bull run came I think it will have a big impact because we didn't now how much it will be or let say it will be the greatest history of bitcoin and will last longer.

kingvirtus09

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I'm seeing this a positive result of market cycle, This includes the stock market falls and global recession will getting started soon- Most huge pump are more likely a hype but the next mega bull is for the economic crisis- Most traders will jump into a new hedge fund and by the way i don't follow TA

darkangel11

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Quote from: posi on October 21, 2018, 05:36:22 PM

Quote from: Blocktopian88 on October 21, 2018, 12:11:04 PM

If the bull market recur periodically, like what happened in late 2017, how long dose a cycle would take? It seems at least longer than a year now..

Base on the year 2017 market price movement the bull run happened. The bull run usually take at least a year when it recur but with dump in price that last long in the crypto market this days there's possibility the bull run cycle to increase than before after the market gain it total strengthen.

Not really. There's no "usually" here. In May 2012 there was a huge bull run, much like the one in 2017, but bigger. The price went from 1 to almost 29 USD, which is much greater than the 2017 rally. For this to be comparable, in 2017 the price that started to climb from ~3k USD would have to stop at 87k USD! That's how much money people made in 2012, and the bear market that followed lasted from June to December of the same year, so only 6 months! A bull market that took boosted the price 3 times more than the 2013 rally was followed by a bear market 4 times shorter. Your usually is based on 2014. You can't draw a pattern based on a single case.

dothebeats

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The market is too young for a periodic pattern to be drawn. TA won't even come close into predicting near an actual time-frame since the market reacts spontaneously, though we might get some form of approximation out of the past trends. There are also many factors affecting the run towards another ATH knowing that a lot of people are now involved in the market and it's not limited to enthusiasts and a few businessmen at all, which makes it even harder to come to a close approximation of when a bull run woupd start. Add to that fact that there are instances that a great price performance would occur only to be dumped hard later. A lot of mixed signals in an already convoluted free market makes things harder for people who want to draw a line of (un)certainty.

keyscore44

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Many traders calculate this on the basis of technical analysis, which unfortunately does not work on the cryptocurrency market. However, if we consider the technical analysis, we can expect further price drops and about 2 years until the next ATH. In my opinion, this period will be much shorter and next ATH we will be able to observe next year. But, it is only my private opinion.

darkangel11

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There are too many variables to predict how long the cycle will last. People have different ideas about it like the one that the bear market seems to be getting longer. At least id was getting longer when we compare previous bear markets and 2014-15, but it doesn't mean anything. 2015 formed a continuation after a slight recovery in 2014 because we got Chinese bans and Chinese FUD that prolonged it. This is a great example of the influence that the media and the fundamentals have on the market.

At the moment we are in what looks like a bearish triangle with a falling volume, which indicates an imminent breakout. TA will tell you that such triangles usually break to the downside, but usually doesn't mean always. Since we're in a bear market bearsh news will mean that we'll go down from here, no news will probably have the same result, but bullish news can take us up. We haven't had a correction of this downtrend for almost 2 months and we are due for one.

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